Recent Publications

Bolivia’s Descent into Deep Chaos and the Implications for the Region
November 22, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis | The resource rich, land-locked South American nation of Bolivia has traditionally received limited attention from Washington. The country, historically mired in poverty, corruption, and cycles of political conflict is one of the hemisphere’s major sources for coca and illegally mined gold, as well as a transit country for both... MORE

The resource rich, land-locked South American nation of Bolivia has traditionally received limited attention from Washington. The country, historically mired in poverty, corruption, and cycles of political conflict is one of the hemisphere’s major sources for coca and illegally mined gold, as well as a transit country for both. Bolivia’s leftist populist Movement for Socialism (MAS) governments of Evo Morales and Luis Arce have made the country an important point of entry into the hemisphere for extra-hemispheric U.S. rivals including the People’s Republic of China, Russia, and Iran.
In recent weeks, a power struggle has emerged for control of the MAS between current President Luis Arce and former President Evo Morales. This has implications for the stability of the country as it plays out in the context of crosscutting political rivalries, economic difficulties, and a significant criminal economy with competing interests. This work examines the deteriorating situation in Bolivia and the potential implications for the region.
Image adapted from:
https://theglobalamericans.org/2023/11/bolivias-descent-into-deep-chaos-and-the-implications-for-the-region/

Implications of the Hamas Terror Attacks and the Israeli Response on Latin America and the Global Strategic Environment
October 13, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis | My heart goes out to the almost 1,000 Israelis brutally slaughtered by Hamas on October 7, 2023, terrorist attacks this week. Few not actually living this moment in Israel, and certainly not me, can truly understand the grief and outrage that Hamas’ acts of depravity have sparked among Israelis. A nation forged from history’s most... MORE

Evan Ellis - Implications of the Hamas Terror Attacks and the Israeli Response on Latin America and the Global Strategic Environment
(for IndraStra at https://www.indrastra.com/2023/10/implications-of-hamas-terror-attacks.html)

The Impact of the Turn to the Left on the Advance of the People’s Republic of China in Latin
October 5, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis | This work uses the comparative method, complemented by quantitative data, to examine engagement by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in Latin America as a function of government type, across a range of activities, including trade, investment, infrastructure projects, security relations, and technical architectures over the past... MORE

R. Evan Ellis
This work uses the comparative method, complemented by quantitative data, to examine engagement by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in Latin America as a function of government type, across a range of activities, including trade, investment, infrastructure projects, security relations, and technical architectures over the past two decades. The findings indicate that the PRC establishes distinct and often broader forms of engagement with populist, anti-US governments, although this does not necessarily translate into a higher volume of PRC investment or overall trade with those governments. This is the first major work in the growing China–Latin America literature to explicitly analyze the dynamics of PRC engagement across regime type. It contributes to strategic analysis of the PRC challenge in the region by the operational force, including the identification of risks, and the formulation of responses, including credible messaging, in support of a coordinated whole-of-government response to the PRC challenge.

Read now: The Impact of the Turn to the Left on the Advance of the People’s Republic of China in Latin

Image adapted from FreePik (https://www.freepik.com/free-vector/coronavirus-map_7456298.htm)

Fernando Villavicencio and the Self-Destructive Collaboration between China and Populist Regimes
August 15, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis Mexico’s relationship with China has always been complicated. Although Chinese migrants formed an important part in Mexico’s national story, the perceived “otherness” of the Chinese community and competition for work led to occasional violence against ethnic Chinese. With the contemporary expansion of the PRC economy, the position of... MORE

Fernando Villavicencio and the Self-Destructive Collaboration between China and Populist Regimes
R. Evan Ellis

Mexico’s Engagement with China and Choices for its Future
August 11, 2023 — R. Evan EllisAs Mexico looks to national elections in June 2024, the expanding engagement that the country is backing into with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) will have profound implications for the country’s future, as well as the United States and the rest of the region.BackgroundMexico’s relationship with China has always been complicated... MORE

PRC Engagement in The Bahamas
August 2, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis Introduction In his March 2023 annual posture statement to the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee, head of U.S. Northern Command General Glen VanHerck referred to the substantial commercial and other presence of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in the Bahamas as “efforts to gain a foothold only 50 miles from the U.S. East... MORE

PRC Engagement in The Bahamas
R. Evan Ellis
China, South & Latin America, SSI Worldwide

PacNet #49 – China’s military engagements with Cuba: Implications of a strategic advance in Latin America
July 30, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis In June 2023, The Wall Street Journal reported that the People’s Republic of China has heavily invested in a cash-strapped Cuba in exchange for access to an electronic intelligence collection (ELINT) facility, and negotiated an agreement to train Chinese soldiers on the north side of the island. These developments have been met with... MORE

Security Challenges in the Caribbean: Threats, Migration, and International Cooperation
July 6, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis The Caribbean faces growing security challenges, ranging from geopolitical tensions to armed violence and the gang epidemic, exacerbated by drug trafficking and competition for drug routes. The region has also been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, mass migration, and money laundering. Caribbean countries require integrated solutions... MORE

Security Challenges in the Caribbean: Threats, Migration, and International Cooperation, R. Evan Ellis, SSI Worldwide

Brazil and the Illiberal Anti-U.S. Alliance
June 20, 2023 — R. Evan EllisDuring World War II, Brazil contributed to the security of allied trans-Atlantic shipping routes and sent a division-sized expeditionary force to Italy to help liberate Europe from Hitler and Mussolini’s murderous dictatorships. In 1985, Brazilians rallied around Tancredo Neves and José Sarney to end undemocratic military rule... MORE

Brazil and the Illiberal Anti-U.S. Alliance
Jun 20, 2023 | China, R. Evan Ellis, South & Latin America, SSI Worldwide

The Advance of China and Authoritarian Populism in Honduras
June 9, 2023 — R. Evan EllisIn Latin America, it is strategically important that the United States distinguish between principled left-oriented democratic regimes versus those which seek to manage the alarm of Washington and Western investors as they pursue a fundamentally anti-democratic, anti-market, anti-U.S. course. It is time for Washington to recognize that... MORE

The Advance of China and Authoritarian Populism in Honduras
R. Evan Ellis

The Trouble with China’s Global Civilization Initiative (on The Diplomat)
June 1, 2023 — R. Evan EllisHistory is marked by the recurring tragedy of publics rallying around leaders with attractive-sounding rhetoric, from new constitutions to government-led development and social justice, to prosperity through privatization. Whether on the right or the left, the most consistent outcome is to empower and benefit the elites selling the... MORE

Panama’s Popular Discontent Is Still Simmering
May 27, 2023 — R. Evan EllisWith roughly a year to go before Panama’s next general election scheduled for May 2024, Panamanians are broadly frustrated with the country’s current conditions. During a weeklong visit last month, government officials, academics and others I spoke with expressed concerns over insecurity, the economy, corruption and the stalled... MORE

Panama’s Popular Discontent Is Still Simmering
R. Evan Ellis