Recent Publications

From the Last Frontier to the Final Frontier: The Polar Regions and Space Security
August 25, 2025 — This article examines the intersection of Arctic geopolitics and space security amid intensifying U.S., Russian, and Chinese competition. Melting ice has opened access to resources and new sea routes, elevating the Arctic’s strategic value while increasing reliance on space-based communications, navigation, and surveillance. Yet, vulnerabilities in... MORE

Slide for From the Last Frontier to the Final Frontier: The Polar Regions and Space Security

The Economic Argument for Keeping US Forces in Europe
August 15, 2025 — NATO’s Hague summit earlier this summer has generally been viewed as a qualified success, despite — or perhaps because of — its unusually short and focused agenda. The new 5 percent defense spending commitment deserves most of the credit for this perception, but there’s no escaping the conclusion that the lack of major disruptions also explains why... MORE

Slide for The Economic Argument for Keeping US Forces in Europe

Ecuador’s Incoming Government Faces Difficult Choices Regarding China
May 8, 2025 — With Daniel Noboa returning to the presidency and a new Chinese ambassador on the way, China-Ecuador relations are at an inflection point.From April 22-25, I had the opportunity to travel to Quito, Ecuador, to address an international forum on China and Latin America, held by the prestigious San Francisco of Quito University and FLACSO Ecuador. My... MORE

Ecuador’s Incoming Government Faces Difficult Choices Regarding China | R. Evan Ellis

China’s Coming Diplomatic Blitz in the Americas
May 8, 2025 — The next few months will bring a series of high-profile multilateral engagements between China and Latin American countries, as Beijing seeks to capitalize on discontent with Trump.In the coming three months, China will have a number of opportunities to advance its multilateral engagement with the Americas, leveraging discontent among many... MORE

China’s Coming Diplomatic Blitz in the Americas | R. Evan Ellis

Transnational Organized Crime in Mexico and the Government’s Response
April 29, 2025 — The US government threats of tariffs on the Mexican government if it did not do more to control illicit fentanyl flows into the United States have cast new attention on the growing problem of transnational organized crime that has wrought violence and corruption at all levels in Mexico. This work, based on the authors research in interviews with... MORE

Transnational Organized Crime in Mexico and the Government’s Response | R. Evan Ellis

Russia's the Enemy
April 21, 2025 — The United States has never been directly involved in the war in Ukraine. U.S. troops weren’t sent there to fight for Ukraine against the Russian invaders, and both sides of our political spectrum seemed intent on keeping it that way. Russia remained in American foreign policy a challenge to be managed and a competitor, even an adversary.Through... MORE

Russia, Ukraine, and Collective Defence
April 21, 2025 — The ability to adapt to a constantly evolving security environment has been critical to the success of NATO, yet this is being tested anew as the Alliance faces a second term of Donald Trump in the White House and re-embraces collective defence in light of Russia’s war on Ukraine. Despite notable solidarity and unity in the immediate aftermath of... MORE

Russia, Ukraine, and Collective Defence | Dr. John R. Deni & Anca Agachi

Does NATO Still Matter?
April 21, 2025 — The alliance has created economic growth, peace and stability. America’s relationship with Europe is undergoing a potentially profound reexamination. Whether and how the transatlantic bond — especially America’s commitment to NATO — will endure has become an open question.To some degree, reassessment makes sense. The NATO agreement was penned over... MORE

Does NATO still matter? | Dr. John R. Deni

Don’t waste this crisis, Europe: consolidate your defense industry
April 15, 2025 — Turn your excess national defense champions into continental ones.Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine and questions about the American commitment to NATO have cast a spotlight on European efforts to safeguard security on the continent. But today, the major hurdles confronting Europe are no longer defense spending and industrial capacity. At both the... MORE

Don’t waste this crisis, Europe: consolidate your defense industry | Dr. John R. Deni

A Drawdown of US Forces in Europe Is All but Certain
April 15, 2025 — Here’s how the Pentagon can rebalance its approach to the continent without sacrificing US interests.The Trump administration has only just begun to fill its ranks with the political appointees who will flesh out the future of US defense policy. One item sure to be on their agenda is a review of US military deployments around the world, known in... MORE

A Drawdown of U.S. Forces in Europe Is All but Certain | John R. Deni

Ecuador’s Security Challenges and the Government’s Response
February 11, 2025 — In January 2024, following a series of dramatic public security incidents, including the escape from prison of Adolfo Macias (“Fito”), the leader of the violent Ecuadoran gang Los Choneros, and the takeover of an Ecuadoran Television station during a live broadcast, the newly elected government of Daniel Noboa declared a “state of internal warfare”... MORE

Ecuador’s Security Challenges and the Government’s Response | R. Evan Ellis

8 Simmering Threats You Shouldn’t Ignore in 2025: A Plausibly Deniable Russian War Against Europe
January 2, 2025 — The sabotage of undersea communications cables in the Baltic Sea by the cargo ship Yi Peng 3 is only the latest in a series of asymmetric attacks against Western interests and infrastructure that appear to be connected in one way or another to Moscow. The Kremlin has clearly ratcheted up efforts to intimidate and coerce Europe, hoping to... MORE

A Plausibly Deniable Russian War Against Europe | John R. Deni, in Foreign Policy