Recent Publications

China’s Future Military Capabilities
April 26, 2023 — The 2022 National Defense Strategy of the United States of America identifies China as the “pacing challenge” for the US military. This monograph examines the process by which China’s military capabilities are developed, the capabilities China’s military is seeking to acquire in the future, and the resulting implications for the US military. To... MORE

China’s Future Military Capabilities by Roger Cliff

Striking the Balance: US Army Force Posture in Europe, 2028—A Study Sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of the Army
June 24, 2020 — Authors: J.P. Clark and C. Anthony PfaffWithin the context of Europe, the US Army must develop a force posture that best navigates the tensions between deterring or defeating armed conflict at acceptable cost, successfully competing below armed conflict, and maintaining global responsiveness and institutional flexibility through the global... MORE

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Underestimated: Our Not So Peaceful Nuclear Future-Second Edition
August 22, 2018 — Author: Mr Henry D SokolskiUnderestimated: Our Not So Peaceful Nuclear Future, Second Edition explores what nuclear future we may face over the next three decades and how we currently think about this future. Will nuclear weapons spread in the next 20 years to more nations than just North Korea and possibly Iran? How dire will the consequences be?... MORE

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Friendly Force Dilemmas in Europe: Challenges Within and Among Intergovernmental Organizations and the Implications for the U.S. Army
May 23, 2018 — Authors: Jose Luis Calvo Albero, Jose De Meer Madrid, Kirk Gallinger, Klaus Klingenschmid, Angus McAfee, Stefano Messina, Markus Meyer, Michael Mineni, Darryl RuppAfter a period of stability, the transatlantic community is facing considerable challenges in maintaining European security. Russia’s efforts to destabilize Europe, terrorism, climate... MORE

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Robotics and Military Operations
May 22, 2018 — Editor: Prof William G Braun III, Kim Richard Nossal, Stéfanie von HlatkyIn the wake of two extended wars, Western militaries find themselves looking to the future while confronting amorphous nonstate threats and shrinking defense budgets. The 2015 Kingston Conference on International Security (KCIS) examined how robotics and autonomous systems... MORE

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The Land, Space, and Cyberspace Nexus: Evolution of the Oldest Military Operations in the Newest Military Domains
March 27, 2018 — Author: Mr Jeffrey L CatonOver the last century, the domains of air, space, and cyberspace have joined the traditional warfighting domains of land and sea. While the doctrine for land operations is relatively mature, the doctrine for space and cyberspace continue to evolve, often in an unstructured manner. This monograph examines the relationships... MORE

Strategic Insights: Challenges in Using Scenario Planning for Defense Strategy
January 30, 2018 — Dr. Michael FitzsimmonsLawrence Freedman and Colin Gray are two of the most famous contemporary scholars of military strategy. Within the past few years, each published a book addressing different aspects of the same practical problem of strategy: defense planning.1 Considered to be strategy’s mundane cousin, defense planning revolves around how a... MORE

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Closer Than You Think: The Implications of the Third Offset Strategy for the U.S. Army
October 26, 2017 — Editor: Mr Samuel R White JrView the Executive Summary The Defense Innovation Initiative (DII), begun in November 2014 by former Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel, is intended to ensure U.S. military superiority throughout the 21st century. The DII seeks broad-based innovation across the spectrum of concepts, research and development, capabilities,... MORE

Strategic Landscape, 2050: Preparing the U.S. Military for New Era Dynamics
September 14, 2017 — Author: Mr Roman MuzalevskyView the Executive Summary A series of megatrends will present a major challenge to the United States in the coming decades, exposing it to crises and opportunities on the battlefield and in the market. The U.S. military should stand ready to harness these dynamics to retain its edge in an operational environment marked... MORE

At Our Own Peril: DoD Risk Assessment in a Post-Primacy World
June 29, 2017 — Author: Mr Nathan P FreierView the Executive Summary The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) faces persistent fundamental change in its strategic and operating environments. This report suggests this reality is the product of the United States entering or being in the midst of a new, more competitive, post-U.S. primacy environment. Post-primacy... MORE

Corruption, Legitimacy, and Stability: Implications for the U.S. Army
June 6, 2017 — Author: Dr Shima D KeeneView the Executive Summary Corruption increases the level of instability and the risk of conflict by undermining the legitimacy and credibility of state institutions. It can be both a cause and effect of poor leadership and governance. States emerging from conflict are particularly vulnerable to corruption, due to the lack... MORE

2016-17 Key Strategic Issues List
July 1, 2016 — Editor: Prof John F TroxellThe United States faces security challenges within a global context of rapid technological change, significant demographic shifts, an uncertain economy, and geostrategic power dynamics of historic proportions. These conditions intensify the level of uncertainty and the pace of change, and raise the potential for... MORE

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