Recent Publications

Thucydides Was Right: Defining the Future Threat
April 3, 2015 — Author: Dr Colin S GrayView the Executive SummaryTo define future threat is, in a sense, an impossible task, yet it is one that must be done. The only sources of empirical evidence accessible are the past and the present; one cannot obtain understanding about the future from the future. The author draws upon the understanding of strategic history... MORE

Mastering the Gray Zone: Understanding a Changing Era of Conflict

Always Strategic: Jointly Essential Landpower
February 11, 2015 — Author: Dr Colin S Gray View the Executive SummaryAmerican Landpower is a strategic instrument of state policy and needs to be considered as such. This monograph explores and explains the nature of Landpower, both in general terms and also with particular regard to the American case. The monograph argues that: (1) Landpower is unique in the... MORE

Defense Planning for National Security: Navigation Aids for the Mystery Tour
March 1, 2014 — Author: Dr Colin S Gray View the Executive SummaryThe challenge that is defense planning includes: "educated futurology" and the humanities as methodological approaches; futurists and scenarios, trend spotting and defense analysis; the impossibility of science in studying the future; the impossibility of verification by empirical testing of... MORE

Cover for Defense Planning for National Security: Navigation Aids for the Mystery Tour

Making Strategic Sense of Cyber Power: Why the Sky Is Not Falling
April 1, 2013 — Author: Dr Colin S Gray View the Executive SummaryCyber is now recognized as an operational domain, but the theory that should explain it strategically is, for the most part, missing. It is one thing to know how to digitize; it is quite another to understand what digitization means strategically. The author maintains that, although the technical... MORE

Categorical Confusion? The Strategic Implications of Recognizing Challenges Either as Irregular or Traditional
February 1, 2012 — Author: Dr Colin S Gray Strategic theory should educate to enable effective strategic practice, but much of contemporary theory promotes confusion, not clarity, of suitable understanding. A little strategic theory goes a long way, at least it does if it is austere and focused on essentials. Unfortunately, contemporary strategic conceptualization in... MORE

Cover for Categorical Confusion? The Strategic Implications of Recognizing Challenges Either as Irregular or Traditional

Hard Power and Soft Power: The Utility of Military Force as an Instrument of Policy in the 21st Century
April 1, 2011 — Author: Dr Colin S Gray Power is one of the more contestable concepts in political theory. In recent decades, scholars and commentators have chosen to distinguish between two kinds of power, “hard” and “soft.” The former is achieved through military threat or use, and by means of economic menace or reward. The latter is the ability tohave influence... MORE

Schools for Strategy: Teaching Strategy for 21st Century Conflict
November 1, 2009 — Author: Dr Colin S Gray All would-be strategists would benefit by some formal education. However, for education in strategy to be well-directed, it needs to rest upon sound assumptions concerning the eternal nature yet ever shifting character, meaning, and function of strategy, as well as the range of behaviors required for effective strategic... MORE

After Iraq: The Search for a Sustainable National Security Strategy
January 1, 2009 — Author: Dr Colin S Gray A sustainable national security strategy is feasible only when directed by a sustainable national security policy. In the absence of policy guidance, strategy will be meaningless. The only policy that meets both the mandates of American culture and the challenges of the outside world is one that seeks to lead the necessary... MORE

The Implications of Preemptive and Preventive War Doctrines: A Reconsideration
July 1, 2007 — Author: Dr Colin S Gray Preemption and prevention are different concepts. To preempt is to attempt to strike first against an enemy who is in the process of preparing, or is actually launching, an attack against you. Preemption is not controversial. The decision for war has been taken out of your hands. Prevention, however, is a decision to wage... MORE

Irregular Enemies and the Essence of Strategy: Can the American Way of War Adapt?
March 1, 2006 — Author: Dr Colin S Gray The author offers a detailed comparison between the character of irregular warfare, insurgency in particular, and the principal enduring features of "the American way." He concludes that there is a serious mismatch between that "way" and the kind of behavior that is most effective in countering irregular foes. The author... MORE

Recognizing and Understanding Revolutionary Change in Warfare: The Sovereignty of Context
February 1, 2006 — Author: Dr Colin S Gray The author provides a critical audit of the great RMA debate and of some actual RMA behavior and warns against a transformation that is highly potent only in a narrow range of strategic cases. He warns that the military effectiveness of a process of revolutionary change in a "way of war" can only be judged by the test of... MORE

Transformation and Strategic Surprise
April 1, 2005 — Author: Dr Colin S Gray The current process of military transformation will enable the Armed Forces to do better what they already do superbly well. It is important to excel at decisive maneuver and in the application of precise, yet overwhelming firepower. But those attributes, though key in warfare against regular enemies, tend to be less... MORE