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China Landpower Studies Center | Feb. 4, 2026

If China Attacks Taiwan: Beijing Risks Social Instability in a Conflict

A conversation between Dr. Sheena Chestnut Greitens, Dr. Jake Rinaldi, and Bonnie Glaser on the risk of domestic social instability for Beijing if China attacked Taiwan. A podcast from The German Marshall Fund of the United States.
China Landpower Studies Center | Jan. 14, 2026

Can the 15th Five-Year Plan Fix the People’s Liberation Army’s Procureme...

China’s newly released 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) proposal, unveiled after the Fourth Party Plenum in October 2025, not only marks Beijing’s quest to achieve the People’s Liberation Army’s goal of building a so-called world-class military by
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Category: China Landpower Studies Center

PRC Engagement with Latin America, and Central and Eastern Europe: Comparisons and Insights
February 8, 2024
PRC Engagement with Latin America, and Central and Eastern Europe: Comparisons and Insights | R. Evan Ellis
The Mixed Message About China's Economy
February 8, 2024
The Mixed Message About China's Economy | NPR Podcast Appearance by Sheena Greitens
Strategic Implications of the Deterioration of the Rules-Based International Order
February 2, 2024
Strategic Implications of the Deterioration of the Rules-Based International Order | R. Evan Ellis
International Competition in the High North: Kingston Conference on International Security 2022
January 25, 2024
International Competition in the High North: Kingston Conference on International Security 2022
Assessing the Outcome of Taiwan's Presidential Election | 2024 Elections to Watch
January 18, 2024
On January 13 Taiwanese voters headed to the polls, where they elected William Lai to serve as president. Carnegie Asia Program non-resident scholar Sheena Greitens breaks down the results of the election and the various issues at play.
Deterrence Gap: Avoiding War in the Taiwan Strait
January 5, 2024
The likelihood China will attack Taiwan in the next decade is high and will continue to be so, unless Taipei and Washington take urgent steps to restore deterrence across the Taiwan Strait. This monograph introduces the concept of interlocking deterrents, explains why deterrents lose their potency with the passage of time, and provides concrete recommendations for how Taiwan, the United States, and other regional powers can develop multiple, interlocking deterrents that will ensure Taiwanese security in the short and longer terms. By joining deterrence theory with an empirical analysis of Taiwanese, Chinese, and US policies, the monograph provides US military and policy practitioners new insights into ways to deter the People’s Republic of China from invading Taiwan without relying exclusively on the threat of great-power war. Jared M. McKinney and Peter Harris Keywords Taiwan, China, deterrence, cross-strait relations, Indo-Pacific, East Asia, US foreign policy, international security Disciplines Defense and Security Studies https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/964
New Leaders in “National” Security after China’s 20th Party Congress
November 30, 2023
National Security after China’s 20th Party Congress: Trends in Discourse and Policy (prcleader.org) | Sheena Chestnut Greitens
China Maritime Report No. 32: The PCH191 Modular Long-Range Rocket Launcher: Reshaping the PLA Army's Role in a Cross-Strait Campaign
November 15, 2023
"China Maritime Report No. 32: The PCH191 Modular Long-Range Rocket Lau" by Joshua Arostegui (usnwc.edu)
National Security after China’s 20th Party Congress: Trends in Discourse and Policy
August 29, 2023
National Security after China’s 20th Party Congress: Trends in Discourse and Policy (prcleader.org) | Sheena Chestnut Greitens
2023 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment
August 24, 2023
2023 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment serves as a guide for academics and practitioners in the defense community on the current challenges and opportunities in the strategic environment. This year’s publication outlines key strategic issues across the four broad themes of Regional Challenges and Opportunities, Domestic Challenges, Institutional Challenges, and Domains Impacting US Strategic Advantage. These themes represent a wide range of topics affecting national security and provide a global assessment of the strategic environment to help focus the defense community on research and publication. Strategic competition with the People’s Republic of China and the implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine remain dominant challenges to US national security interests across the globe. However, the evolving security environment also presents new and unconventional threats, such as cyberattacks, terrorism, transnational crime, and the implications of rapid technological advancements in fields such as artificial intelligence. At the same time, the US faces domestic and institutional challenges in the form of recruiting and retention shortfalls in the all-volunteer force, the prospect of contested logistics in large-scale combat operations, and the health of the US Defense Industrial Base. Furthermore, rapidly evolving security landscapes in the Arctic region and the space domain pose unique potential challenges to the Army’s strategic advantage. https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/962/