Recent Publications - Tag Iran

2023 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment
August 24, 2023 — The United States operates within a global context that is increasingly complex, interconnected, and unpredictable. The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment serves as a guide to define broadly the contemporary security landscape and the diverse range of interests that shape our national security agenda... MORE

2023 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment
The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment serves as a guide for academics and practitioners in the defense community on the current challenges and opportunities in the strategic environment. This year’s publication outlines key strategic issues across the four broad themes of Regional Challenges and Opportunities, Domestic Challenges, Institutional Challenges, and Domains Impacting US Strategic Advantage. These themes represent a wide range of topics affecting national security and provide a global assessment of the strategic environment to help focus the defense community on research and publication. Strategic competition with the People’s Republic of China and the implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine remain dominant challenges to US national security interests across the globe. However, the evolving security environment also presents new and unconventional threats, such as cyberattacks, terrorism, transnational crime, and the implications of rapid technological advancements in fields such as artificial intelligence. At the same time, the US faces domestic and institutional challenges in the form of recruiting and retention shortfalls in the all-volunteer force, the prospect of contested logistics in large-scale combat operations, and the health of the US Defense Industrial Base. Furthermore, rapidly evolving security landscapes in the Arctic region and the space domain pose unique potential challenges to the Army’s strategic advantage.
https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/962/

Coercing Fluently: The Grammar of Coercion in the Twenty-first Century
October 31, 2022 — To illustrate the logic and grammar of coercion, this analysis relies on decision-theory methods, such as game theory, that examine the strategic decision-making process in interactions with adversaries and partners. The intent here is not to offer predictive models of rational-actor behavior. Rather, the intent is to use game theory and similar approaches to understand how coercion works better. This analysis considers competitive interactions between actors that have discrete and qualifiable, if not quantifiable, preferences and who behave rationally, though this analysis acknowledges the behavior that is considered rational is frequently informed by nonrational social, cultural, and psychological factors. Considering these competitive interactions allows one to identify “rules of thumb” that can orient and guide actors as they compete... MORE

A Hard Look at Hard Power: Assessing the Defense Capabilities of Key US Allies and Security Partners—Second Edition
October 30, 2020 — Mr. Gary J. Schmitt, 2020With the United States facing two major revisionist powers, Russia and China, as well as additional security threats from North Korea, Iran, and jihadist terrorism, a critical advantage for the United States is its global network of alliances and strategic partners. As the 2018 National Defense Strategy states, “Alliances... MORE

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Grand Strategy is Attrition: The Logic of Integrating Various Forms of Power in Conflict
April 5, 2019 — Author: Dr Lukas MilevskiView the Executive Summary In this monograph, Dr. Lukas Milevski examines the logic of grand strategy in practice, defined by its most basic building block—combining military and non-military power in war. He lays out competing visions of how to define grand strategy and why the aforementioned building block is the most... MORE

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Maneuvering the Saudi-Iranian Rivalry in the Middle East: How the United States Can Preserve and Protect Its Long-Term Interests in the Region
November 15, 2018 — Author: Mr Gregory AftandilianView the Executive SummaryThis monograph examines the conflicts in the Middle East region between Saudi Arabia and Iran and the so-called proxy wars that are being fought between them, and discusses ways that the United States needs to maneuver carefully in this struggle to preserve its long-term interests in the area... MORE

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Strategic Insights: After the Smoke Clears in Syria: Dilemmas for U.S. Strategy Remain
May 18, 2018 — Dr. Christopher J. Bolan In the wake of recent U.S. and Israeli military strikes, the potential for expanded U.S. military engagement in the Syrian civil war is growing and U.S. policymakers will need to plot a smart strategic course ahead. In doing so, they will need to conduct an honest appraisal of America’s interests in Syria and wrestle with... MORE

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Can Egypt Lead the Arab World Again? Assessing Opportunities and Challenges for U.S. Policy
May 26, 2017 — Author: Mr Gregory AftandilianView the Executive Summary This monograph examines the possibility of Egypt leading the Arab world again, and how that effort, if successful, will present opportunities and challenges for U.S. policy. At the present time, Egypt is not in a position to do so given its many domestic problems stemming from its turbulent... MORE

Underestimated: Our Not So Peaceful Nuclear Future
December 22, 2015 — Author: Mr Henry D SokolskiView the Executive Summary With the world focused on the nuclear crisis in Iran, it is tempting to think that addressing this case, North Korea, and the problem of nuclear terrorism is all that matters and is what matters most. Perhaps, but if states become more willing to use their nuclear weapons to achieve military... MORE

From Frozen Ties to Strategic Engagement: U.S.-Iranian Relationship in 2030
May 12, 2015 — Author: Mr Roman MuzalevskyView the Executive SummaryThe nuclear talks between Iran and P5+1 following the most stringent sanctions against Iran to date have opened new prospects for relaxation of tensions between Tehran and the West and for a U.S.-Iranian détente in the long run. The coming to power of new presidential administrations in both the... MORE

Prospects for Iran’s New Direction
February 20, 2015 — Author: Mr Keir Giles View the Executive SummaryThis monograph, completed ahead of the November 2014 deadline, examines some of the underlying factors which will be constant in dealing with a nuclear capable Iran under President Hassan Rouhani, and which will help determine the success or failure of talks in 2015. It analyzes Rouhani's eventful... MORE

Turkey’s New Regional Security Role: Implications for the United States
September 10, 2014 — Author: Dr Richard Weitz View the Executive SummaryUntil a few years ago, the relationship between Washington and Ankara was perennially troubled and occasionally terrible. Turkey opposed the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq and complained that the Pentagon was allowing Iraqi Kurds too much autonomy, leading to deteriorating security along the... MORE

Iran’s Emergence as a Cyber Power
August 20, 2014 — As international scrutiny remains focused on the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear program, a capability is developing in the shadows inside Iran that could pose an even greater threat to the United States. The 2010 National Security Strategy discusses Iran in the context of its nuclear program, support of terrorism, its influence in regional activities, and its internal problems. There was no mention of Iran’s cyber capability or of that ability to pose a threat to U.S. interests. This is understandable, considering Iran has not been a major concern in the cyber realm. Furthermore, Russia and China’s cyber activities have justifiably garnered a majority of attention and been widely reported in the media over the past decade. Iran’s cyber capabilities have been considered third-tier at best. That is rapidly changing. This report discusses the growing cyber capability of Iran and why it poses a new threat to U.S. national interests... MORE