Recent Publications

2024 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment
July 24, 2024 — The United States faces a complex and ever-changing global environment. The 2024 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment is designed to guide the collective defense community to research and write about critical national security challenges to help the Army prepare for a wide range of potential conflicts and threats... MORE

The 2024 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment sets the foundation for cutting-edge research to understand the ever-evolving security environment domestically and internationally.

Cyber Intelligence: Actors, Policies, and Practices
August 29, 2023 — Technology and War Book Review: Cyber Intelligence: Actors, Policies, and Practices Author: Constance S. Uthoff | Reviewed by Dr. Robert J. Bunker, director of research and analysis, managing partner, C/O Futures LLC | From intelligence cycles and processes to intelligence agencies, security challenges, and more, Cyber Intelligence: Actors,... MORE

Book Review by Robert J. Bunker: How Civil Wars Start and How to Stop Them

Author: Barbara F. Walter

Reviewed by Dr. Robert J. Bunker, director of research and analysis, managing partner, C/O Futures LLC

How Civil Wars Start and How to Stop Them was written to acquaint readers with “the conditions that give rise to, and define, modern civil war” to “[understand how] close modern America is to erupting into conflict” (xviii). The reviewer notes, “American military officers, sworn government agents, and officials will find the work troubling” and praises its “nonpartisan exploration and objective analysis” in tackling a difficult topic.

2023 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment
August 24, 2023 — The United States operates within a global context that is increasingly complex, interconnected, and unpredictable. The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment serves as a guide to define broadly the contemporary security landscape and the diverse range of interests that shape our national security agenda... MORE

2023 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment
The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment serves as a guide for academics and practitioners in the defense community on the current challenges and opportunities in the strategic environment. This year’s publication outlines key strategic issues across the four broad themes of Regional Challenges and Opportunities, Domestic Challenges, Institutional Challenges, and Domains Impacting US Strategic Advantage. These themes represent a wide range of topics affecting national security and provide a global assessment of the strategic environment to help focus the defense community on research and publication. Strategic competition with the People’s Republic of China and the implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine remain dominant challenges to US national security interests across the globe. However, the evolving security environment also presents new and unconventional threats, such as cyberattacks, terrorism, transnational crime, and the implications of rapid technological advancements in fields such as artificial intelligence. At the same time, the US faces domestic and institutional challenges in the form of recruiting and retention shortfalls in the all-volunteer force, the prospect of contested logistics in large-scale combat operations, and the health of the US Defense Industrial Base. Furthermore, rapidly evolving security landscapes in the Arctic region and the space domain pose unique potential challenges to the Army’s strategic advantage.
https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/962/

On “Countering Terrorism on Tomorrow’s Battlefield and Critical Infrastructure Security and Resiliency”
May 10, 2023 — In this episode of Conversations on Strategy, Lucas Cox shares his thoughts on being an intern working on two collaborative studies for NATO. ... MORE

“NATO Space Critical Infrastructure” from Countering Terrorism on Tomorrow’s Battlefield (NATO COE-DAT Handbook 2)
February 27, 2023 — Every day, malicious actors target emerging technologies and medical resilience or seek to wreak havoc in the wake of disasters brought on by climate change, energy insecurity, and supply-chain disruptions. Countering Terrorism on Tomorrow’s Battlefield is a handbook on how to strengthen critical infrastructure resilience in an era of emerging threats. The counterterrorism research produced for this volume is in alignment... MORE

Countering Terrorism on Tomorrow’s Battlefield (NATO COE-DAT Handbook 2)
February 23, 2023 — Conversations on Strategy, Conversations on Strategy Podcast, Dr. Sarah J. Lohmann... MORE

“Comparing Policy Frameworks - CISR in the United States and the European Union” from Enabling NATO’s Collective Defense CISR (NATO COE-DAT Handbook 1)
February 3, 2023 — adetail.news .article-body { max-width: 90% !important; }For over a quarter century the United States and the European Union have been diligently planning and implementing policies and procedures to protect the critical infrastructure sectors that are vital to the prosperity and security the majority of their citizens enjoy. Given the evolving... MORE

“Water Sector Resilience in the Metropolitan Washington Case” from Enabling NATO’s Collective Defense CISR (NATO COE-DAT Handbook 1)
January 31, 2023 — In most urbanized societies, water is taken for granted and little thought is given to how fragile the supply of this vital resource can be. A water emergency, however, such as a treatment plant outage, a water source contamination event, or natural disaster has the potential for significant disruption to society and the infrastructure that depends on water to function. Most other sectors of critical infrastructure... MORE

“Communications Resilience” from Enabling NATO’s Collective Defense CISR (NATO COE-DAT Handbook 1)
January 27, 2023 — Communications form the critical backbone of the modern world, connecting more people and more devices more completely than ever before. The benefits of this hyper-connected society drive ever-increasing reliance on secure, reliable, and resilient communications. Potential adversaries to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization certainly understand the importance of communications—those they seek to target and those they use themselves—so it is critical to fully understand the sector, the risks it faces, and the best ways to mitigate those risks. ... MORE

“Understanding Critical Infrastructure” from Enabling NATO’s Collective Defense CISR (NATO COE-DAT Handbook 1)
January 6, 2023 — This podcast based on Chapter 1 in Enabling NATO’s Collective Defense: Critical Infrastructure Security and Resiliency (NATO COE-DAT Handbook 1 answers the questions: What is critical infrastructure? Why is it important? What is the difference between critical infrastructure protection (CIP) and critical infrastructure security and resilience (CISR)? What are some of the key terms defined in national CISR policy?... MORE

Enabling NATO’s Collective Defense CISR (NATO COE-DAT Handbook 1)
December 19, 2022 — In 2014 NATO’s Centre of Excellence-Defence Against Terrorism (COE-DAT) launched the inaugural course on “Critical Infrastructure Protection Against Terrorist Attacks.” As this course garnered increased attendance and interest, the core lecturer team felt the need to update the course in critical infrastructure (CI) taking into account the shift from an emphasis on “protection” of CI assets to “security and resiliency.” What was lacking... MORE

Enabling NATO’s Collective Defense
December 13, 2022 — In 2014 NATO’s Centre of Excellence-Defence Against Terrorism (COE-DAT) launched the inaugural course on “Critical Infrastructure Protection Against Terrorist Attacks.” As this course garnered increased attendance and interest, the core lecturer team felt the need to update the course in critical infrastructure (CI) taking into account the shift from an emphasis on “protection” of CI assets to “security and resiliency.”... MORE

Enabling NATO’s Collective Defense:
Critical Infrastructure Security and Resiliency (NATO COE-DAT Handbook 1)