Recent Publications

SSI Live 108 – Latin America and Caribbean Outlook for 2024
February 15, 2024 — SSI Live 108 – Latin America and Caribbean Outlook for 2024 – What is the outlook for security, defense, politics, and economics across Latin America and the Caribbean in 2024? How do far-away conflicts in Ukraine or Gaza impact the region? And what’s on the agenda(s) of extraterritorial actors like China, Russia, and Iran in Central America, the... MORE

International Competition in the High North: Kingston Conference on International Security 2022
January 25, 2024 — Editors: Michael E. Lynch, Howard G. CoombsThe 16th annual Kingston Consortium on International Security conference, “International Competition in the High North,” took place on October 11–13, 2022, in Kingston, Ontario, Canada. The conference examined the Arctic region in the context of ongoing climate change and against the backdrop of war in... MORE

On “The Strategic Importance of Taiwan to the United States and Its Allies”
January 23, 2024 — Taiwan has become increasingly important to the United States and its allies as the Russia-Ukraine War has united democracies against authoritarian expansionism and has developed an international democracy-authoritarianism dynamic in global affairs. Part one of this article clearly outlined the geopolitical, economic, and soft-power reasons why Taiwan is strategically... MORE

Deterring War without Threatening War: Rehabilitating the West’s Risk-averse Approach to Deterrence
January 19, 2024 — Shortly after Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, defense scholars began asking why the West’s approach to deterrence had failed. Some critics claimed the West never had an official deterrence policy regarding Ukraine, or at least not a consistent one; others maintained the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty... MORE

Deterring War without Threatening War: Rehabilitating the West’s Risk-averse Approach to Deterrence - Military Strategy Magazine
Antulio J. Echevarria II
https://www.militarystrategymagazine.com/article/deterring-war-without-threatening-war-rehabilitating-the-wests-risk-averse-approach-to-deterrence/

SSI Live 105 – The Dragon and the Bear in Africa
December 14, 2023 — Much is made of the ‘axis of authoritarianism’ emerging between Moscow and Beijing, and it’s clear the PRC is playing an important if only implicit role in supporting Russia’s war on Ukraine. But how do these two strategic actors collaborate in other regions? SSI’s Dr. Bob Hamilton spoke to SSI Live host Dr. John R. Deni to discuss his latest research on whether and how China and Russia interact... MORE

Alarm Grows Over Weakened Militaries and Empty Arsenals in Europe
December 12, 2023 — Budget cuts and an eroded weapons industry have hollowed out armed services; Russia’s invasion of Ukraine reveals risks John R. Deni, as quoted in a recent article in the Wall Street Journal: “People may say the Russians have taken it on the chin, and we don’t need to worry. That’s a valid point, but it ignores residual Russian strength,” said John... MORE

Budget cuts and an eroded weapons industry have hollowed out armed services; Russia’s invasion of Ukraine reveals risks

“People may say the Russians have taken it on the chin, and we don’t need to worry. That’s a valid point, but it ignores residual Russian strength,” said John Deni, a professor at the U.S. Army War College and an expert on European militaries. “If the Russians present us with a mass problem in Europe, the challenge is, can technology and advanced capabilities do it? And there we see some challenges.”

Article quote and background image from:
https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/alarm-nato-weak-military-empty-arsenals-europe-a72b23f4

Would Venezuela Really Invade Essequibo?
December 4, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis | In the context of unfolding global conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine and the dangers of an increasingly aggressive yet economically fragile People’s Republic of China (PRC), Venezuela’s provocative referendum on its claim to two thirds of the territory of neighboring Guyana has received understandably little attention in... MORE

By R. Evan Ellis
In the context of unfolding global conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine and the dangers of an increasingly aggressive yet economically fragile People’s Republic of China (PRC), Venezuela’s provocative referendum on its claim to two thirds of the territory of neighboring Guyana has received understandably little attention in Washington, D.C.
Original background image from article: https://theglobalamericans.org/2023/11/would-venezuela-really-invade-essequibo/

How to stop Ukraine’s NATO bid from derailing Washington summit
December 4, 2023 — John R. Deni for POLITICO | It’s time to tear up the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act. John R. Deni is a research professor at the U.S. Army War College’s Strategic Studies Institute. He’s the author of “NATO and Article 5.” The views expressed are his own.Marking the 75th anniversary of NATO’s founding, the alliance’s next summit in Washington is... MORE

How to stop Ukraine’s NATO bid from derailing Washington summit
by John R. Deni
Marking the 75th anniversary of NATO’s founding, the alliance’s next summit in Washington is just months away, and allies are eagerly preparing the agenda.

This time around, several member countries are keen to avoid the kind of divisive discussions over Ukraine’s path to membership that publicly played out at last year’s summit in Vilnius — and none more so than hosting nation the United States.

Background image from https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ukraine_%E2%80%93_NATO_Commission_chaired_by_Petro_Poroshenko_(2017-07-10)_48.jpg

“Was the Russian Invasion of Ukraine a Failure of Western Deterrence?"
November 22, 2023 — In February 2022, many observers initially evaluated the Russian invasion of Ukraine as a failure of Western deterrence. That assessment was and is flawed inasmuch as the West never articulated a clear strategy to deter such an invasion. Engaging with relevant conceptual debates about how deterrence works and relating this information to what the West did and did not do in the run-up to the invasion, this article shows that... MORE

Parameters | Winter 2023–24
November 20, 2023 — The Winter issue is out! In this edition: “Was the Russian Invasion of Ukraine a Failure of Western Deterrence?” by Bettina Renz and “Ukraine’s Lessons for Future Combat: Unmanned Aerial Systems and Deep Strike,” by Harry Halem; CLSC DIRECTOR’S CORNER “Introduction to the China Landpower Studies Center”; From deterring major powers, to achieving strategic influence, and beyond... MORE

Welcome to the Winter 2023–24 issue of Parameters.

This issue consists of two In Focus commentaries which bring to light observations from the Russia-Ukraine War, two forums addressing deterrence and strategic influence, and the inaugural Director’s Corner for the China Landpower Studies Center (CLSC).

Keywords: deterrence; Ukraine; Russia; Putin; NATO; unmanned aerial systems; deep strike; reconnaissance-strike complex; electronic warfare; Russia-Ukraine War; nuclear; misperception; Russia; multidomain operations; freedom to roam; grand strategy; offshore balancing; offensive realism; regional hegemony; stopping power of water; Middle East; integrated deterrence; strategy; Cold War; flexible response; New Look; economic interests; globalization; strategic competition; multinational exercises; bilateral exercises; reflexive control; strategic behavior; strategic analysis; nonlinearity; complex adaptive system; civil-military relations; general officers; promotions; flag officers; political participation; People’s Liberation Army; Chinese Communist Party; Belt and Road Initiative; China; Landpower; security assistance; Iran; Operation Iraqi Freedom; Operation Enduring Freedom; Bill Clinton; George W. Bush; Barack Obama; Civil War; Army of Tennessee; John B. Hood; William Tecumseh Sherman; Battle of Atlanta; Close Combat Lethality Task Force; Secretary of Defense General James N. Mattis; Iraq; Vicksburg Campaign; Ulysses S. Grant; William T. Sherman; Chickasaw Bayou; World War I; World War II; W. E. B. Du Bois; Talented Tenth; 1920s; citizen-soldier; National Guard; modern Army; Harry S. Truman; atomic bomb; Japan; nuclear war; North Korea; George W. Bush; Kim Il-Sung; Kim Jong-Un; China; Xi Jinping; Chinese Dream; authoritarianism; diplomacy; Samuel P. Huntington; Carl von Clausewitz; Dwight D. Eisenhower; George S. Patton; Kenneth Payne; Jan Smuts; South Africa; World War I in Africa; German South West Africa; German East Africa

The Strategic Importace of Tawian to the United States and Its Allies: Part Two
October 30, 2023 — Taiwan has become increasingly important to the United States and its allies as the Russia-Ukraine War has united democracies against authoritarian expansionism and indeed has developed an international democracy-authoritarianism dynamic in global affairs. Part one of this article clearly outlined the geopolitical, economic, and soft-power reasons why Taiwan is strategically important. Part two reviews the development... MORE

Expert Analysis on Latest Attacks in Ukraine
October 6, 2023 — John R. Deni | Military expert John Deni talks to CNN's Laila Harrak about Russian attacks on civilians, and the question of U.S. aid.Watch the video here: Expert analysis on latest attacks in Ukraine | CNN (https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2023/10/07/exp-ukraine-laila-guest-fst-100702aseg1.cnn)CNN Host Laila Guest interviews John R. Deni on the... MORE

Expert Analysis on Latest Attacks in Ukraine
US Army War College | Strategic Studies Institute

Military expert John Deni talks to CNN's Laila Harrak about Russian attacks on civilians, and the question of U.S. aid.
Expert analysis on latest attacks in Ukraine | CNN (https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2023/10/07/exp-ukraine-laila-guest-fst-100702aseg1.cnn)

CNN Host Laila Guest interviews John R. Deni on the current situation in Ukraine.

Photo is a screenshot of the CNN interview.