Recent Publications

Defense Planning for National Security: Navigation Aids for the Mystery Tour
March 1, 2014 — Author: Dr Colin S Gray View the Executive SummaryThe challenge that is defense planning includes: "educated futurology" and the humanities as methodological approaches; futurists and scenarios, trend spotting and defense analysis; the impossibility of science in studying the future; the impossibility of verification by empirical testing of... MORE

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Categorical Confusion? The Strategic Implications of Recognizing Challenges Either as Irregular or Traditional
February 1, 2012 — Author: Dr Colin S Gray Strategic theory should educate to enable effective strategic practice, but much of contemporary theory promotes confusion, not clarity, of suitable understanding. A little strategic theory goes a long way, at least it does if it is austere and focused on essentials. Unfortunately, contemporary strategic conceptualization in... MORE

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Irregular Enemies and the Essence of Strategy: Can the American Way of War Adapt?
March 1, 2006 — Author: Dr Colin S Gray The author offers a detailed comparison between the character of irregular warfare, insurgency in particular, and the principal enduring features of "the American way." He concludes that there is a serious mismatch between that "way" and the kind of behavior that is most effective in countering irregular foes. The author... MORE

Recognizing and Understanding Revolutionary Change in Warfare: The Sovereignty of Context
February 1, 2006 — Author: Dr Colin S Gray The author provides a critical audit of the great RMA debate and of some actual RMA behavior and warns against a transformation that is highly potent only in a narrow range of strategic cases. He warns that the military effectiveness of a process of revolutionary change in a "way of war" can only be judged by the test of... MORE

Defining and Achieving Decisive Victory
April 1, 2002 — Author: Dr Colin S Gray The author explores the concept of victory in the war in terrorism, but he does so by placing it within the larger currents of change that are sweeping the global security environment. He contends that the time-tested idea of decisive victory is still an important one, but must be designed very carefully in this dangerous... MORE