Recent Publications

At Our Own Peril: DoD Risk Assessment in a Post-Primacy World
June 29, 2017 — Author: Mr Nathan P FreierView the Executive Summary The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) faces persistent fundamental change in its strategic and operating environments. This report suggests this reality is the product of the United States entering or being in the midst of a new, more competitive, post-U.S. primacy environment. Post-primacy... MORE

Corruption, Legitimacy, and Stability: Implications for the U.S. Army
June 6, 2017 — Author: Dr Shima D KeeneView the Executive Summary Corruption increases the level of instability and the risk of conflict by undermining the legitimacy and credibility of state institutions. It can be both a cause and effect of poor leadership and governance. States emerging from conflict are particularly vulnerable to corruption, due to the lack... MORE

2016-17 Key Strategic Issues List
July 1, 2016 — Editor: Prof John F TroxellThe United States faces security challenges within a global context of rapid technological change, significant demographic shifts, an uncertain economy, and geostrategic power dynamics of historic proportions. These conditions intensify the level of uncertainty and the pace of change, and raise the potential for... MORE

Cover for 2016-17 Key Strategic Issues List

Underestimated: Our Not So Peaceful Nuclear Future
December 22, 2015 — Author: Mr Henry D SokolskiView the Executive Summary With the world focused on the nuclear crisis in Iran, it is tempting to think that addressing this case, North Korea, and the problem of nuclear terrorism is all that matters and is what matters most. Perhaps, but if states become more willing to use their nuclear weapons to achieve military... MORE

Arab Threat Perceptions and the Future of the U.S. Military Presence in the Middle East
October 22, 2015 — Author: Dr W Andrew TerrillView the Executive Summary The threat perceptions of many Arab states aligned with the United States have changed significantly as a result of such dramatic events as the 2011 U.S. military withdrawal from Iraq, the emergence and then fading of the Arab Spring, the rise of Iranian power and Tehran’s nuclear agreement with... MORE

The Rise of iWar: Identity, Information, and the Individualization of Modern Warfare
October 16, 2015 — Author: COL Glenn J VoelzView the Executive Summary During a decade of global counterterrorism operations and two extended counterinsurgency campaigns, the United States was confronted with a new kind of adversary. Without uniforms, flags, and formations, the task of identifying and targeting these combatants represented an unprecedented... MORE

The Future Security Environment: Why the U.S. Army Must Differentiate and Grow Millennial Officer Talent
September 9, 2015 — Author: COL Michael J ArnoldView the Executive Summary The dynamic nature of the future security environment necessitates better retention of diversified talent among officers from the Millennial Generational Cohort. Although the U.S. Army has done well to attract a diverse and talented group of junior officers at commissioning, a revision of the... MORE

2015-16 Key Strategic Issues List
August 28, 2015 — Author: Prof John F Troxell The recently published National Military Strategy emphasizes the unpredictability of the global security environment. According to General Dempsey, “global disorder has significantly increased while some of our comparative military advantage has begun to erode. We now face multiple, simultaneous security challenges…”... MORE

The Chinese People’s Liberation Army in 2025
July 28, 2015 — Editors: Mr Roy Kamphausen, Dr David LaiView the Executive SummaryThis volume is of special relevance in light of the profound changes occurring within the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA). China’s desire to develop a military commensurate with its diverse interests is both legitimate and understandable. The challenge for U.S. Pacific Command... MORE

The Strategic Lessons Unlearned from Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan: Why the ANSF Will Not Hold, and the Implications for the U.S. Army in Afghanistan
June 25, 2015 — Author: Dr M Chris Mason View the Executive SummaryThe wars in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan were lost before they began, not on the battlefields, where the United States won every tactical engagement, but at the strategic level of war. In each case, the U.S. Government attempted to create a Western-style democracy in countries which were decades... MORE

From Cooperation to Competition: The Future of U.S.-Russian Relations
May 28, 2015 — Authors: COL Gregory K Anderson, LTC Karen LT Briggman, Dr John R Deni, LTC Joseph E Hilbert, COL Gert-Jan Kooij, LTC Christopher T Lay, Dr James C McNaughtonRussian aggression in 2014 caught U.S. policy and strategy off guard, forcing reactive measures and reevaluation of the U.S. approach toward Russia. Moscow employed nonlinear methodologies and... MORE

First Things First for Future Defense Strategy
May 27, 2015 — Mr. Nathan P. Freier, Ms. Laura McAleer The Department of Defense (DoD) will face a dramatic and sustained transition period over the next decade. At no other time in recent memory have American defense strategists faced such a dizzying and complex array of challenges like those which they will be required to direct their attention, energy, and... MORE