Recent Publications

Parameters | Winter 2023–24
November 20, 2023 — adetail.news .article-body { max-width: 80% !important; }Parameters | Winter 2023–24 Download the Full IssueThe Winter issue is out! In this edition: “Was the Russian Invasion of Ukraine a Failure of Western Deterrence?” by Bettina Renz and “Ukraine’s Lessons for Future Combat: Unmanned Aerial Systems and Deep Strike,” by Harry Halem; CLSC... MORE

Welcome to the Winter 2023–24 issue of Parameters.

This issue consists of two In Focus commentaries which bring to light observations from the Russia-Ukraine War, two forums addressing deterrence and strategic influence, and the inaugural Director’s Corner for the China Landpower Studies Center (CLSC).

Keywords: deterrence; Ukraine; Russia; Putin; NATO; unmanned aerial systems; deep strike; reconnaissance-strike complex; electronic warfare; Russia-Ukraine War; nuclear; misperception; Russia; multidomain operations; freedom to roam; grand strategy; offshore balancing; offensive realism; regional hegemony; stopping power of water; Middle East; integrated deterrence; strategy; Cold War; flexible response; New Look; economic interests; globalization; strategic competition; multinational exercises; bilateral exercises; reflexive control; strategic behavior; strategic analysis; nonlinearity; complex adaptive system; civil-military relations; general officers; promotions; flag officers; political participation; People’s Liberation Army; Chinese Communist Party; Belt and Road Initiative; China; Landpower; security assistance; Iran; Operation Iraqi Freedom; Operation Enduring Freedom; Bill Clinton; George W. Bush; Barack Obama; Civil War; Army of Tennessee; John B. Hood; William Tecumseh Sherman; Battle of Atlanta; Close Combat Lethality Task Force; Secretary of Defense General James N. Mattis; Iraq; Vicksburg Campaign; Ulysses S. Grant; William T. Sherman; Chickasaw Bayou; World War I; World War II; W. E. B. Du Bois; Talented Tenth; 1920s; citizen-soldier; National Guard; modern Army; Harry S. Truman; atomic bomb; Japan; nuclear war; North Korea; George W. Bush; Kim Il-Sung; Kim Jong-Un; China; Xi Jinping; Chinese Dream; authoritarianism; diplomacy; Samuel P. Huntington; Carl von Clausewitz; Dwight D. Eisenhower; George S. Patton; Kenneth Payne; Jan Smuts; South Africa; World War I in Africa; German South West Africa; German East Africa

How to stop Ukraine’s NATO bid from derailing Washington summit
December 4, 2023 — John R. Deni for POLITICO It’s time to tear up the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act. John R. Deni is a research professor at the U.S. Army War College’s Strategic Studies Institute. He’s the author of “NATO and Article 5.” The views expressed are his own.Marking the 75th anniversary of NATO’s founding, the alliance’s next summit in Washington is just... MORE

How to stop Ukraine’s NATO bid from derailing Washington summit
by John R. Deni
Marking the 75th anniversary of NATO’s founding, the alliance’s next summit in Washington is just months away, and allies are eagerly preparing the agenda.

This time around, several member countries are keen to avoid the kind of divisive discussions over Ukraine’s path to membership that publicly played out at last year’s summit in Vilnius — and none more so than hosting nation the United States.

Background image from https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ukraine_%E2%80%93_NATO_Commission_chaired_by_Petro_Poroshenko_(2017-07-10)_48.jpg

Without Flyers, No Tannenberg: Aviation on the Eastern Front of 1914—Evolution of a Critical Role for Modern Warfare
September 21, 2023 — 76th Birthday of Air ForceBook Review: Without Flyers, No Tannenberg: Aviation on the Eastern Front of 1914—Evolution of a Critical Role for Modern Warfare Authors: Terrence J. Finnegan, Helmut Jäger, and Carl J. Bobrow | Reviewed by Greg Pickell, US Army lieutenant colonel (retired) | Providing valuable historical context, Without Flyers, No... MORE

Book Review by Greg Pickell:
Without Flyers, No Tannenberg: Aviation on the Eastern Front of 1914—Evolution of a Critical Role for Modern Warfare

Authors: Terrence J. Finnegan, Helmut Jäger, and Carl J. Bobrow

Reviewed by Greg Pickell, US Army lieutenant colonel (retired)

Providing valuable historical context, Without Flyers, No Tannenberg “offers a wealth of previously unavailable information and provided needed context to the German triumph over the Russian 2nd Army in the opening weeks of the First World War.” The book describes how aviation developed in Germany and Russia and offers detailed maps and graphics. The latter part of the book covers events following the defeat of Russian General Samsonov’s 2nd Army, to include the Battle of the Masurian Lakes and the campaign that followed.

2023 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment
August 24, 2023 — The United States operates within a global context that is increasingly complex, interconnected, and unpredictable. The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment serves as a guide to define broadly the contemporary security landscape and the diverse range of interests that shape our national security agenda... MORE

2023 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment
The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment serves as a guide for academics and practitioners in the defense community on the current challenges and opportunities in the strategic environment. This year’s publication outlines key strategic issues across the four broad themes of Regional Challenges and Opportunities, Domestic Challenges, Institutional Challenges, and Domains Impacting US Strategic Advantage. These themes represent a wide range of topics affecting national security and provide a global assessment of the strategic environment to help focus the defense community on research and publication. Strategic competition with the People’s Republic of China and the implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine remain dominant challenges to US national security interests across the globe. However, the evolving security environment also presents new and unconventional threats, such as cyberattacks, terrorism, transnational crime, and the implications of rapid technological advancements in fields such as artificial intelligence. At the same time, the US faces domestic and institutional challenges in the form of recruiting and retention shortfalls in the all-volunteer force, the prospect of contested logistics in large-scale combat operations, and the health of the US Defense Industrial Base. Furthermore, rapidly evolving security landscapes in the Arctic region and the space domain pose unique potential challenges to the Army’s strategic advantage.
https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/962/

NATO’s Defense Demands Eastern Front Improvements
July 20, 2023 — John R. Deni The recent summit largely avoided urgent questions about the mismatch between available forces and the Russian threat. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s rather impolitic reaction to the news that his country would not receive a firm timetable for membership in NATO stole the show at the alliance’s summit in Vilnius last week... MORE

We don’t really know which NATO allies are pulling their weight.
July 10, 2023 — Here’s how to fix that. John R. Deni The Defense Investment Pledge agreed to by NATO allies in 2014 is reaching its decade-long finish line. The Alliance’s own data indicate that not all allies will cross that line, as many still spend less than the equivalent of 2 percent of their gross domestic products on defense and several still devote less... MORE

Debate continues over whether to invite Ukraine to join NATO
July 10, 2023 — Podcast appearance. John R. Deni As leaders of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, or NATO, meet at the annual summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, the conversation continues over whether to invite Ukraine to join the alliance and if so, when.Here & Now‘s Celeste Headlee speaks with John Deni, research professor at the U.S. Army War College and a... MORE

Don’t Promise Ukraine NATO Membership Now
May 19, 2023 — Bringing Kyiv into the alliance soon could harden Russia’s resolve, frustrate potential peace efforts, and play into the Kremlin’s propaganda.John R. DeniIn two months, NATO leaders will gather in Vilnius for their annual summit, and leading the agenda will be the West’s ongoing support for Ukraine today and in the years ahead. Prominent experts... MORE

Don’t Promise Ukraine NATO Membership Now
John R. Deni
Bringing Kyiv into the alliance soon could harden Russia’s resolve, frustrate potential peace efforts, and play into the Kremlin’s propaganda.

Enabling NATO’s Collective Defense
December 13, 2022 — In 2014 NATO’s Centre of Excellence-Defence Against Terrorism (COE-DAT) launched the inaugural course on “Critical Infrastructure Protection Against Terrorist Attacks.” As this course garnered increased attendance and interest, the core lecturer team felt the need to update the course in critical infrastructure (CI) taking into account the shift from an emphasis on “protection” of CI assets to “security and resiliency.”... MORE

Enabling NATO’s Collective Defense:
Critical Infrastructure Security and Resiliency (NATO COE-DAT Handbook 1)

Countering Terrorism on Tomorrow’s Battlefield
December 2, 2022 — Every day, malicious actors target emerging technologies and medical resilience or seek to wreak havoc in the wake of disasters brought on by climate change, energy insecurity, and supply-chain disruptions. Countering Terrorism on Tomorrow’s Battlefield is a handbook on how to strengthen critical infrastructure resilience in an era of emerging... MORE

Countering Terrorism on Tomorrow’s Battlefield: Critical Infrastructure Security and Resiliency NATO COE-DAT Handbook 2 by Sarah J. Lohmann.

What Ukraine Taught NATO about Hybrid Warfare
November 9, 2022 — Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 forced the United States and its NATO partners to be confronted with the impact of hybrid warfare far beyond the battlefield. Targeting Europe’s energy security, Russia’s malign influence campaigns and malicious cyber intrusions are affecting global gas prices, driving up food costs, disrupting supply chains and... MORE

European Strategies in Post-Pandemic Peer Competition: Implications for America
September 22, 2022 — Dr. John R. Deni, Sept 25 2022 in Taylor & Francis OnlineThe recent reconceptualization of national and/or defense strategies, hangovers from the sovereign debt crisis, and the impact of the pandemic-induced recession in four of the most powerful European countries – France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom – will have profound implications... MORE