The Assad regime in Syria has become a casualty of Moscow’s increasingly desperate efforts in Ukraine, and its collapse is a strategic and operational blow that undermines the narrative of Russia as ascendant, Kyiv as doomed, and Vladimir Putin as strategic mastermind.
Russian forces had been fighting for Assad since at least late 2015, when Moscow decided to intervene in the Syrian civil war on behalf of a family regime it had supported with military aid since the 1950s. Putin also sought to retain access to the port of Tartus, home to Russia’s only military base outside the former Soviet Union.
During the civil war, Russia’s direct military engagement consisted mostly of airstrikes on opponents of the Syrian regime. Moscow also dispatched a limited number of armored forces, air defense units, and infantry to the wartorn country, but these mostly just protected its air force assets. More significant was the deployment of thousands of armed men employed by Russian private military companies such as the Wagner Group. They conducted assault operations with Syrian units and were instrumental to Assad’s success in the late 2010s.
Keywords: Syria, Moscow, Ukraine, Kyiv, Vladimir Putin, EU, NATO
Background image by Mark Kerrison/In Pictures, of protestors demonstrating in front of the Russian embassy in London, UK, via Getty Images, December 2024 from the Defense One article (https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2024/12/will-assads-defeat-be-russias-waterloo/401551)