While policy clashes between the elected governments of Mexico and the United States in the coming years appear likely, the degree to which those tensions degrade the commercial relationship and security cooperation that is vital to both will depend on the forbearance and statesmanship of leaders on each side.
The U.S.-Mexico relationship is one of the most fundamental for the security and prosperity of both countries. Economic and security conditions, governance, and public policy in Mexico directly impact the United States in a myriad of ways, from production chains integrating the two nations, to the flows of drugs and migrants across the U.S.-Mexico border. Reciprocally, the U.S. is Mexico’s largest trade and investment partner, while the demand for drugs from the U.S. and flows of guns purchased legally in the U.S., but smuggled illegally into Mexico, profoundly impact its security situation.
The election of Claudia Sheinbaum as Mexico’s President in June 2024 and the near-supermajority her leftist Morena movement has in the Mexican legislature, combined with the election of Donald Trump in the November 2024 U.S. elections and Republican control of both houses of the U.S. Congress, puts the neighbors on a course of significant potential conflict, even while maintaining a constructive relationship becomes more important for both. Difficulties are likely to emerge around the interdependent areas of migration and the border, drugs and security cooperation, Mexico’s legal framework and the treatment of U.S. investors, and activities by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in Mexico in the context of the 2025-2026 review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement (USMCA).
Background photo of US President-Elect Donald J. Trump and Mexico’s President Sheinbaum, adapted from image on article (https://globalamericans.org/challenges-and-opportunities-for-u-s-mexico-security-cooperation/)