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The resource rich, land-locked South American nation of Bolivia has traditionally received limited attention from Washington. The country, historically mired in poverty, corruption, and cycles of political conflict is one of the hemisphere’s major sources for coca and illegally mined gold, as well as a transit country for both. Bolivia’s leftist populist Movement for Socialism (MAS) governments of Evo Morales and Luis Arce have made the country an important point of entry into the hemisphere for extra-hemispheric U.S. rivals including the People’s Republic of China, Russia, and Iran. In recent weeks, a power struggle has emerged for control of the MAS between current President Luis Arce and former President Evo Morales. This has implications for the stability of the country as it plays out in the context of crosscutting political rivalries, economic difficulties, and a significant criminal economy with competing interests. This work examines the deteriorating situation in Bolivia and the potential implications for the region. Image adapted from: https://theglobalamericans.org/2023/11/bolivias-descent-into-deep-chaos-and-the-implications-for-the-region/
South & Latin America | Nov. 22, 2023

Bolivia’s Descent into Deep Chaos and the Implications for the Region

R. Evan Ellis The resource rich, land-locked South American nation of Bolivia has traditionally received limited attention from Washington. The country, historically mired in poverty, corruption, and cycles of political conflict is one of the

South & Latin America | Oct. 13, 2023

Implications of the Hamas Terror Attacks and the Israeli Response on Lat...

R. Evan Ellis IntroductionMy heart goes out to the almost 1,000 Israelis brutally slaughtered by Hamas on October 7, 2023, terrorist attacks this week. Few not actually living this moment in Israel, and certainly not me, can truly understand the


R. Evan Ellis  This work uses the comparative method, complemented by quantitative data, to examine engagement by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in Latin America as a function of government type, across a range of activities, including trade, investment, infrastructure projects, security relations, and technical architectures over the past two decades. The findings indicate that the PRC establishes distinct and often broader forms of engagement with populist, anti-US governments, although this does not necessarily translate into a higher volume of PRC investment or overall trade with those governments. This is the first major work in the growing China–Latin America literature to explicitly analyze the dynamics of PRC engagement across regime type. It contributes to strategic analysis of the PRC challenge in the region by the operational force, including the identification of risks, and the formulation of responses, including credible messaging, in support of a coordinated whole-of-government response to the PRC challenge. Read now: The Impact of the Turn to the Left on the Advance of the People’s Republic of China in Latin Image adapted from FreePik (https://www.freepik.com/free-vector/coronavirus-map_7456298.htm)
South & Latin America | Oct. 5, 2023

The Impact of the Turn to the Left on the Advance of the People’s Republ...

R. Evan Ellis This work uses the comparative method, complemented by quantitative data, to examine engagement by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in Latin America as a function of government type, across a range of activities, including trade,

2023 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment serves as a guide for academics and practitioners in the defense community on the current challenges and opportunities in the strategic environment. This year’s publication outlines key strategic issues across the four broad themes of Regional Challenges and Opportunities, Domestic Challenges, Institutional Challenges, and Domains Impacting US Strategic Advantage. These themes represent a wide range of topics affecting national security and provide a global assessment of the strategic environment to help focus the defense community on research and publication. Strategic competition with the People’s Republic of China and the implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine remain dominant challenges to US national security interests across the globe. However, the evolving security environment also presents new and unconventional threats, such as cyberattacks, terrorism, transnational crime, and the implications of rapid technological advancements in fields such as artificial intelligence. At the same time, the US faces domestic and institutional challenges in the form of recruiting and retention shortfalls in the all-volunteer force, the prospect of contested logistics in large-scale combat operations, and the health of the US Defense Industrial Base. Furthermore, rapidly evolving security landscapes in the Arctic region and the space domain pose unique potential challenges to the Army’s strategic advantage. https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/962/
Publications | Aug. 24, 2023

2023 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment

The United States operates within a global context that is increasingly complex, interconnected, and unpredictable. The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment serves as a guide to define broadly the contemporary security landscape and
Results:
Category: South & Latin America

Bolivia’s Descent into Deep Chaos and the Implications for the Region
November 22, 2023
The resource rich, land-locked South American nation of Bolivia has traditionally received limited attention from Washington. The country, historically mired in poverty, corruption, and cycles of political conflict is one of the hemisphere’s major sources for coca and illegally mined gold, as well as a transit country for both. Bolivia’s leftist populist Movement for Socialism (MAS) governments of Evo Morales and Luis Arce have made the country an important point of entry into the hemisphere for extra-hemispheric U.S. rivals including the People’s Republic of China, Russia, and Iran.
In recent weeks, a power struggle has emerged for control of the MAS between current President Luis Arce and former President Evo Morales. This has implications for the stability of the country as it plays out in the context of crosscutting political rivalries, economic difficulties, and a significant criminal economy with competing interests. This work examines the deteriorating situation in Bolivia and the potential implications for the region.
Image adapted from:
https://theglobalamericans.org/2023/11/bolivias-descent-into-deep-chaos-and-the-implications-for-the-region/

Implications of the Hamas Terror Attacks and the Israeli Response on Latin America and the Global Strategic Environment 
October 13, 2023
Evan Ellis - Implications of the Hamas Terror Attacks and the Israeli Response on Latin America and the Global Strategic Environment 
(for IndraStra at https://www.indrastra.com/2023/10/implications-of-hamas-terror-attacks.html)

The Impact of the Turn to the Left on the Advance of the People’s Republic of China in Latin
October 5, 2023
R. Evan Ellis 
This work uses the comparative method, complemented by quantitative data, to examine engagement by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in Latin America as a function of government type, across a range of activities, including trade, investment, infrastructure projects, security relations, and technical architectures over the past two decades. The findings indicate that the PRC establishes distinct and often broader forms of engagement with populist, anti-US governments, although this does not necessarily translate into a higher volume of PRC investment or overall trade with those governments. This is the first major work in the growing China–Latin America literature to explicitly analyze the dynamics of PRC engagement across regime type. It contributes to strategic analysis of the PRC challenge in the region by the operational force, including the identification of risks, and the formulation of responses, including credible messaging, in support of a coordinated whole-of-government response to the PRC challenge.

Read now: The Impact of the Turn to the Left on the Advance of the People’s Republic of China in Latin

Image adapted from FreePik (https://www.freepik.com/free-vector/coronavirus-map_7456298.htm)

2023 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment
August 24, 2023
2023 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment
The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment serves as a guide for academics and practitioners in the defense community on the current challenges and opportunities in the strategic environment. This year’s publication outlines key strategic issues across the four broad themes of Regional Challenges and Opportunities, Domestic Challenges, Institutional Challenges, and Domains Impacting US Strategic Advantage. These themes represent a wide range of topics affecting national security and provide a global assessment of the strategic environment to help focus the defense community on research and publication. Strategic competition with the People’s Republic of China and the implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine remain dominant challenges to US national security interests across the globe. However, the evolving security environment also presents new and unconventional threats, such as cyberattacks, terrorism, transnational crime, and the implications of rapid technological advancements in fields such as artificial intelligence. At the same time, the US faces domestic and institutional challenges in the form of recruiting and retention shortfalls in the all-volunteer force, the prospect of contested logistics in large-scale combat operations, and the health of the US Defense Industrial Base. Furthermore, rapidly evolving security landscapes in the Arctic region and the space domain pose unique potential challenges to the Army’s strategic advantage.
https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/962/

AY24 Campaign Planning Handbook
August 22, 2023
CAMPAIGN PLANNING HANDBOOK Academic Year 2024

Fernando Villavicencio and the Self-Destructive Collaboration between China and Populist Regimes
August 15, 2023
Fernando Villavicencio and the Self-Destructive Collaboration between China and Populist Regimes
R. Evan Ellis

Mexico’s Engagement with China and Choices for its Future
August 11, 2023
Mexico’s Engagement with China and Choices for its Future

PRC Engagement in The Bahamas
August 2, 2023
PRC Engagement in The Bahamas 
R. Evan Ellis
China, South & Latin America, SSI Worldwide

PacNet #49 – China’s military engagements with Cuba: Implications of a strategic advance in Latin America
July 30, 2023
PacNet #49 – China’s military engagements with Cuba: Implications of a strategic advance in Latin America

Security Challenges in the Caribbean: Threats, Migration, and International Cooperation
July 6, 2023
Security Challenges in the Caribbean: Threats, Migration, and International Cooperation, R. Evan Ellis, SSI Worldwide