Recent Publications

SSI Live 119 – On Venezuela
January 30, 2026 — This episode discusses Latin American reactions to the recent US operation in Venezuela, noting that some governments expressed criticism but with notable restraint due to domestic political and economic considerations. Dr. R. Evan Ellis explains that the operation exposed the ineffectiveness of Russian and Chinese air defense systems in Venezuela, which may influence future military procurement and perceptions of US capabilities in the region. The conversation also explores how China, Russia, Iran, and other extra hemispheric actors may recalibrate their engagement in Latin America in response to renewed U.S. focus and pressure... MORE

Slide for SSI Live Podcast – Ep 119 – On Venezuela

Book Review: Mission Iran: Special Forces Berlin & Operation Eagle Claw JTF 1-79
September 4, 2025 — Adding to the history of Operation Eagle Claw, the author includes primary sources, photos, and declassified documents to the story of the failed special operations forces rescue attempt and a second planned-but-never-executed rescue attempt. The reviewer calls this book “captivating” and of interest to “anyone interested in learning more about a lesser-known element of the Desert One mission.”... MORE

Cover for Mission Iran: Special Forces Berlin & Operation Eagle Claw JTF 1-79

Academic Year 2025–26 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment
July 9, 2025 — The United States faces a complex and ever-changing global environment. The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment is designed to guide the collective defense community to research and write about critical national security challenges to help the Army prepare for a wide range of potential conflicts and threats... MORE

Slide for the Academic Year 2025–26 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment

Security Implications for the United States from Iranian and Hezbollah Activities in Latin America
December 18, 2024 — This presentation will examine engagement with Latin America by Iran, its government agents, and surrogate groups such as Hezbollah, including terrorist finance, terrorism, and other activities and their evolution in recent years. It will address the interaction of that presence with the risk of escalating the conflict in the Middle East and weak... MORE

Security Implications for the United States from Iranian and Hezbollah Activities in Latin America | R. Evan Ellis
WEBINAR

Opidata #8: The BRICS Summit, China, and the Emerging Illiberal Counter-Order
November 14, 2024 — The 2024 BRICS summit in Kazan solidified an anti-liberal «counter-order,» challenging the rules-based international system. With its expansion to 23 members, the bloc, financially led by China, seeks to evade global restrictions and advance its agendas, though it faces coordination challenges and diverse objectives among its members. ... MORE

Opidata #8: The BRICS Summit, China, and the Emerging Illiberal Counter-Order | Dr. R. Evan Ellis

“Avoiding the Escalatory Trap: Managing Escalation During the Israel-Hamas War”
November 6, 2024 — In this episode, Dr. C. Anthony Pfaff, interim director of the Strategic Studies Institute at the US Army War College, discusses his work on managing escalation during the Israel-Hamas War. The conversation covers the complexities of Israel’s deterrence strategies, the proposed ceasefire, and the implications of Hamas’ potential power dynamics akin to Hezbollah. Pfaff highlights the delicate balance required in deterring Iranian support for Hamas and the importance ... MORE

Decisive Point Podcast 5-25 | C. Anthony Pfaff

Venezuela: The Path Forward
November 6, 2024 — Thanks to the courageous work of the Venezuelan opposition, including obtaining physical and photographic evidence of over 80% of the individual “acts” from Venezuela’s more than 30,000 polling places, the world generally knows that Edmundo Gonzalez received far more votes than Nicholas Maduro in the country’s July 28, 2024, Presidential election. Nonetheless, he is unlikely to successfully take control of the state apparatus that controls Venezuela’s territory on Inauguration Day, January 10, 2025. ... MORE

Venezuela: The Path Forward | R. Evan Ellis

The Monroe Doctrine, Then and Now
December 8, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis | In November 2013, then-Secretary of State John Kerry declared, to thunderous applause, that “the era of the Monroe Doctrine is over.” Flash forward to 2019 and John Bolton, the national security adviser at the time, proclaimed that the Monroe Doctrine was alive and well. Within six years, high-level administration officials had... MORE

The Monroe Doctrine, Then and Now - Evan Ellis - The Dispatch
Background image from article: https://thedispatch.com/article/the-monroe-doctrine-then-and-now/

Revisiting “Diverging Interests: US Strategy in the Middle East”
November 20, 2023 — The October 2023 attacks on Israel by Hamas are only the latest in a series of global crises with implications for the regional order in the Middle East. These changes and the diverging interests of actors in the region have implications for US strategy and provide an opportunity to rethink key US relationships there... MORE

Implications of the Israel-Hamas War for the Global Strategic Environment
November 7, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis | The unfolding war between Israel and the Hamas terrorist organization is like watching a slow-motion train wreck. Hamas’ unconscionable, extensively planned terror unleashed against Israel on October 7 has set in motion tragically predictable actions, likely to accelerate the fundamental transformation underway in the global... MORE

Implications of the Israel-Hamas War for the Global Strategic Environment
by R. Evan Ellis
https://www.indrastra.com/2023/11/implications-of-israel-hamas-war-for.html

Iran’s Re-engagement with Latin America
November 3, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis | The article presents the resumption of Iran’s relations with Latin America and the opportunities this offers for political and economic interaction. It highlights Iran’s acceptance into the BRICS during the organization’s summit in Johannesburg in 2023, which accelerated the reestablishment of Iran’s contacts with the international... MORE

Iran’ Re-engagement with Latin America
by R. Evan Ellis
https://revistas.ceeep.mil.pe/index.php/seguridad-y-poder-terrestre/article/view/43/81

2023 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment
August 24, 2023 — The United States operates within a global context that is increasingly complex, interconnected, and unpredictable. The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment serves as a guide to define broadly the contemporary security landscape and the diverse range of interests that shape our national security agenda... MORE

2023 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment
The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment serves as a guide for academics and practitioners in the defense community on the current challenges and opportunities in the strategic environment. This year’s publication outlines key strategic issues across the four broad themes of Regional Challenges and Opportunities, Domestic Challenges, Institutional Challenges, and Domains Impacting US Strategic Advantage. These themes represent a wide range of topics affecting national security and provide a global assessment of the strategic environment to help focus the defense community on research and publication. Strategic competition with the People’s Republic of China and the implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine remain dominant challenges to US national security interests across the globe. However, the evolving security environment also presents new and unconventional threats, such as cyberattacks, terrorism, transnational crime, and the implications of rapid technological advancements in fields such as artificial intelligence. At the same time, the US faces domestic and institutional challenges in the form of recruiting and retention shortfalls in the all-volunteer force, the prospect of contested logistics in large-scale combat operations, and the health of the US Defense Industrial Base. Furthermore, rapidly evolving security landscapes in the Arctic region and the space domain pose unique potential challenges to the Army’s strategic advantage.
https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/962/