Recent Publications

Security Implications for the United States from Iranian and Hezbollah Activities in Latin America
December 18, 2024 — This presentation will examine engagement with Latin America by Iran, its government agents, and surrogate groups such as Hezbollah, including terrorist finance, terrorism, and other activities and their evolution in recent years. It will address the interaction of that presence with the risk of escalating the conflict in the Middle East and weak... MORE

Security Implications for the United States from Iranian and Hezbollah Activities in Latin America | R. Evan Ellis
WEBINAR

Opidata #8: The BRICS Summit, China, and the Emerging Illiberal Counter-Order
November 14, 2024 — The 2024 BRICS summit in Kazan solidified an anti-liberal «counter-order,» challenging the rules-based international system. With its expansion to 23 members, the bloc, financially led by China, seeks to evade global restrictions and advance its agendas, though it faces coordination challenges and diverse objectives among its members. ... MORE

Opidata #8: The BRICS Summit, China, and the Emerging Illiberal Counter-Order | Dr. R. Evan Ellis

“Avoiding the Escalatory Trap: Managing Escalation During the Israel-Hamas War”
November 6, 2024 — In this episode, Dr. C. Anthony Pfaff, interim director of the Strategic Studies Institute at the US Army War College, discusses his work on managing escalation during the Israel-Hamas War. The conversation covers the complexities of Israel’s deterrence strategies, the proposed ceasefire, and the implications of Hamas’ potential power dynamics akin to Hezbollah. Pfaff highlights the delicate balance required in deterring Iranian support for Hamas and the importance ... MORE

Decisive Point Podcast 5-25 | C. Anthony Pfaff

Venezuela: The Path Forward
November 6, 2024 — Thanks to the courageous work of the Venezuelan opposition, including obtaining physical and photographic evidence of over 80% of the individual “acts” from Venezuela’s more than 30,000 polling places, the world generally knows that Edmundo Gonzalez received far more votes than Nicholas Maduro in the country’s July 28, 2024, Presidential election. Nonetheless, he is unlikely to successfully take control of the state apparatus that controls Venezuela’s territory on Inauguration Day, January 10, 2025. ... MORE

Venezuela: The Path Forward | R. Evan Ellis

The Monroe Doctrine, Then and Now
December 8, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis | In November 2013, then-Secretary of State John Kerry declared, to thunderous applause, that “the era of the Monroe Doctrine is over.” Flash forward to 2019 and John Bolton, the national security adviser at the time, proclaimed that the Monroe Doctrine was alive and well. Within six years, high-level administration officials had... MORE

The Monroe Doctrine, Then and Now - Evan Ellis - The Dispatch
Background image from article: https://thedispatch.com/article/the-monroe-doctrine-then-and-now/

Revisiting “Diverging Interests: US Strategy in the Middle East”
November 20, 2023 — The October 2023 attacks on Israel by Hamas are only the latest in a series of global crises with implications for the regional order in the Middle East. These changes and the diverging interests of actors in the region have implications for US strategy and provide an opportunity to rethink key US relationships there... MORE

Implications of the Israel-Hamas War for the Global Strategic Environment
November 7, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis | The unfolding war between Israel and the Hamas terrorist organization is like watching a slow-motion train wreck. Hamas’ unconscionable, extensively planned terror unleashed against Israel on October 7 has set in motion tragically predictable actions, likely to accelerate the fundamental transformation underway in the global... MORE

Implications of the Israel-Hamas War for the Global Strategic Environment
by R. Evan Ellis
https://www.indrastra.com/2023/11/implications-of-israel-hamas-war-for.html

Iran’s Re-engagement with Latin America
November 3, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis | The article presents the resumption of Iran’s relations with Latin America and the opportunities this offers for political and economic interaction. It highlights Iran’s acceptance into the BRICS during the organization’s summit in Johannesburg in 2023, which accelerated the reestablishment of Iran’s contacts with the international... MORE

Iran’ Re-engagement with Latin America
by R. Evan Ellis
https://revistas.ceeep.mil.pe/index.php/seguridad-y-poder-terrestre/article/view/43/81

Coercing Fluently: The Grammar of Coercion in the Twenty-first Century
October 31, 2022 — To illustrate the logic and grammar of coercion, this analysis relies on decision-theory methods, such as game theory, that examine the strategic decision-making process in interactions with adversaries and partners. The intent here is not to offer predictive models of rational-actor behavior. Rather, the intent is to use game theory and similar approaches to understand how coercion works better. This analysis considers competitive interactions between actors that have discrete and qualifiable, if not quantifiable, preferences and who behave rationally, though this analysis acknowledges the behavior that is considered rational is frequently informed by nonrational social, cultural, and psychological factors. Considering these competitive interactions allows one to identify “rules of thumb” that can orient and guide actors as they compete... MORE

A Hard Look at Hard Power: Assessing the Defense Capabilities of Key US Allies and Security Partners—Second Edition
October 30, 2020 — Mr. Gary J. Schmitt, 2020With the United States facing two major revisionist powers, Russia and China, as well as additional security threats from North Korea, Iran, and jihadist terrorism, a critical advantage for the United States is its global network of alliances and strategic partners. As the 2018 National Defense Strategy states, “Alliances... MORE

Cover for A Hard Look at Hard Power: Assessing the Defense Capabilities of Key US Allies and Security Partners—Second Edition

Grand Strategy is Attrition: The Logic of Integrating Various Forms of Power in Conflict
April 5, 2019 — Author: Dr Lukas MilevskiView the Executive Summary In this monograph, Dr. Lukas Milevski examines the logic of grand strategy in practice, defined by its most basic building block—combining military and non-military power in war. He lays out competing visions of how to define grand strategy and why the aforementioned building block is the most... MORE

Cover for Grand Strategy is Attrition: The Logic of Integrating Various Forms of Power in Conflict

Maneuvering the Saudi-Iranian Rivalry in the Middle East: How the United States Can Preserve and Protect Its Long-Term Interests in the Region
November 15, 2018 — Author: Mr Gregory AftandilianView the Executive SummaryThis monograph examines the conflicts in the Middle East region between Saudi Arabia and Iran and the so-called proxy wars that are being fought between them, and discusses ways that the United States needs to maneuver carefully in this struggle to preserve its long-term interests in the area... MORE

Cover for Maneuvering the Saudi-Iranian Rivalry in the Middle East: How the United States Can Preserve and Protect Its Long-Term Interests in the Region