Recent Publications

The Struggle for Yemen and the Challenge of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula
June 21, 2013 — Author: Dr W Andrew Terrill View the Executive SummaryIn recent years, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has been widely recognized as a more dangerous regional and international terrorist organization than the original al-Qaeda led by Osama bin Laden until his death in 2011. In 2010-11, AQAP was able to present a strong challenge to Yemen's... MORE

Lessons of the Iraqi De-Ba’athification Program for Iraq’s Future and the Arab Revolutions
May 1, 2012 — Author: Dr W Andrew TerrillThis monograph considers both the future of Iraq and the differences and similarities between events in Iraq and the Arab Spring states. The author analyzes the nature of Iraqi de-Ba’athification and carefully evaluates the rationales and results of actions taken by both Americans and Iraqis involved in the process. While... MORE

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The Saudi-Iranian Rivalry and the Future of Middle East Security
December 1, 2011 — Author: Dr W Andrew Terrill Saudi Arabia and Iran have often behaved as serious rivals for influence in the Middle East and especially the Gulf area since at least Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution and the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War. While both nations define themselves as Islamic, the differences between their foreign policies could hardly be more... MORE

The Conflicts in Yemen and U.S. National Security
January 1, 2011 — Author: Dr W Andrew Terrill Yemen is not currently a failed state, but it is experiencing huge political and economic problems that can have a direct impact on U.S. interests in the region. It has a rapidly expanding population with a resource base that is limited and already leaves much of the current population in poverty. The government obtains... MORE

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America’s Most Committed Muslim Ally
November 1, 2010 — Author: Dr W Andrew Terrill Each month a member of the SSI faculty writes an editorial for our monthly newsletter. This is the Op-Ed for the November 2010 newsletter.Read Now MORE

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Escalation and Intrawar Deterrence During Limited Wars in the Middle East
September 1, 2009 — Author: Dr W Andrew Terrill A central purpose of this monograph is to reexamine two earlier conflicts for insights that may be relevant for ongoing dangers during limited wars involving nations possessing chemical or biological weapons or emerging nuclear arsenals. These conflicts are the 1973 Arab-Israeli War and the 1991 Gulf War. Both of these... MORE

Preventing Iraq from Slipping Back into Sectarian Chaos
May 1, 2009 — Author: Dr W Andrew Terrill Each month a member of the SSI faculty writes an editorial for our monthly newsletter. This is the Op-Ed for the May 2009 newsletter.Read Now MORE

Regional Spillover Effects of the Iraq War
December 1, 2008 — Author: Dr W Andrew Terrill The Iraq war has been one of the dominant factors influencing U.S. strategic thinking in the Middle East and globally since 2003. Yet the problems of this highly dynamic and fluid war have sometimes forced U.S. policymakers to address near-term issues that cannot be safely postponed at the expense of long-term strategic... MORE

Deterrence, Missile Defense, and Collateral Damage in the Iranian-Israeli Strategic Relationship
February 1, 2008 — Author: Dr W Andrew Terrill Each month a member of the SSI faculty writes an editorial for our monthly newsletter. This is the Op-Ed for the February 2008 newsletter.Read Now MORE

Cover for Deterrence, Missile Defense, and Collateral Damage in the Iranian-Israeli Strategic Relationship

Jordanian National Security and the Future of Middle East Stability
January 1, 2008 — Author: Dr W Andrew Terrill The United States and Jordan have maintained a valuable mutually-supportive relationship for decades as a result of shared interests in a moderate, prosperous, and stable Middle East. In this monograph, the author highlights Jordan’s ongoing value as a U.S. ally and considers ways that the U.S.-Jordanian alliance might... MORE

The Evolution of U.S.-Turkish Relations in a Transatlantic Context
November 1, 2007 — Author: Dr W Andrew Terrill Key Insights:• Turkish accession to the European Union (EU) remains a central question in determining the future of Turkish relations with Western Europe and the United States. Any support that the United States can give to the acceleration of Turkish accession will be valuable and helpful to these ties.• While... MORE

Kuwaiti National Security and the U.S.-Kuwaiti Strategic Relationship after Saddam
September 1, 2007 — Author: Dr W Andrew Terrill The U.S.-Kuwaiti military and political relationship has been of considerable value to both countries since at least 1990. This alliance was formed in the aftermath of Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein’s brutal invasion of Kuwait and the U.S. decision to free Kuwait with military force in 1991. Saddam’s later defeat and... MORE