Recent Publications

The Turning Point for Russian Foreign Policy
May 25, 2017 — Author: Mr Keir GilesView the Executive Summary This Letort Paper analyzes the drivers of assertive military action by Russia, as exemplified by interventions in Ukraine and Syria. It identifies key turning points in Russia’s perception of external threat, and the roots of Russian responses to this threat making use of a capacity for military,... MORE

Prospects for the Rule of Law in Cyberspace
January 24, 2017 — Author: Mr Keir GilesView the Executive Summary The application of international law and legal principles in cyberspace is a topic that has caused confusion, doubt, and interminable discussions between lawyers since the earliest days of the internationalization of the Internet. The still unresolved debate over whether cyberspace constitutes a... MORE

Training Humans for the Human Domain
November 2, 2015 — Authors: Mr Keir Giles, Dr Steve TathamView the Executive Summary Experience from Afghanistan and Iraq has demonstrated the vital nature of understanding human terrain, with conclusions relevant far beyond counterinsurgency operations in the Islamic world. Any situation where adversary actions are described as “irrational” demonstrates a... MORE

Cyber Defense: An International View
September 14, 2015 — Authors: Mr Keir Giles, Ms Kim HartmannView the Executive Summary An overview of four different national approaches to cyber defense are discussed: those of Norway, Estonia, Germany and Sweden. While providing a useful guide for engagement with the relevant governmental and other organizations in each of these countries, the Paper also compares and... MORE

Russian Ballistic Missile Defense: Rhetoric and Reality
June 29, 2015 — Author: Mr Keir GilesView the Executive SummaryRussia's actions in Ukraine are not the only challenge to relations with the United States. U.S. plans for ballistic missile defense (BMD) capability in Europe have led to aggressive rhetoric from Moscow, which continues at the time of this writing even though attention in the West is focused almost... MORE

A Russian View on Landpower
April 9, 2015 — Authors: Mr Keir Giles, Maj Gen Aleksandr V RogovoyView the Executive SummaryRussia’s seizure of Crimea, and ongoing operations in eastern Ukraine, have refocused attention on the Russian military as a potential cause for concern in Europe. This Letort Paper, by an influential Russian general and military academic, lays out specifically Russian... MORE

Prospects for Iran’s New Direction
February 20, 2015 — Author: Mr Keir Giles View the Executive SummaryThis monograph, completed ahead of the November 2014 deadline, examines some of the underlying factors which will be constant in dealing with a nuclear capable Iran under President Hassan Rouhani, and which will help determine the success or failure of talks in 2015. It analyzes Rouhani's eventful... MORE

European Missile Defense and Russia
July 1, 2014 — Authors: Mr Keir Giles, Dr Andrew Monaghan View the Executive SummaryThis monograph examines the history of missile defense and the current dialogue from a Russian perspective, in order to explain the root causes of Russian alarm. Specific recommendations for managing the Russia relationship in the context of missile defense are given. Important... MORE

Russian Military Transformation – Goal In Sight?
May 1, 2014 — Authors: Mr Keir Giles, Dr Andrew Monaghan View the Executive SummaryThe Russian Armed Forces have been undergoing major structural reform since 2008. Despite change at the most senior levels of leadership, the desired endstate for Russia's military is now clear; but this endstate is determined by a flawed political perception of the key threats... MORE

Cover for Russian Military Transformation - Goal In Sight?

Legality in Cyberspace: An Adversary View
March 1, 2014 — Author: Mr Keir Giles, Dr Andrew MonaghanView the Executive Summary While conflict in cyberspace is not new, the legality of hostile cyber activity at a state level remains imperfectly defined. While there is broad agreement among the United States and its allies that cyber warfare would be governed by existing laws of armed conflict, with no need... MORE

Russian Interests in Sub-Saharan Africa
July 12, 2013 — Author: Mr Keir Giles View the Executive SummaryAn apparent lack of interest by Russia in Sub-Saharan Africa over recent years masks persistent key strategic drivers for Moscow to re-establish lost influence in the region. A preoccupation with more immediate foreign policy concerns has temporarily interrupted a process of Russia reclaiming... MORE