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Category: South & Latin America

Strategic Implications of the Deterioration of the Rules-Based International Order
February 2, 2024
Strategic Implications of the Deterioration of the Rules-Based International Order | R. Evan Ellis
International Competition in the High North: Kingston Conference on International Security 2022
January 25, 2024
International Competition in the High North: Kingston Conference on International Security 2022
Perspectives on Ecuador: The Sky Isn’t Falling
January 22, 2024
Perspectives on Ecuador: The Sky Isn’t Falling | R. Evan Ellis Background image from United Press International via Global Americans Article (https://theglobalamericans.org/perspectives-on-ecuador-the-sky-isnt-falling)
Deterrence Gap: Avoiding War in the Taiwan Strait
January 5, 2024
The likelihood China will attack Taiwan in the next decade is high and will continue to be so, unless Taipei and Washington take urgent steps to restore deterrence across the Taiwan Strait. This monograph introduces the concept of interlocking deterrents, explains why deterrents lose their potency with the passage of time, and provides concrete recommendations for how Taiwan, the United States, and other regional powers can develop multiple, interlocking deterrents that will ensure Taiwanese security in the short and longer terms. By joining deterrence theory with an empirical analysis of Taiwanese, Chinese, and US policies, the monograph provides US military and policy practitioners new insights into ways to deter the People’s Republic of China from invading Taiwan without relying exclusively on the threat of great-power war. Jared M. McKinney and Peter Harris Keywords Taiwan, China, deterrence, cross-strait relations, Indo-Pacific, East Asia, US foreign policy, international security Disciplines Defense and Security Studies https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/964
China’s Growing Strategic Position in Nicaragua
December 21, 2023
China’s Growing Strategic Position in Nicaragua – R. Evan Ellis in The Diplomat https://thediplomat.com/2023/12/chinas-growing-strategic-position-in-nicaragua/
The Monroe Doctrine, Then and Now
December 8, 2023
The Monroe Doctrine, Then and Now - Evan Ellis - The Dispatch Background image from article: https://thedispatch.com/article/the-monroe-doctrine-then-and-now/
Would Venezuela Really Invade Essequibo?
December 4, 2023
By R. Evan Ellis In the context of unfolding global conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine and the dangers of an increasingly aggressive yet economically fragile People’s Republic of China (PRC), Venezuela’s provocative referendum on its claim to two thirds of the territory of neighboring Guyana has received understandably little attention in Washington, D.C. Original background image from article: https://theglobalamericans.org/2023/11/would-venezuela-really-invade-essequibo/
Bolivia’s Descent into Deep Chaos and the Implications for the Region
November 22, 2023
The resource rich, land-locked South American nation of Bolivia has traditionally received limited attention from Washington. The country, historically mired in poverty, corruption, and cycles of political conflict is one of the hemisphere’s major sources for coca and illegally mined gold, as well as a transit country for both. Bolivia’s leftist populist Movement for Socialism (MAS) governments of Evo Morales and Luis Arce have made the country an important point of entry into the hemisphere for extra-hemispheric U.S. rivals including the People’s Republic of China, Russia, and Iran. In recent weeks, a power struggle has emerged for control of the MAS between current President Luis Arce and former President Evo Morales. This has implications for the stability of the country as it plays out in the context of crosscutting political rivalries, economic difficulties, and a significant criminal economy with competing interests. This work examines the deteriorating situation in Bolivia and the potential implications for the region. Image adapted from: https://theglobalamericans.org/2023/11/bolivias-descent-into-deep-chaos-and-the-implications-for-the-region/
Implications of the Hamas Terror Attacks and the Israeli Response on Latin America and the Global Strategic Environment 
October 13, 2023
Evan Ellis - Implications of the Hamas Terror Attacks and the Israeli Response on Latin America and the Global Strategic Environment (for IndraStra at https://www.indrastra.com/2023/10/implications-of-hamas-terror-attacks.html)
The Impact of the Turn to the Left on the Advance of the People’s Republic of China in Latin
October 5, 2023
R. Evan Ellis  This work uses the comparative method, complemented by quantitative data, to examine engagement by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in Latin America as a function of government type, across a range of activities, including trade, investment, infrastructure projects, security relations, and technical architectures over the past two decades. The findings indicate that the PRC establishes distinct and often broader forms of engagement with populist, anti-US governments, although this does not necessarily translate into a higher volume of PRC investment or overall trade with those governments. This is the first major work in the growing China–Latin America literature to explicitly analyze the dynamics of PRC engagement across regime type. It contributes to strategic analysis of the PRC challenge in the region by the operational force, including the identification of risks, and the formulation of responses, including credible messaging, in support of a coordinated whole-of-government response to the PRC challenge. Read now: The Impact of the Turn to the Left on the Advance of the People’s Republic of China in Latin Image adapted from FreePik (https://www.freepik.com/free-vector/coronavirus-map_7456298.htm)