Recent Publications

Pretexts for War and the Preinvasion Crisis in Ukraine
December 5, 2024 — The US strategy in the run-up to the invasion of Ukraine appeared to undermine Russian efforts to justify the war. While studies of international crises typically focus on the goals of deterrence and escalation management, recent events in Ukraine show that counterjustification is another important objective. Russia used covert activities and deception to try and create a pretext for its invasion, and the United States aggressively countered these efforts... MORE

Pretexts for War and the Preinvasion Crisis in Ukraine | Ron Gurantz

The Approaching Implosion of Venezuela and Strategic Implications for the United States
July 10, 2015 — Dr. R. Evan EllisThe U.S. response to the ever deepening political and economic crisis in Venezuela, and the regime’s increasingly aggressive behavior toward its neighbors and the international community, is compelling evidence that the Barack Obama administration is sincere in respecting the sovereignty of nations of Latin America and the... MORE

U.S. Governmental Information Operations and Strategic Communications: A Discredited Tool or User Failure? Implications for Future Conflict
December 3, 2013 — Author: Dr Steve Tatham View the Executive SummaryThrough the prism of operations in Afghanistan, the author examines how the U.S. Government’s Strategic Communication (SC) and, in particular, the Department of Defense’s (DoD) Information Operations (IO) and Military Information Support to Operations (MISO) programs, have contributed to U.S... MORE

What Is Next for Mali? The Roots of Conflict and Challenges to Stability
November 20, 2013 — Author: Dr Dona J Stewart View the Executive SummaryIn March 2012, the government of Mali, one of the most touted symbols of Africa’s democratic potential, fell in a military-executed coup. At the same time, a 4-decades old rebellion among Tuaregs seeking autonomy or independence reached new heights fueled by weapons from Libya and the belief that... MORE

Avoiding the Slippery Slope: Conducting Effective Interventions
June 4, 2013 — Author: Dr Thomas R Mockaitis View the Executive SummaryThis Letort Paper covers U.S. military interventions in civil conflicts since the end of the Cold War. It defines intervention as the use of military force to achieve a specific objective (i.e., deliver humanitarian aid, support revolutionaries or insurgents, protect a threatened population,... MORE

Civilian Skills for African Military Officers to Resolve the Infrastructure, Economic Development, and Stability Crisis in Sub-Saharan Africa
March 1, 2011 — Author: Ms Diane E Chido For decades, a lack of economic opportunity has caused instability and violence in Sub-Saharan Africa. Fortunately, U.S. Africa Command (USAFRICOM) is in a unique position to increase stability and reduce the causes of violence and extremism through new partnerships and military-to-military training. The current training... MORE

Plan Colombia: Reality of the Colombian Crisis and Implications for Hemispheric Security
December 1, 2002 — Author: Dr Luz E Nagle The author analyzes Colombia's problems and makes recommendations regarding what it will take to achieve stated U.S. and Colombian objectives in that crisis situation. She also examines the concomitant issue of "spillover" from the Colombian crisis into the rest of the Latin American region. The results and recommendations of... MORE

The Regional Security Crisis in the Andes: Patterns of State Response
June 1, 2001 — Author: Dr Judith A Gentleman The instability, corruption, displacement of people, and violence generated by Colombia's unholy trinity of narcotics traffickers, insurgents, and paramilitaries is spilling over into virtually all of northern South America and Panama. Thus, the stability and political sovereignty of the region are being compromised... MORE

Mexico in Crisis
May 31, 1995 — Author: Dr Donald E Schulz This is the first of a two-part report on the causes and nature of the crisis in Mexico, the prospects for the future, and the implications for the United States. In this initial study, the author analyzes the crisis as it has developed over the past decade-and-a-half, with the primary focus being on the 6-year term of... MORE