Recent Publications

China’s Security Engagement in Latin America and the Caribbean
February 26, 2024 — An overview of the characteristics and trends in China’s security engagement in the region, and how it is evolving. China’s activities in the security and defense sector in Latin America and the Caribbean are a small but strategically significant portion of its engagement with the region. Beijing has openly acknowledged its interest in engaging with the region on security matters in the 2008 and 2016... MORE

China’s Security Engagement in Latin America and the Caribbean
An overview of the characteristics and trends in China’s security engagement in the region, and how it is evolving.

Why North Korea Survives
February 20, 2024 — Here’s how the Kim regime has proven so resilient.North Korea’s recent jettisoning of reunification with South Korea as a national goal has raised much speculation about Pyongyang’s goals and strategy. Relatively overlooked in recent debates over whether the Kim regime might be preparing for war with South Korea—more than it is usually, anyway—is... MORE

Why North Korea Survives
Here’s how the Kim regime has proven so resilient.
Sheena Chestnut Greitens

China-Latin America Space Cooperation: An Overview
February 16, 2024 — As China has increased its political and economic cooperation with Latin America, it has also expanded its space engagement with the region.In September 2023, during a visit to China, Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro announced an agreement in which China would transport Venezuelans to a research base it plans to build on the moon, the... MORE

China-Latin America Space Cooperation: An Overview
By R. Evan Ellis

As China has increased its political and economic cooperation with Latin America, it has also expanded its space engagement with the region.
https://thediplomat.com/2024/02/china-latin-america-space-cooperation-an-overview/

CMSI Note #4: Deck Cargo Ships: Another Option for a Cross-Strait Invasion
February 14, 2024 — CMSI Perspectives and Key Take-Aways: In addition to RO-RO ferries, the PLA also uses another class of RO-RO ship, the deck cargo ship, in sea transport training exercises. Deck cargo ships are widely used in China’s ocean engineering and construction industry, constituting an existing and large-scale volume of lift capacity. The simple design and... MORE

CMSI Note #4: Deck Cargo Ships: Another Option for a Cross-Strait Invasion | Authors Conor M. Kennedy

PRC Engagement with Latin America, and Central and Eastern Europe: Comparisons and Insights
February 8, 2024 — PRC Engagement with Latin America, and Central and Eastern Europe: Comparisons and Insights R. Evan Ellis Over the past twenty years, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has expanded its political, institutional, economic, and other forms of engagement with all regions of the world. Not surprisingly, because engagement in Latin America and the... MORE

PRC Engagement with Latin America, and Central and Eastern Europe: Comparisons and Insights | R. Evan Ellis

The Mixed Message About China's Economy
February 8, 2024 — Chinese Premier Li Qiang spoke this week at the World Economic Forum in Switzerland, saying the Chinese economy was doing just fine. Signals out of Beijing have been conveying a different message.SHEENA CHESTNUT GREITENS: So I think that the idea that economic growth created the basis for stability for the Chinese Communist Party was the... MORE

The Mixed Message About China's Economy | NPR Podcast Appearance by Sheena Greitens

Strategic Implications of the Deterioration of the Rules-Based International Order
February 2, 2024 — The multiple crises currently playing out in Ukraine, the Middle East, the Taiwan straits, and even Guyana’s Essequibo region, reflect a deterioration of the rules-based international order that has served as the foundation for economic growth, technological progress, and the limitation of interstate conflict since the end of the Second World War... MORE

Strategic Implications of the Deterioration of the Rules-Based International Order | R. Evan Ellis

Assessing the Outcome of Taiwan's Presidential Election | 2024 Elections to Watch
January 18, 2024 — On January 13 Taiwanese voters headed to the polls, where they elected William Lai to serve as president. Carnegie Asia Program non-resident scholar Sheena Greitens breaks down the results of the election and the various issues at play.Watch on YouTube MORE

On January 13 Taiwanese voters headed to the polls, where they elected William Lai to serve as president.

Carnegie Asia Program non-resident scholar Sheena Greitens breaks down the results of the election and the various issues at play.

Deterrence Gap: Avoiding War in the Taiwan Strait
January 5, 2024 — Jared M. McKinney and Peter Harris | The likelihood China will attack Taiwan in the next decade is high and will continue to be so, unless Taipei and Washington take urgent steps to restore deterrence across the Taiwan Strait. This monograph introduces the concept of interlocking deterrents, explains why deterrents lose their potency with the... MORE

The likelihood China will attack Taiwan in the next decade is high and will continue to be so, unless Taipei and Washington take urgent steps to restore deterrence across the Taiwan Strait. This monograph introduces the concept of interlocking deterrents, explains why deterrents lose their potency with the passage of time, and provides concrete recommendations for how Taiwan, the United States, and other regional powers can develop multiple, interlocking deterrents that will ensure Taiwanese security in the short and longer terms. By joining deterrence theory with an empirical analysis of Taiwanese, Chinese, and US policies, the monograph provides US military and policy practitioners new insights into ways to deter the People’s Republic of China from invading Taiwan without relying exclusively on the threat of great-power war.
Jared M. McKinney and Peter Harris
Keywords
Taiwan, China, deterrence, cross-strait relations, Indo-Pacific, East Asia, US foreign policy, international security

Disciplines
Defense and Security Studies

https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/964

New Leaders in “National” Security after China’s 20th Party Congress
November 30, 2023 — Sheena Chestnut Greitens | The 20th Party Congress in October 2022 affirmed the centrality of Xi Jinping’s vision of national (or state) security in Chinese domestic and foreign policy. Trends in national security discourse and policy at the start of Xi’s third term indicate that Chinese leaders continue to emphasize elements of the “comprehensive... MORE

National Security after China’s 20th Party Congress: Trends in Discourse and Policy (prcleader.org) | Sheena Chestnut Greitens

China Maritime Report No. 32: The PCH191 Modular Long-Range Rocket Launcher: Reshaping the PLA Army's Role in a Cross-Strait Campaign
November 15, 2023 — With its fielding of the PCH191 multiple rocket launcher (MRL) and its variety of long-range precision munitions, the PLA Army (PLAA) has become arguably the most important contributor of campaign and tactical firepower during a joint island landing campaign against Taiwan. No longer simply the primary source of amphibious and air assault forces,... MORE

"China Maritime Report No. 32: The PCH191 Modular Long-Range Rocket Lau" by Joshua Arostegui (usnwc.edu)

National Security after China’s 20th Party Congress: Trends in Discourse and Policy
August 29, 2023 — The 20th Party Congress in October 2022 affirmed the centrality of Xi Jinping’s vision of national (or state) security in Chinese domestic and foreign policy. Trends in national security discourse and policy at the start of Xi’s third term indicate that Chinese leaders continue to emphasize elements of the “comprehensive national security concept”... MORE