Recent Publications

Bolivia’s Descent into Deep Chaos and the Implications for the Region
November 22, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis | The resource rich, land-locked South American nation of Bolivia has traditionally received limited attention from Washington. The country, historically mired in poverty, corruption, and cycles of political conflict is one of the hemisphere’s major sources for coca and illegally mined gold, as well as a transit country for both... MORE

The resource rich, land-locked South American nation of Bolivia has traditionally received limited attention from Washington. The country, historically mired in poverty, corruption, and cycles of political conflict is one of the hemisphere’s major sources for coca and illegally mined gold, as well as a transit country for both. Bolivia’s leftist populist Movement for Socialism (MAS) governments of Evo Morales and Luis Arce have made the country an important point of entry into the hemisphere for extra-hemispheric U.S. rivals including the People’s Republic of China, Russia, and Iran.
In recent weeks, a power struggle has emerged for control of the MAS between current President Luis Arce and former President Evo Morales. This has implications for the stability of the country as it plays out in the context of crosscutting political rivalries, economic difficulties, and a significant criminal economy with competing interests. This work examines the deteriorating situation in Bolivia and the potential implications for the region.
Image adapted from:
https://theglobalamericans.org/2023/11/bolivias-descent-into-deep-chaos-and-the-implications-for-the-region/

PacNet #49 – China’s military engagements with Cuba: Implications of a strategic advance in Latin America
July 30, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis In June 2023, The Wall Street Journal reported that the People’s Republic of China has heavily invested in a cash-strapped Cuba in exchange for access to an electronic intelligence collection (ELINT) facility, and negotiated an agreement to train Chinese soldiers on the north side of the island. These developments have been met with... MORE

Brazil and the Illiberal Anti-U.S. Alliance
June 20, 2023 — R. Evan EllisDuring World War II, Brazil contributed to the security of allied trans-Atlantic shipping routes and sent a division-sized expeditionary force to Italy to help liberate Europe from Hitler and Mussolini’s murderous dictatorships. In 1985, Brazilians rallied around Tancredo Neves and José Sarney to end undemocratic military rule... MORE

Brazil and the Illiberal Anti-U.S. Alliance
Jun 20, 2023 | China, R. Evan Ellis, South & Latin America, SSI Worldwide

The Advance of China and Authoritarian Populism in Honduras
June 9, 2023 — R. Evan EllisIn Latin America, it is strategically important that the United States distinguish between principled left-oriented democratic regimes versus those which seek to manage the alarm of Washington and Western investors as they pursue a fundamentally anti-democratic, anti-market, anti-U.S. course. It is time for Washington to recognize that... MORE

The Advance of China and Authoritarian Populism in Honduras
R. Evan Ellis

Panama’s Popular Discontent Is Still Simmering
May 27, 2023 — R. Evan EllisWith roughly a year to go before Panama’s next general election scheduled for May 2024, Panamanians are broadly frustrated with the country’s current conditions. During a weeklong visit last month, government officials, academics and others I spoke with expressed concerns over insecurity, the economy, corruption and the stalled... MORE

Panama’s Popular Discontent Is Still Simmering
R. Evan Ellis

PRC Engagement in Costa Rica (on CEEP)
May 18, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis Although Costa Rica was the first nation in Latin America to switch relations from Taiwan to the People’s Republic of China (PRC), it stands as a lesson to others that the promise of vast economic and other benefits from diplomatically recognizing China, and the reality, are very different... MORE

PRC Engagement in Costa Rica (on CEEP)
R. Evan Ellis

Lessons from Russia’s Latin America engagement over Ukraine
May 9, 2022 — Dr. R. Evan Ellis, 2022 Russia’s engagement with Latin America after its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, and the Latin American response to the invasion, illustrates the growing strategic challenge to the U.S. from the survival and proliferation of populist authoritarian regimes in the Western Hemisphere. It also hints at opportunities for Russian... MORE