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Publications | May 13, 2024

Argentina: Security Challenges and the Government Response

Summary: In addition to Argentina’s profound economic crisis, the nation faces serious security challenges. These include use of the country as a drug transit zone, including cocaine from Bolivia and Peru bound for Europe and marijuana from

South & Latin America | May 1, 2024

Paraguay: A Promising Government Navigating a Perilous Path

The greatest gift that Cartes can give the country and President Peña is to empower Peña to take the real and symbolic steps to frontally tackle corruption. Paraguay, a land-locked country at the heart of South America, is strategically important for

European Security | April 25, 2024

Now It’s Up to Europe to Take the Lead in Ukraine

Continental security can no longer be outsourced to the U.S., which may soon have other wars to fight.By John R. Deni and Lisa A. AronssonUkrainians are breathing a sigh of relief. Within days, desperately needed ammunition and military equipment

Publications | April 18, 2024

Emerging Technologies and Terrorism: An American Perspective

In a world where technology is rapidly advancing and available to the masses, companies and policymakers face a daunting reality—non-state actors are using innovation for sinister purposes. While artificial intelligence (AI) and autonomous systems

Publications | April 17, 2024

Decisive Decade: PRC Global Strategy and the PLA as a Pacing Challenge –...

The US Army War College’s 2023 Conference on the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) was held February 22 to 24, 2023, at Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania. The conference, entitled “Decisive Decade: PRC Global Strategy and the PLA as Pacing Challenge,”
Category: Regional Issues, China Landpower Studies Center, European Security, INDOPACOM (Indo-Pacific Region), South & Latin America

Alarm Grows Over Weakened Militaries and Empty Arsenals in Europe
December 12, 2023
Budget cuts and an eroded weapons industry have hollowed out armed services; Russia’s invasion of Ukraine reveals risks

“People may say the Russians have taken it on the chin, and we don’t need to worry. That’s a valid point, but it ignores residual Russian strength,” said John Deni, a professor at the U.S. Army War College and an expert on European militaries. “If the Russians present us with a mass problem in Europe, the challenge is, can technology and advanced capabilities do it? And there we see some challenges.”

Article quote and background image from:

The Monroe Doctrine, Then and Now
December 8, 2023
The Monroe Doctrine, Then and Now - Evan Ellis - The Dispatch
Background image from article: https://thedispatch.com/article/the-monroe-doctrine-then-and-now/

Would Venezuela Really Invade Essequibo?
December 4, 2023
By R. Evan Ellis
In the context of unfolding global conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine and the dangers of an increasingly aggressive yet economically fragile People’s Republic of China (PRC), Venezuela’s provocative referendum on its claim to two thirds of the territory of neighboring Guyana has received understandably little attention in Washington, D.C.
Original background image from article: https://theglobalamericans.org/2023/11/would-venezuela-really-invade-essequibo/

How to stop Ukraine’s NATO bid from derailing Washington summit
December 4, 2023
How to stop Ukraine’s NATO bid from derailing Washington summit
by John R. Deni
Marking the 75th anniversary of NATO’s founding, the alliance’s next summit in Washington is just months away, and allies are eagerly preparing the agenda.

This time around, several member countries are keen to avoid the kind of divisive discussions over Ukraine’s path to membership that publicly played out at last year’s summit in Vilnius — and none more so than hosting nation the United States.

Background image from https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ukraine_%E2%80%93_NATO_Commission_chaired_by_Petro_Poroshenko_(2017-07-10)_48.jpg

New Leaders in “National” Security after China’s 20th Party Congress
November 30, 2023
National Security after China’s 20th Party Congress: Trends in Discourse and Policy (prcleader.org) | Sheena Chestnut Greitens

Bolivia’s Descent into Deep Chaos and the Implications for the Region
November 22, 2023
The resource rich, land-locked South American nation of Bolivia has traditionally received limited attention from Washington. The country, historically mired in poverty, corruption, and cycles of political conflict is one of the hemisphere’s major sources for coca and illegally mined gold, as well as a transit country for both. Bolivia’s leftist populist Movement for Socialism (MAS) governments of Evo Morales and Luis Arce have made the country an important point of entry into the hemisphere for extra-hemispheric U.S. rivals including the People’s Republic of China, Russia, and Iran.
In recent weeks, a power struggle has emerged for control of the MAS between current President Luis Arce and former President Evo Morales. This has implications for the stability of the country as it plays out in the context of crosscutting political rivalries, economic difficulties, and a significant criminal economy with competing interests. This work examines the deteriorating situation in Bolivia and the potential implications for the region.
Image adapted from:

China Maritime Report No. 32: The PCH191 Modular Long-Range Rocket Launcher: Reshaping the PLA Army's Role in a Cross-Strait Campaign
November 15, 2023
"China Maritime Report No. 32: The PCH191 Modular Long-Range Rocket Lau" by Joshua Arostegui (usnwc.edu)

Implications of the Hamas Terror Attacks and the Israeli Response on Latin America and the Global Strategic Environment 
October 13, 2023
Evan Ellis - Implications of the Hamas Terror Attacks and the Israeli Response on Latin America and the Global Strategic Environment 
(for IndraStra at https://www.indrastra.com/2023/10/implications-of-hamas-terror-attacks.html)

Expert Analysis on Latest Attacks in Ukraine
October 6, 2023
Expert Analysis on Latest Attacks in Ukraine
US Army War College | Strategic Studies Institute

Military expert John Deni talks to CNN's Laila Harrak about Russian attacks on civilians, and the question of U.S. aid.
Expert analysis on latest attacks in Ukraine | CNN (https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2023/10/07/exp-ukraine-laila-guest-fst-100702aseg1.cnn)

CNN Host Laila Guest interviews John R. Deni on the current situation in Ukraine. 

Photo is a screenshot of the CNN interview.

The Impact of the Turn to the Left on the Advance of the People’s Republic of China in Latin
October 5, 2023
R. Evan Ellis 
This work uses the comparative method, complemented by quantitative data, to examine engagement by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in Latin America as a function of government type, across a range of activities, including trade, investment, infrastructure projects, security relations, and technical architectures over the past two decades. The findings indicate that the PRC establishes distinct and often broader forms of engagement with populist, anti-US governments, although this does not necessarily translate into a higher volume of PRC investment or overall trade with those governments. This is the first major work in the growing China–Latin America literature to explicitly analyze the dynamics of PRC engagement across regime type. It contributes to strategic analysis of the PRC challenge in the region by the operational force, including the identification of risks, and the formulation of responses, including credible messaging, in support of a coordinated whole-of-government response to the PRC challenge.

Read now: The Impact of the Turn to the Left on the Advance of the People’s Republic of China in Latin

Image adapted from FreePik (https://www.freepik.com/free-vector/coronavirus-map_7456298.htm)