Regional Issues - Category South & Latin America

Regional Issues

China Landpower Studies Center | Jan. 14, 2026

Can the 15th Five-Year Plan Fix the People’s Liberation Army’s Procureme...

China’s newly released 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) proposal, unveiled after the Fourth Party Plenum in October 2025, not only marks Beijing’s quest to achieve the People’s Liberation Army’s goal of building a so-called world-class military by

Publications | Jan. 12, 2026

The 2024 Carlisle Conference on the PLA: Protracted War Against the PRC

The US Army War College’s 2024 Carlisle Conference on the People’s Liberation Army was held on October 16 and 17 at Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania. The conference brought together experts to discuss the People’s Republic of China’s understanding of

China Landpower Studies Center | Jan. 6, 2026

If China Attacks Taiwan: The Consequences for China of "Minor Conflict" ...

Introduction by Bonnie S. Glaser: Research on the possibility and likely outcome of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait has expanded rapidly in recent years. Studies have focused on a broad range of questions related to deterrence, potential conflict

External Articles | Jan. 5, 2026

How Maduro’s capture went down – a military strategist explains what goe...

The predawn seizure of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on Jan. 3, 2026 was a complicated affair. It was also, operationally, a resounding success for the U.S. military.Operation Absolute Resolve achieved its objective of seizing Maduro through a

China Landpower Studies Center | Dec. 17, 2025

Security Implications of the China-Russia-North Korea Triangle

This article analyzes the evolving strategic dynamics within the China-Russia-North Korea triangle and their implications for global security. It argues that while the strengthened Russia–North Korea relationship poses risks for China’s global

Category: South & Latin America

International Competition in the High North: Kingston Conference on International Security 2022
January 25, 2024 — Editors: Michael E. Lynch, Howard G. CoombsThe 16th annual Kingston Consortium on International... MORE

Perspectives on Ecuador: The Sky Isn’t Falling
January 22, 2024 — The takeover of Ecuadorian TV station TC in the middle of a widely watched news broadcast, Ecuadoran... MORE

Perspectives on Ecuador: The Sky Isn’t Falling | R. Evan Ellis
Background image from United Press International via Global Americans Article (https://theglobalamericans.org/perspectives-on-ecuador-the-sky-isnt-falling)

Deterrence Gap: Avoiding War in the Taiwan Strait
January 5, 2024 — The likelihood China will attack Taiwan in the next decade is high and will continue to be so,... MORE

The likelihood China will attack Taiwan in the next decade is high and will continue to be so, unless Taipei and Washington take urgent steps to restore deterrence across the Taiwan Strait. This monograph introduces the concept of interlocking deterrents, explains why deterrents lose their potency with the passage of time, and provides concrete recommendations for how Taiwan, the United States, and other regional powers can develop multiple, interlocking deterrents that will ensure Taiwanese security in the short and longer terms. By joining deterrence theory with an empirical analysis of Taiwanese, Chinese, and US policies, the monograph provides US military and policy practitioners new insights into ways to deter the People’s Republic of China from invading Taiwan without relying exclusively on the threat of great-power war.
Jared M. McKinney and Peter Harris
Keywords
Taiwan, China, deterrence, cross-strait relations, Indo-Pacific, East Asia, US foreign policy, international security

Disciplines
Defense and Security Studies

https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/964

China’s Growing Strategic Position in Nicaragua
December 21, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis | The October 2023 announcement of multiple major infrastructure projects to be... MORE

China’s Growing Strategic Position in Nicaragua – R. Evan Ellis in The Diplomat
https://thediplomat.com/2023/12/chinas-growing-strategic-position-in-nicaragua/

The Monroe Doctrine, Then and Now
December 8, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis | In November 2013, then-Secretary of State John Kerry declared, to thunderous... MORE

The Monroe Doctrine, Then and Now - Evan Ellis - The Dispatch
Background image from article: https://thedispatch.com/article/the-monroe-doctrine-then-and-now/

Would Venezuela Really Invade Essequibo?
December 4, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis | In the context of unfolding global conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine and the... MORE

By R. Evan Ellis
In the context of unfolding global conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine and the dangers of an increasingly aggressive yet economically fragile People’s Republic of China (PRC), Venezuela’s provocative referendum on its claim to two thirds of the territory of neighboring Guyana has received understandably little attention in Washington, D.C.
Original background image from article: https://theglobalamericans.org/2023/11/would-venezuela-really-invade-essequibo/

Bolivia’s Descent into Deep Chaos and the Implications for the Region
November 22, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis | The resource rich, land-locked South American nation of Bolivia has traditionally... MORE

The resource rich, land-locked South American nation of Bolivia has traditionally received limited attention from Washington. The country, historically mired in poverty, corruption, and cycles of political conflict is one of the hemisphere’s major sources for coca and illegally mined gold, as well as a transit country for both. Bolivia’s leftist populist Movement for Socialism (MAS) governments of Evo Morales and Luis Arce have made the country an important point of entry into the hemisphere for extra-hemispheric U.S. rivals including the People’s Republic of China, Russia, and Iran.
In recent weeks, a power struggle has emerged for control of the MAS between current President Luis Arce and former President Evo Morales. This has implications for the stability of the country as it plays out in the context of crosscutting political rivalries, economic difficulties, and a significant criminal economy with competing interests. This work examines the deteriorating situation in Bolivia and the potential implications for the region.
Image adapted from:
https://theglobalamericans.org/2023/11/bolivias-descent-into-deep-chaos-and-the-implications-for-the-region/

Implications of the Hamas Terror Attacks and the Israeli Response on Latin America and the Global Strategic Environment
October 13, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis | My heart goes out to the almost 1,000 Israelis brutally slaughtered by Hamas on... MORE

Evan Ellis - Implications of the Hamas Terror Attacks and the Israeli Response on Latin America and the Global Strategic Environment
(for IndraStra at https://www.indrastra.com/2023/10/implications-of-hamas-terror-attacks.html)

The Impact of the Turn to the Left on the Advance of the People’s Republic of China in Latin
October 5, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis | This work uses the comparative method, complemented by quantitative data, to examine... MORE

R. Evan Ellis
This work uses the comparative method, complemented by quantitative data, to examine engagement by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in Latin America as a function of government type, across a range of activities, including trade, investment, infrastructure projects, security relations, and technical architectures over the past two decades. The findings indicate that the PRC establishes distinct and often broader forms of engagement with populist, anti-US governments, although this does not necessarily translate into a higher volume of PRC investment or overall trade with those governments. This is the first major work in the growing China–Latin America literature to explicitly analyze the dynamics of PRC engagement across regime type. It contributes to strategic analysis of the PRC challenge in the region by the operational force, including the identification of risks, and the formulation of responses, including credible messaging, in support of a coordinated whole-of-government response to the PRC challenge.

Read now: The Impact of the Turn to the Left on the Advance of the People’s Republic of China in Latin

Image adapted from FreePik (https://www.freepik.com/free-vector/coronavirus-map_7456298.htm)

2023 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment
August 24, 2023 — The United States operates within a global context that is increasingly complex, interconnected, and unpredictable. The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment serves as a guide to define broadly the contemporary security landscape and the diverse range of interests that shape our national security agenda... MORE

2023 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment
The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment serves as a guide for academics and practitioners in the defense community on the current challenges and opportunities in the strategic environment. This year’s publication outlines key strategic issues across the four broad themes of Regional Challenges and Opportunities, Domestic Challenges, Institutional Challenges, and Domains Impacting US Strategic Advantage. These themes represent a wide range of topics affecting national security and provide a global assessment of the strategic environment to help focus the defense community on research and publication. Strategic competition with the People’s Republic of China and the implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine remain dominant challenges to US national security interests across the globe. However, the evolving security environment also presents new and unconventional threats, such as cyberattacks, terrorism, transnational crime, and the implications of rapid technological advancements in fields such as artificial intelligence. At the same time, the US faces domestic and institutional challenges in the form of recruiting and retention shortfalls in the all-volunteer force, the prospect of contested logistics in large-scale combat operations, and the health of the US Defense Industrial Base. Furthermore, rapidly evolving security landscapes in the Arctic region and the space domain pose unique potential challenges to the Army’s strategic advantage.
https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/962/