Recent Publications

Exploring Strategic Culture
October 23, 2024 — This episode delves into the concept of strategic culture and how it influences international relations, military strategy, and deterrence, particularly between the United States, China, and Russia. Dr. Scobell and Dr. Kuznar share insights from their extensive research and highlight the nuances of strategic culture in peacetime, crisis, and conflict scenarios. ... MORE

On "War with China: A View from Early 2024"
July 2, 2024 — Episode 12 of CLSC Dialogues: In 2012, the late diplomat and RAND Corporation Senior Fellow James Dobbins wrote an article titled “War with China,” which was published in the journal Survival. The article asserted that there were several potential cases for conflict with China, including North Korea’s collapse and an unrestrained Sino-Indian border war. ... ... MORE

“Taiwan’s Contribution to Liberal Order and the Future of US-Taiwan Relations”
June 13, 2024 — Strengthening ties with Taiwan is the best chance the United States has to preserve the liberal international order in Asia and improve its security relative to China. This study offers a normative perspective on how Taiwan can contribute to US-led international institutions and the Asian regional order and reduce conflict risk. It concludes with recommendations for the United States and its partners to integrate Taiwan... MORE

Deterrence Gap: Avoiding War in the Taiwan Strait (Part 2)
April 24, 2024 — The likelihood China will attack Taiwan in the next decade is high and will continue to be so, unless Taipei and Washington take urgent steps to restore deterrence across the Taiwan Strait. This monograph introduces the concept of interlocking deterrents, explains why deterrents lose their potency with the passage of time, and provides concrete recommendations ... MORE

War with China: A View from Early 2024
April 11, 2024 — US defense analysts are overdue for a fundamental reassessment of the strategic factors that would shape a future Sino-American war. The United States may lower the overall risk of sparking a war between Washington and Beijing by more formally committing advanced US capabilities in intelligence collection and targeting, long-range fires, and theater air and missile defense to Japan and South Korea and by initiating bilateral planning to introduce such capabilities in Taiwan in the future. The US defense community still lacks a broad and integrated national strategy for successfully managing the rivalry with China. A clear-eyed assessment of a possible United States-China war could lead to a national strategy... MORE

Thumbnail - War with China: A View from Early 2024

Deterrence Gap: Avoiding War in the Taiwan Strait - Part 1
April 11, 2024 — The likelihood China will attack Taiwan in the next decade is high and will continue to be so, unless Taipei and Washington take urgent steps to restore deterrence across the Taiwan Strait. This monograph introduces the concept of interlocking deterrents, explains why deterrents lose their potency with the passage of time, and provides concrete recommendations for how Taiwan... MORE

On China’s Global Impact
March 27, 2024 — In this episode, Dr. Luke P. Bellocchi, Major Jamie Critelli, and Captain Gustavo Ferreira address strategic concerns the United States should consider when evaluating the current Asia-Pacific environment, including Taiwan’s potential food insecurity should China invade or blockade Taiwan, China’s supply of rare-earth elements and how a conflict with China might... MORE

Parameters | Spring 2024
March 7, 2024 — The Spring issue is out! In this edition: “Ukraine: A Case for Urgency” by Anthony L. Tingle and Rebecca W. Jensen and “Strategic Art for Sanctions” by David Katz; SRAD DIRECTOR’S CORNER “Emerging Technologies and Terrorism: A Report from NATO's COE-DAT”; For the latest on the Indo-Pacific, Strategic Thinking, the Middle East, and even the US Civil War check out the new issue... MORE

"Introduction to the China Landpower Studies Center"
February 15, 2024 — The China Landpower Studies Center will open in 2024. It is intended to be an approachable organization. It will tackle the complex and pressing questions about China’s emergence as a global power and its implications for the US military and provide senior leaders and practitioners with a better understanding of the strategies, capabilities, and the integration of the PLA into the CCP’s campaign to turn... MORE

On “The Strategic Importance of Taiwan to the United States and Its Allies”
January 23, 2024 — Taiwan has become increasingly important to the United States and its allies as the Russia-Ukraine War has united democracies against authoritarian expansionism and has developed an international democracy-authoritarianism dynamic in global affairs. Part one of this article clearly outlined the geopolitical, economic, and soft-power reasons why Taiwan is strategically... MORE

Assessing the Outcome of Taiwan's Presidential Election | 2024 Elections to Watch
January 18, 2024 — On January 13 Taiwanese voters headed to the polls, where they elected William Lai to serve as president. Carnegie Asia Program non-resident scholar Sheena Greitens breaks down the results of the election and the various issues at play.Watch on YouTube MORE

On January 13 Taiwanese voters headed to the polls, where they elected William Lai to serve as president.

Carnegie Asia Program non-resident scholar Sheena Greitens breaks down the results of the election and the various issues at play.

Deterrence Gap: Avoiding War in the Taiwan Strait
January 5, 2024 — Jared M. McKinney and Peter Harris | The likelihood China will attack Taiwan in the next decade is high and will continue to be so, unless Taipei and Washington take urgent steps to restore deterrence across the Taiwan Strait. This monograph introduces the concept of interlocking deterrents, explains why deterrents lose their potency with the... MORE

The likelihood China will attack Taiwan in the next decade is high and will continue to be so, unless Taipei and Washington take urgent steps to restore deterrence across the Taiwan Strait. This monograph introduces the concept of interlocking deterrents, explains why deterrents lose their potency with the passage of time, and provides concrete recommendations for how Taiwan, the United States, and other regional powers can develop multiple, interlocking deterrents that will ensure Taiwanese security in the short and longer terms. By joining deterrence theory with an empirical analysis of Taiwanese, Chinese, and US policies, the monograph provides US military and policy practitioners new insights into ways to deter the People’s Republic of China from invading Taiwan without relying exclusively on the threat of great-power war.
Jared M. McKinney and Peter Harris
Keywords
Taiwan, China, deterrence, cross-strait relations, Indo-Pacific, East Asia, US foreign policy, international security

Disciplines
Defense and Security Studies

https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/964