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South & Latin America | July 25, 2024

Venezuela’s Elections: Hoping for the Best, Preparing for the Worst

As Venezuela moves toward promised national elections on July 28, my heart is with the hopes of Venezuelans for a miracle that will translate their courageous act of voting, into a restoration of democracy. Everything I have seen unfold in the
China Landpower Studies Center | July 22, 2024

China, the Illiberal Counter-Order, and the Role of Values in the Strate...

The dynamics of the international order in the third decade of the 21st Century are changing profoundly.  The magnitude and complexity of the change are illustrated by Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine, in both its initial failure, and in the ability
South & Latin America | July 15, 2024

Engagement with China has had a Multifaceted Impact on Latin American De...

While Beijing may not deliberately promote authoritarian regimes in Latin America, implicit risks to the dynamics of democracies arise out of engagement with China.In its public discourse, unlike the Soviet Union during the Cold War, the People’s
China Landpower Studies Center | July 10, 2024

What’s Behind South Korea’s New Defectors’ Day Holiday?

The inaugural July commemoration is an inflection point and an opportunity for the Yoon government to advance both domestic and foreign policy priorities.On July 14, South Korea will commemorate its inaugural North Korean Defectors’ Day. The new
European Security | July 8, 2024

NATO’s in Denial about Deterrence by Denial

Taking the necessary steps to fully operationalize deterrence by denial is critical — especially before a possible change in America’s relationship with NATO.Recent revelations that the Chinese government has been substantially aiding Russia’s war
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Category: Regional Issues, China Landpower Studies Center, European Security, INDOPACOM (Indo-Pacific Region), South & Latin America

Strategic Implications of the Deterioration of the Rules-Based International Order
February 2, 2024
Strategic Implications of the Deterioration of the Rules-Based International Order | R. Evan Ellis
International Competition in the High North: Kingston Conference on International Security 2022
January 25, 2024
International Competition in the High North: Kingston Conference on International Security 2022
Perspectives on Ecuador: The Sky Isn’t Falling
January 22, 2024
Perspectives on Ecuador: The Sky Isn’t Falling | R. Evan Ellis Background image from United Press International via Global Americans Article (https://theglobalamericans.org/perspectives-on-ecuador-the-sky-isnt-falling)
Deterring War without Threatening War: Rehabilitating the West’s Risk-averse Approach to Deterrence
January 19, 2024
Deterring War without Threatening War: Rehabilitating the West’s Risk-averse Approach to Deterrence - Military Strategy Magazine Antulio J. Echevarria II https://www.militarystrategymagazine.com/article/deterring-war-without-threatening-war-rehabilitating-the-wests-risk-averse-approach-to-deterrence/
Assessing the Outcome of Taiwan's Presidential Election | 2024 Elections to Watch
January 18, 2024
On January 13 Taiwanese voters headed to the polls, where they elected William Lai to serve as president. Carnegie Asia Program non-resident scholar Sheena Greitens breaks down the results of the election and the various issues at play.
Deterrence Gap: Avoiding War in the Taiwan Strait
January 5, 2024
The likelihood China will attack Taiwan in the next decade is high and will continue to be so, unless Taipei and Washington take urgent steps to restore deterrence across the Taiwan Strait. This monograph introduces the concept of interlocking deterrents, explains why deterrents lose their potency with the passage of time, and provides concrete recommendations for how Taiwan, the United States, and other regional powers can develop multiple, interlocking deterrents that will ensure Taiwanese security in the short and longer terms. By joining deterrence theory with an empirical analysis of Taiwanese, Chinese, and US policies, the monograph provides US military and policy practitioners new insights into ways to deter the People’s Republic of China from invading Taiwan without relying exclusively on the threat of great-power war. Jared M. McKinney and Peter Harris Keywords Taiwan, China, deterrence, cross-strait relations, Indo-Pacific, East Asia, US foreign policy, international security Disciplines Defense and Security Studies https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/964
China’s Growing Strategic Position in Nicaragua
December 21, 2023
China’s Growing Strategic Position in Nicaragua – R. Evan Ellis in The Diplomat https://thediplomat.com/2023/12/chinas-growing-strategic-position-in-nicaragua/
Is the Baltic Sea a NATO Lake? 
December 20, 2023
Is the Baltic Sea a NATO Lake? John R. Deni
Alarm Grows Over Weakened Militaries and Empty Arsenals in Europe
December 12, 2023
Budget cuts and an eroded weapons industry have hollowed out armed services; Russia’s invasion of Ukraine reveals risks “People may say the Russians have taken it on the chin, and we don’t need to worry. That’s a valid point, but it ignores residual Russian strength,” said John Deni, a professor at the U.S. Army War College and an expert on European militaries. “If the Russians present us with a mass problem in Europe, the challenge is, can technology and advanced capabilities do it? And there we see some challenges.” Article quote and background image from: https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/alarm-nato-weak-military-empty-arsenals-europe-a72b23f4
The Monroe Doctrine, Then and Now
December 8, 2023
The Monroe Doctrine, Then and Now - Evan Ellis - The Dispatch Background image from article: https://thedispatch.com/article/the-monroe-doctrine-then-and-now/