Recent Publications

“The Fallacy of Unambiguous Warning”
January 14, 2025 — The Indications and Warnings subfield of intelligence has traditionally divided warnings into a dichotomy of “ambiguous” and “unambiguous” that gives policymakers a false sense of security. In this episode, Regan Copple examines why unambiguous warning has become an inadequate planning tool that can lead to dire consequences in the quest for... MORE

Decisive Point Podcast Regan Copple | “The Fallacy of Unambiguous Warning”

Parameters | Autumn 2024
August 29, 2024 — Welcome to the Autumn 2024 issue of Parameters. The Autumn issue consists of a special piece from the US Army War College Commandant and Provost on their strategic vision for the college, two In Focus special commentaries, three forums (Cooperative Partnerships, Professional Development, and Historical Studies), two regular forums (A Major’s Perspective and the Civil-Military Relations Corner), and a... MORE

Protracted War Series: A Discussion with Markus Garlauskas
August 26, 2024 — In episode 17 of CLSC Dialogues, Markus Garlauskas discusses why we should think about the potential for a protracted war in the Indo-Pacific and what lessons we should be learning from analyzing the topic. He talks about why we should think about the likelihood of a potential protracted war should peace break in a place like Taiwan and why preparedness... MORE

Protracted War Series: A discussion with Dr. Sheena Greitens
August 8, 2024 — In episode 15 of CLSC Dialogues, Dr. Sheena Greitens looks at the potential for a protracted war between the US and China by exploring how a conflict could start and variables the CCP leadership may be watching. She then addresses public perceptions, economic dimensions, and how much planning Beijing may have done in preparation for a protracted war. Keywords: China, CCP, Xi Jinping, PLA, decision making, landpower, protracted war, economic warfare, coalitions, DPRK, Russia... MORE

Rethinking the Relevance of Self-Deterrence
April 24, 2024 — Self-deterrence is critically understudied in deterrence theory. Similarly, deterrence practitioners prefer to focus on adversaries’ threats rather than seeking to account for the full scope of fears influencing the decision calculus of policymakers. Through historical case studies, this article identifies where self-deterrence has occurred, highlights the benefits of incorporating the concept in future strategic planning and intelligence assessments, and recommends that policymakers, strategists, and analysts acknowledge self-deterrence as an important factor when preparing for future wars. ... MORE

2017-18 Key Strategic Issues List
November 15, 2017 — Editor: COL Todd E. Key For over a decade, the USAWC has published the annual Key Strategic Issues List (KSIL) to inform students, faculty, and external research associates of strategic topics requiring research and analysis. Part I of the Academic Year (AY) 2018 KSIL, referred to as the Chief of Staff of the Army Special Interest Topics, consists... MORE

Routine, Disciplined, and Results-Oriented: Joint Plans and Operations (JPOx) and Decisionmaking Processes in U.S. Forces-Iraq (USF-I)
January 31, 2013 — Colonel Matthew Q. DawsonLarge organizations, whether military or civilian, require routine processes and active leadership to ensure that the amount of time and energy spent on internal oversight and management is minimized; strategies, plans, and operations are synchronized; decisionmaking is facilitated; and output or productivity is maximized... MORE