Parameters | Winter 2023–24 > US Army War College - Strategic Studies Institute

Welcome to the Winter 2023–24 issue of Parameters.

This issue consists of two In Focus commentaries which bring to light observations from the Russia-Ukraine War, two forums addressing deterrence and strategic influence, and the inaugural Director’s Corner for the China Landpower Studies Center (CLSC).

Keywords: deterrence; Ukraine; Russia; Putin; NATO; unmanned aerial systems; deep strike; reconnaissance-strike complex; electronic warfare; Russia-Ukraine War; nuclear; misperception; Russia; multidomain operations; freedom to roam; grand strategy; offshore balancing; offensive realism; regional hegemony; stopping power of water; Middle East; integrated deterrence; strategy; Cold War; flexible response; New Look; economic interests; globalization; strategic competition; multinational exercises; bilateral exercises; reflexive control; strategic behavior; strategic analysis; nonlinearity; complex adaptive system; civil-military relations; general officers; promotions; flag officers; political participation; People’s Liberation Army; Chinese Communist Party; Belt and Road Initiative; China; Landpower; security assistance; Iran; Operation Iraqi Freedom; Operation Enduring Freedom; Bill Clinton; George W. Bush; Barack Obama; Civil War; Army of Tennessee; John B. Hood; William Tecumseh Sherman; Battle of Atlanta; Close Combat Lethality Task Force; Secretary of Defense General James N. Mattis; Iraq; Vicksburg Campaign; Ulysses S. Grant; William T. Sherman; Chickasaw Bayou; World War I; World War II; W. E. B. Du Bois; Talented Tenth; 1920s; citizen-soldier; National Guard; modern Army; Harry S. Truman; atomic bomb; Japan; nuclear war; North Korea; George W. Bush; Kim Il-Sung; Kim Jong-Un; China; Xi Jinping; Chinese Dream; authoritarianism; diplomacy; Samuel P. Huntington; Carl von Clausewitz; Dwight D. Eisenhower; George S. Patton; Kenneth Payne; Jan Smuts; South Africa; World War I in Africa; German South West Africa; German East Africa

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The US Army War College Quarterly Parameters - Winter 2023-24 Articles

Welcome to the Winter 2023–24 issue of Parameters. This issue consists of two In Focus commentaries which bring to light observations from the Russia-Ukraine War, two forums addressing deterrence and strategic influence, and the inaugural Director’s Corner for the China Landpower Studies Center (CLSC). Keywords: deterrence; Ukraine; Russia; Putin; NATO; unmanned aerial systems; deep strike; reconnaissance-strike complex; electronic warfare; Russia-Ukraine War; nuclear; misperception; Russia; multidomain operations; freedom to roam; grand strategy; offshore balancing; offensive realism; regional hegemony; stopping power of water; Middle East; integrated deterrence; strategy; Cold War; flexible response; New Look; economic interests; globalization; strategic competition; multinational exercises; bilateral exercises; reflexive control; strategic behavior; strategic analysis; nonlinearity; complex adaptive system; civil-military relations; general officers; promotions; flag officers; political participation; People’s Liberation Army; Chinese Communist Party; Belt and Road Initiative; China; Landpower; security assistance; Iran; Operation Iraqi Freedom; Operation Enduring Freedom; Bill Clinton; George W. Bush; Barack Obama; Civil War; Army of Tennessee; John B. Hood; William Tecumseh Sherman; Battle of Atlanta; Close Combat Lethality Task Force; Secretary of Defense General James N. Mattis; Iraq; Vicksburg Campaign; Ulysses S. Grant; William T. Sherman; Chickasaw Bayou; World War I; World War II; W. E. B. Du Bois; Talented Tenth; 1920s; citizen-soldier; National Guard; modern Army; Harry S. Truman; atomic bomb; Japan; nuclear war; North Korea; George W. Bush; Kim Il-Sung; Kim Jong-Un; China; Xi Jinping; Chinese Dream; authoritarianism; diplomacy; Samuel P. Huntington; Carl von Clausewitz; Dwight D. Eisenhower; George S. Patton; Kenneth Payne; Jan Smuts; South Africa; World War I in Africa; German South West Africa; German East Africa

Was the Russian Invasion of Ukraine a Failure of Western Deterrence?
by Bettina Renz
In February 2022, many observers initially evaluated the Russian invasion of Ukraine as a failure of Western deterrence. That assessment was and is flawed inasmuch as the West never articulated a clear strategy to deter such an invasion. Engaging with relevant conceptual debates about how deterrence works and relating this information to what the West did and did not do in the run-up to the invasion, this article shows that deterrence efforts were based on problematic assumptions about the Kremlin’s motivations. The study concludes with lessons for Western military and policy practitioners with the intention to enable better future thinking about how to deter Russia.

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The US Army War College Quarterly Parameters - Winter 2023-24 | Was the Russian Invasion of Ukraine a Failure of Western Deterrence? | by Bettina Renz

Was the Russian Invasion of Ukraine a Failure of Western Deterrence? by Bettina Renz In February 2022, many observers initially evaluated the Russian invasion of Ukraine as a failure of Western deterrence. That assessment was and is flawed inasmuch as the West never articulated a clear strategy to deter such an invasion. Engaging with relevant conceptual debates about how deterrence works and relating this information to what the West did and did not do in the run-up to the invasion, this article shows that deterrence efforts were based on problematic assumptions about the Kremlin’s motivations. The study concludes with lessons for Western military and policy practitioners with the intention to enable better future thinking about how to deter Russia.

The Russia-Ukraine War holds many lessons for the US Army and American policymakers and leaders on the nature and role of reconnaissance-strike complexes in modern combat, especially Ukraine’s development of a battle-management system that fuses unmanned aerial systems and satellite reconnaissance to enable the fire coordination for deep strikes into the enemy rear. In the research presented here, open-source analysis and interviews in Ukraine focus on the development and employment of reconnaissance-strike complexes with respect to deep strike and the likelihood of mutual territorial attack.
Keywords: unmanned aerial systems, deep strike, reconnaissance-strike complex, electronic warfare, Russia-Ukraine War

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The US Army War College Quarterly Parameters - Winter 2023-24 Articles | Ukraine’s Lessons for Future Combat: Unmanned Aerial Systems and Deep Strike | by Harry Halem

The US Army War College Quarterly Parameters - Winter 2023-24 Articles | Ukraine’s Lessons for Future Combat: Unmanned Aerial Systems and Deep Strike | by Harry Halem The Russia-Ukraine War holds many lessons for the US Army and American policymakers and leaders on the nature and role of reconnaissance-strike complexes in modern combat, especially Ukraine’s development of a battle-management system that fuses unmanned aerial systems and satellite reconnaissance to enable the fire coordination for deep strikes into the enemy rear. In the research presented here, open-source analysis and interviews in Ukraine focus on the development and employment of reconnaissance-strike complexes with respect to deep strike and the likelihood of mutual territorial attack. Keywords: unmanned aerial systems, deep strike, reconnaissance-strike complex, electronic warfare, Russia-Ukraine War

The US Army War College Quarterly Parameters - Winter 2023-24 | Deterring Russian Nonstrategic Nuclear Weapons: A Revised Approach | by Cliff R. Parsons
A change in deterrence thought and strategy is necessary to avoid nuclear escalation in armed conflict with Russia. Traditional threat based deterrence strategies will not be successful, and a new strategy must address the conditions that might cause Russian leadership to employ nuclear weapons. An examination of the Able Archer 83 exercise using an original framework highlights the ways Russian interests and US actions interact to generate misperception and inhibited deterrence. The US military must execute extremely restrained, deliberate, and empathetic operations that pursue minimalist military objectives to achieve the political goal.
Keywords: deterrence, nuclear, misperception, Russia, multidomain operations

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The US Army War College Quarterly Parameters - Winter 2023-24 | Deterring Russian Nonstrategic Nuclear Weapons: A Revised Approach | by Cliff R. Parsons

The US Army War College Quarterly Parameters - Winter 2023-24 | Deterring Russian Nonstrategic Nuclear Weapons: A Revised Approach | by Cliff R. Parsons A change in deterrence thought and strategy is necessary to avoid nuclear escalation in armed conflict with Russia. Traditional threat based deterrence strategies will not be successful, and a new strategy must address the conditions that might cause Russian leadership to employ nuclear weapons. An examination of the Able Archer 83 exercise using an original framework highlights the ways Russian interests and US actions interact to generate misperception and inhibited deterrence. The US military must execute extremely restrained, deliberate, and empathetic operations that pursue minimalist military objectives to achieve the political goal. Keywords: deterrence, nuclear, misperception, Russia, multidomain operations

The US Army War College Quarterly Parameters - Winter 2023-24 | Ambivalent Offshore Balancer: America in the Middle East and Beyond | by John M. Schuessler
This article enters the debate on American grand strategy by questioning the logic underpinning offshore balancing. It concludes that the United States is an ambivalent balancer due to the stopping power of water. It builds on the relevant literature in International Relations, producing a novel set of theoretical propositions that are applied to the contemporary Middle East. There and elsewhere, the United States could fail to maintain the balance of power when it is most threatened.
Keywords: freedom to roam, grand strategy, offshore balancing, offensive realism, regional hegemony, stopping power of water, Middle East

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The US Army War College Quarterly Parameters - Winter 2023-24 | Ambivalent Offshore Balancer: America in the Middle East and Beyond | by John M. Schuessler

The US Army War College Quarterly Parameters - Winter 2023-24 | Ambivalent Offshore Balancer: America in the Middle East and Beyond | by John M. Schuessler This article enters the debate on American grand strategy by questioning the logic underpinning offshore balancing. It concludes that the United States is an ambivalent balancer due to the stopping power of water. It builds on the relevant literature in International Relations, producing a novel set of theoretical propositions that are applied to the contemporary Middle East. There and elsewhere, the United States could fail to maintain the balance of power when it is most threatened. Keywords: freedom to roam, grand strategy, offshore balancing, offensive realism, regional hegemony, stopping power of water, Middle East

The US Army War College Quarterly Parameters - Winter 2023-24 | Integrating Army Capabilities into Deterrence: The Early Cold War | by Robert F. Williams

The strategy of integrated deterrence is a repackaged version of Cold War strategies. The integration of assets to deter adversaries was part of both the Eisenhower and Kennedy administrations' overarching strategies that forced the military services to change their operating concepts, capabilities, and doctrine simultaneously. The US Army is an example of how national strategy forces organizational changes. This article assesses how the Eisenhower and Kennedy administrations forced institutional change while considering the significance of integrating deterrence. These examples will assist US military and policy practitioners with adapting their organizations to existing national defense strategies.

Keywords: integrated deterrence, strategy, Cold War, flexible response, New Look

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The US Army War College Quarterly Parameters - Winter 2023-24 | Integrating Army Capabilities into Deterrence: The Early Cold War | by Robert F. Williams

The US Army War College Quarterly Parameters - Winter 2023-24 | Integrating Army Capabilities into Deterrence: The Early Cold War | by Robert F. Williams The strategy of integrated deterrence is a repackaged version of Cold War strategies. The integration of assets to deter adversaries was part of both the Eisenhower and Kennedy administrations' overarching strategies that forced the military services to change their operating concepts, capabilities, and doctrine simultaneously. The US Army is an example of how national strategy forces organizational changes. This article assesses how the Eisenhower and Kennedy administrations forced institutional change while considering the significance of integrating deterrence. These examples will assist US military and policy practitioners with adapting their organizations to existing national defense strategies. Keywords: integrated deterrence, strategy, Cold War, flexible response, New Look

The US Army War College Quarterly Parameters - Winter 2023-24 | Competing for Global Influence: How Best to Assess Potential Strategic Partners | by Brian G. Forester
To compete effectively for global influence, US Army and defense planners should focus on economic globalization in addition to security interests when assessing potential foreign military partners. The results of a quantitative analysis of US-led exercise participants between 1990 and 2016 demonstrate the variety of interests, including economic, that underly a partner’s decision to train or not with US forces. Since the US Army bills itself as the “partner of choice,” this piece will interest military and policy practitioners involved in strategically assessing potential international military partners.

Keywords: economic interests, globalization, strategic competition, multinational exercises, bilateral exercises

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The US Army War College Quarterly Parameters - Winter 2023-24 | Competing for Global Influence: How Best to Assess Potential Strategic Partners | by Brian G. Forester

The US Army War College Quarterly Parameters - Winter 2023-24 | Competing for Global Influence: How Best to Assess Potential Strategic Partners | by Brian G. Forester To compete effectively for global influence, US Army and defense planners should focus on economic globalization in addition to security interests when assessing potential foreign military partners. The results of a quantitative analysis of US-led exercise participants between 1990 and 2016 demonstrate the variety of interests, including economic, that underly a partner’s decision to train or not with US forces. Since the US Army bills itself as the “partner of choice,” this piece will interest military and policy practitioners involved in strategically assessing potential international military partners. Keywords: economic interests, globalization, strategic competition, multinational exercises, bilateral exercises

The US Army War College Quarterly Parameters - Winter 2023-24 | Reflexive Control: Influencing Strategic Behavior | by Maria W. R. de Goeij
Decisionmakers can use reflexive control to change the other’s perceptions about their utility sets. Reflexive control contains underlying elements that could help give structure to analyses of strategic behavior by using a nonlinear approach that aims to improve the quality of assessments. This exploratory literature study reviews the interpretations of the concept of reflexive control, how elements of reflexive control link to the more widely accepted existing body of knowledge, and how they could be valuable additions to the current work on the analysis of strategic behavior.

Keywords: reflexive control, strategic behavior, strategic analysis, nonlinearity, complex adaptive system

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The US Army War College Quarterly Parameters - Winter 2023-24 | Reflexive Control: Influencing Strategic Behavior | by Maria W. R. de Goeij

The US Army War College Quarterly Parameters - Winter 2023-24 | Reflexive Control: Influencing Strategic Behavior | by Maria W. R. de Goeij Decisionmakers can use reflexive control to change the other’s perceptions about their utility sets. Reflexive control contains underlying elements that could help give structure to analyses of strategic behavior by using a nonlinear approach that aims to improve the quality of assessments. This exploratory literature study reviews the interpretations of the concept of reflexive control, how elements of reflexive control link to the more widely accepted existing body of knowledge, and how they could be valuable additions to the current work on the analysis of strategic behavior. Keywords: reflexive control, strategic behavior, strategic analysis, nonlinearity, complex adaptive system

The US Army War College Quarterly Parameters - Winter 2023-24 | FROM THE ARCHIVES: Are Retired Flag Officers Overparticipating in the Political Process? | by Zachary E. Griffiths
Retired United States general and flag officers participate politically as individuals and in groups. Purportedly, participation damages civil-military relations. This article argues these activities, including but not limited to endorsements of candidates, do little harm to US democratic institutions and to the nonpartisan reputation of the military institution.
Keywords: civil-military relations, general officers, promotions, flag officers, political participation

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The US Army War College Quarterly Parameters - Winter 2023-24 | FROM THE ARCHIVES: Are Retired Flag Officers Overparticipating in the Political Process? | by Zachary E. Griffiths

The US Army War College Quarterly Parameters - Winter 2023-24 | FROM THE ARCHIVES: Are Retired Flag Officers Overparticipating in the Political Process? | by Zachary E. Griffiths Retired United States general and flag officers participate politically as individuals and in groups. Purportedly, participation damages civil-military relations. This article argues these activities, including but not limited to endorsements of candidates, do little harm to US democratic institutions and to the nonpartisan reputation of the military institution. Keywords: civil-military relations, general officers, promotions, flag officers, political participation

The US Army War College Quarterly Parameters - Winter 2023-24 | CLSC DIRECTOR’S CORNER: Introduction to the China Landpower Studies Center | by Richard D. Butler
This first installment of a new regular forum will discuss the purpose, organization, capabilities, initial research agenda, and expected products of the Strategic Studies Institute’s forthcoming China Landpower Studies Center. The center will provide senior leaders and practitioners with a better understanding of the strategies, capabilities, and integration of the People’s Liberation Army into the Chinese Communist Party’s campaign to turn the rules-based international order to its advantage.

Keywords: People’s Liberation Army, Chinese Communist Party, Belt and Road Initiative, China, Landpower

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CLSC DIRECTOR’S CORNER: Introduction to the China Landpower Studies Center | by Richard D. Butler

The US Army War College Quarterly Parameters - Winter 2023-24 | CLSC DIRECTOR’S CORNER: Introduction to the China Landpower Studies Center | by Richard D. Butler This first installment of a new regular forum will discuss the purpose, organization, capabilities, initial research agenda, and expected products of the Strategic Studies Institute’s forthcoming China Landpower Studies Center. The center will provide senior leaders and practitioners with a better understanding of the strategies, capabilities, and integration of the People’s Liberation Army into the Chinese Communist Party’s campaign to turn the rules-based international order to its advantage. Keywords: People’s Liberation Army, Chinese Communist Party, Belt and Road Initiative, China, Landpower

Parameters | Winter 2023–24

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The Winter issue is out! In this edition: “Was the Russian Invasion of Ukraine a Failure of Western Deterrence?” by Bettina Renz and “Ukraine’s Lessons for Future Combat: Unmanned Aerial Systems and Deep Strike,” by Harry Halem; CLSC DIRECTOR’S CORNER “Introduction to the China Landpower Studies Center”; From deterring major powers, to achieving strategic influence, and beyond.

From the Editor in Chief
Antulio J. Echevarria II
Welcome to the Winter 2023–24 issue of Parameters. This issue opens with two In Focus commentaries offering observations from the Russia-Ukraine War, two forums addressing deterrence and strategic influence, and the inaugural Director’s Corner for the China Landpower Studies Center (CLSC).

In Focus

Was the Russian Invasion of Ukraine a Failure of Western Deterrence?
Bettina Renz
Did the West fail to deter Russia? Join author Bettina Renz’s exploration of Western deterrence strategy in the run-up to the February 2022 invasion.

Ukraine’s Lessons for Future Combat: Unmanned Aerial Systems and Deep Strike
Harry Halem
What lessons can the US Army and American policymakers learn about the nature and role of reconnaissance-strike complexes in modern combat from the Russia-Ukraine War?

Deterring Major Powers

Deterring Russian Nonstrategic Nuclear Weapons: A Revised Approach
Cliff R. Parsons
Traditional threat based deterrence may not deter nuclear escalation by Russia. Find out how deterrence via dissuasion and addressing the high probability of misperception by both sides might provide a solution.

Ambivalent Offshore Balancer: America in the Middle East and Beyond
John M. Schuessler
Has the stopping power of water rendered the United States an ambivalent balancer?

Integrating Army Capabilities into Deterrence: The Early Cold War
Robert F. Williams
How did the Eisenhower and Kennedy administrations adoption of national defense strategies based in deterrence force the Army to adapt as an organization? Find out in “Integrating Army Capabilities into Deterrence: The Early Cold War.”

Achieving Strategic Influenece

Competing for Global Influence: How Best to Assess Potential Strategic Partners
Brian G. Forester
What factors impact a nation’s decision to partner with the US military for multinational exercises and what role has globalization played over the last 30 years?

Reflexive Control: Influencing Strategic Behavior
Maria W. R. de Goeij
This comprehensive literature review and analysis of reflexive control demystifies and oft misunderstood concept within international relations and security studies.

From the Archives: Civil-Military Relations

Are Retired Flag Officers Overparticipating in the Political Process?
Zachary E. Griffiths
Another big election year is on the horizon, so it is time to revisit Zachary E. Griffith’s entry in the ongoing debate about what role, if any, retired flag officers should play in the political process.

CLSC Director’s Corner

Introduction to the China Landpower Studies Center
Richard D. Butler
Get to know the purpose, organization, capabilities, initial research agenda, and products of the Strategic Studies Institute’s forthcoming China Landpower Studies Center in the first installment of the “CLSC Director’s Corner.”

Book Reviews

Keywords: deterrence; Ukraine; Russia; Putin; NATO; unmanned aerial systems; deep strike; reconnaissance-strike complex; electronic warfare; Russia-Ukraine War; nuclear; misperception; Russia; multidomain operations; freedom to roam; grand strategy; offshore balancing; offensive realism; regional hegemony; stopping power of water; Middle East; integrated deterrence; strategy; Cold War; flexible response; New Look; economic interests; globalization; strategic competition; multinational exercises; bilateral exercises; reflexive control; strategic behavior; strategic analysis; nonlinearity; complex adaptive system; civil-military relations; general officers; promotions; flag officers; political participation; People’s Liberation Army; Chinese Communist Party; Belt and Road Initiative; China; Landpower; security assistance; Iran; Operation Iraqi Freedom; Operation Enduring Freedom; Bill Clinton; George W. Bush; Barack Obama; Civil War; Army of Tennessee; John B. Hood; William Tecumseh Sherman; Battle of Atlanta; Close Combat Lethality Task Force; Secretary of Defense General James N. Mattis; Iraq; Vicksburg Campaign; Ulysses S. Grant; William T. Sherman; Chickasaw Bayou; World War I; World War II; W. E. B. Du Bois; Talented Tenth; 1920s; citizen-soldier; National Guard; modern Army; Harry S. Truman; atomic bomb; Japan; nuclear war; North Korea; George W. Bush; Kim Il-Sung; Kim Jong-Un; China; Xi Jinping; Chinese Dream; authoritarianism; diplomacy; Samuel P. Huntington; Carl von Clausewitz; Dwight D. Eisenhower; George S. Patton; Kenneth Payne; Jan Smuts; South Africa; World War I in Africa; German South West Africa; German East Africa