Regional Issues

South & Latin America | July 25, 2024

Venezuela’s Elections: Hoping for the Best, Preparing for the Worst

As Venezuela moves toward promised national elections on July 28, my heart is with the hopes of Venezuelans for a miracle that will translate their courageous act of voting, into a restoration of democracy. Everything I have seen unfold in the

China Landpower Studies Center | July 22, 2024

China, the Illiberal Counter-Order, and the Role of Values in the Strate...

The dynamics of the international order in the third decade of the 21st Century are changing profoundly. The magnitude and complexity of the change are illustrated by Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine, in both its initial failure, and in the ability

South & Latin America | July 15, 2024

Engagement with China has had a Multifaceted Impact on Latin American De...

While Beijing may not deliberately promote authoritarian regimes in Latin America, implicit risks to the dynamics of democracies arise out of engagement with China.In its public discourse, unlike the Soviet Union during the Cold War, the People’s

China Landpower Studies Center | July 10, 2024

What’s Behind South Korea’s New Defectors’ Day Holiday?

The inaugural July commemoration is an inflection point and an opportunity for the Yoon government to advance both domestic and foreign policy priorities.On July 14, South Korea will commemorate its inaugural North Korean Defectors’ Day. The new

European Security | July 8, 2024

NATO’s in Denial about Deterrence by Denial

Taking the necessary steps to fully operationalize deterrence by denial is critical — especially before a possible change in America’s relationship with NATO.Recent revelations that the Chinese government has been substantially aiding Russia’s war

Category: Regional Issues, China Landpower Studies Center, European Security, INDOPACOM (Indo-Pacific Region), South & Latin America

Would Venezuela Really Invade Essequibo?
December 4, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis | In the context of unfolding global conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine and the... MORE

By R. Evan Ellis
In the context of unfolding global conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine and the dangers of an increasingly aggressive yet economically fragile People’s Republic of China (PRC), Venezuela’s provocative referendum on its claim to two thirds of the territory of neighboring Guyana has received understandably little attention in Washington, D.C.
Original background image from article: https://theglobalamericans.org/2023/11/would-venezuela-really-invade-essequibo/

How to stop Ukraine’s NATO bid from derailing Washington summit
December 4, 2023 — John R. Deni for POLITICO | It’s time to tear up the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act. John R. Deni is... MORE

How to stop Ukraine’s NATO bid from derailing Washington summit
by John R. Deni
Marking the 75th anniversary of NATO’s founding, the alliance’s next summit in Washington is just months away, and allies are eagerly preparing the agenda.

This time around, several member countries are keen to avoid the kind of divisive discussions over Ukraine’s path to membership that publicly played out at last year’s summit in Vilnius — and none more so than hosting nation the United States.

Background image from https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ukraine_%E2%80%93_NATO_Commission_chaired_by_Petro_Poroshenko_(2017-07-10)_48.jpg

New Leaders in “National” Security after China’s 20th Party Congress
November 30, 2023 — Sheena Chestnut Greitens | The 20th Party Congress in October 2022 affirmed the centrality of Xi... MORE

National Security after China’s 20th Party Congress: Trends in Discourse and Policy (prcleader.org) | Sheena Chestnut Greitens

Bolivia’s Descent into Deep Chaos and the Implications for the Region
November 22, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis | The resource rich, land-locked South American nation of Bolivia has traditionally... MORE

The resource rich, land-locked South American nation of Bolivia has traditionally received limited attention from Washington. The country, historically mired in poverty, corruption, and cycles of political conflict is one of the hemisphere’s major sources for coca and illegally mined gold, as well as a transit country for both. Bolivia’s leftist populist Movement for Socialism (MAS) governments of Evo Morales and Luis Arce have made the country an important point of entry into the hemisphere for extra-hemispheric U.S. rivals including the People’s Republic of China, Russia, and Iran.
In recent weeks, a power struggle has emerged for control of the MAS between current President Luis Arce and former President Evo Morales. This has implications for the stability of the country as it plays out in the context of crosscutting political rivalries, economic difficulties, and a significant criminal economy with competing interests. This work examines the deteriorating situation in Bolivia and the potential implications for the region.
Image adapted from:
https://theglobalamericans.org/2023/11/bolivias-descent-into-deep-chaos-and-the-implications-for-the-region/

China Maritime Report No. 32: The PCH191 Modular Long-Range Rocket Launcher: Reshaping the PLA Army's Role in a Cross-Strait Campaign
November 15, 2023 — With its fielding of the PCH191 multiple rocket launcher (MRL) and its variety of long-range... MORE

"China Maritime Report No. 32: The PCH191 Modular Long-Range Rocket Lau" by Joshua Arostegui (usnwc.edu)

Implications of the Hamas Terror Attacks and the Israeli Response on Latin America and the Global Strategic Environment
October 13, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis | My heart goes out to the almost 1,000 Israelis brutally slaughtered by Hamas on... MORE

Evan Ellis - Implications of the Hamas Terror Attacks and the Israeli Response on Latin America and the Global Strategic Environment
(for IndraStra at https://www.indrastra.com/2023/10/implications-of-hamas-terror-attacks.html)

Expert Analysis on Latest Attacks in Ukraine
October 6, 2023 — John R. Deni | Military expert John Deni talks to CNN's Laila Harrak about Russian attacks on... MORE

Expert Analysis on Latest Attacks in Ukraine
US Army War College | Strategic Studies Institute

Military expert John Deni talks to CNN's Laila Harrak about Russian attacks on civilians, and the question of U.S. aid.
Expert analysis on latest attacks in Ukraine | CNN (https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2023/10/07/exp-ukraine-laila-guest-fst-100702aseg1.cnn)

CNN Host Laila Guest interviews John R. Deni on the current situation in Ukraine.

Photo is a screenshot of the CNN interview.

The Impact of the Turn to the Left on the Advance of the People’s Republic of China in Latin
October 5, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis | This work uses the comparative method, complemented by quantitative data, to examine... MORE

R. Evan Ellis
This work uses the comparative method, complemented by quantitative data, to examine engagement by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in Latin America as a function of government type, across a range of activities, including trade, investment, infrastructure projects, security relations, and technical architectures over the past two decades. The findings indicate that the PRC establishes distinct and often broader forms of engagement with populist, anti-US governments, although this does not necessarily translate into a higher volume of PRC investment or overall trade with those governments. This is the first major work in the growing China–Latin America literature to explicitly analyze the dynamics of PRC engagement across regime type. It contributes to strategic analysis of the PRC challenge in the region by the operational force, including the identification of risks, and the formulation of responses, including credible messaging, in support of a coordinated whole-of-government response to the PRC challenge.

Read now: The Impact of the Turn to the Left on the Advance of the People’s Republic of China in Latin

Image adapted from FreePik (https://www.freepik.com/free-vector/coronavirus-map_7456298.htm)

National Security after China’s 20th Party Congress: Trends in Discourse and Policy
August 29, 2023 — The 20th Party Congress in October 2022 affirmed the centrality of Xi Jinping’s vision of national... MORE

2023 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment
August 24, 2023 — The United States operates within a global context that is increasingly complex, interconnected, and unpredictable. The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment serves as a guide to define broadly the contemporary security landscape and the diverse range of interests that shape our national security agenda... MORE

2023 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment
The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment serves as a guide for academics and practitioners in the defense community on the current challenges and opportunities in the strategic environment. This year’s publication outlines key strategic issues across the four broad themes of Regional Challenges and Opportunities, Domestic Challenges, Institutional Challenges, and Domains Impacting US Strategic Advantage. These themes represent a wide range of topics affecting national security and provide a global assessment of the strategic environment to help focus the defense community on research and publication. Strategic competition with the People’s Republic of China and the implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine remain dominant challenges to US national security interests across the globe. However, the evolving security environment also presents new and unconventional threats, such as cyberattacks, terrorism, transnational crime, and the implications of rapid technological advancements in fields such as artificial intelligence. At the same time, the US faces domestic and institutional challenges in the form of recruiting and retention shortfalls in the all-volunteer force, the prospect of contested logistics in large-scale combat operations, and the health of the US Defense Industrial Base. Furthermore, rapidly evolving security landscapes in the Arctic region and the space domain pose unique potential challenges to the Army’s strategic advantage.
https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/962/