Recent Publications

Strategic Implications of the Deterioration of the Rules-Based International Order
February 2, 2024 — The multiple crises currently playing out in Ukraine, the Middle East, the Taiwan straits, and even Guyana’s Essequibo region, reflect a deterioration of the rules-based international order that has served as the foundation for economic growth, technological progress, and the limitation of interstate conflict since the end of the Second World War... MORE

Strategic Implications of the Deterioration of the Rules-Based International Order | R. Evan Ellis

Perspectives on Ecuador: The Sky Isn’t Falling
January 22, 2024 — The takeover of Ecuadorian TV station TC in the middle of a widely watched news broadcast, Ecuadoran President Daniel Noboa’s declaration of a state of internal armed conflict, and his deployment of the military as part of the response dominated international news and captured the attention of Washington policymakers last week. Ecuador’s homicide... MORE

Perspectives on Ecuador: The Sky Isn’t Falling | R. Evan Ellis
Background image from United Press International via Global Americans Article (https://theglobalamericans.org/perspectives-on-ecuador-the-sky-isnt-falling)

China’s Growing Strategic Position in Nicaragua
December 21, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis | The October 2023 announcement of multiple major infrastructure projects to be performed by Chinese companies in Nicaragua highlights China’s deepening strategic position in that country, with significant implications for the United States and the region. Nicaragua’s December 2021 recognition of China and its corresponding... MORE

China’s Growing Strategic Position in Nicaragua – R. Evan Ellis in The Diplomat
https://thediplomat.com/2023/12/chinas-growing-strategic-position-in-nicaragua/

The Monroe Doctrine, Then and Now
December 8, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis | In November 2013, then-Secretary of State John Kerry declared, to thunderous applause, that “the era of the Monroe Doctrine is over.” Flash forward to 2019 and John Bolton, the national security adviser at the time, proclaimed that the Monroe Doctrine was alive and well. Within six years, high-level administration officials had... MORE

The Monroe Doctrine, Then and Now - Evan Ellis - The Dispatch
Background image from article: https://thedispatch.com/article/the-monroe-doctrine-then-and-now/

Bolivia’s Descent into Deep Chaos and the Implications for the Region
November 22, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis | The resource rich, land-locked South American nation of Bolivia has traditionally received limited attention from Washington. The country, historically mired in poverty, corruption, and cycles of political conflict is one of the hemisphere’s major sources for coca and illegally mined gold, as well as a transit country for both... MORE

The resource rich, land-locked South American nation of Bolivia has traditionally received limited attention from Washington. The country, historically mired in poverty, corruption, and cycles of political conflict is one of the hemisphere’s major sources for coca and illegally mined gold, as well as a transit country for both. Bolivia’s leftist populist Movement for Socialism (MAS) governments of Evo Morales and Luis Arce have made the country an important point of entry into the hemisphere for extra-hemispheric U.S. rivals including the People’s Republic of China, Russia, and Iran.
In recent weeks, a power struggle has emerged for control of the MAS between current President Luis Arce and former President Evo Morales. This has implications for the stability of the country as it plays out in the context of crosscutting political rivalries, economic difficulties, and a significant criminal economy with competing interests. This work examines the deteriorating situation in Bolivia and the potential implications for the region.
Image adapted from:
https://theglobalamericans.org/2023/11/bolivias-descent-into-deep-chaos-and-the-implications-for-the-region/

Implications of the Israel-Hamas War for the Global Strategic Environment
November 7, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis | The unfolding war between Israel and the Hamas terrorist organization is like watching a slow-motion train wreck. Hamas’ unconscionable, extensively planned terror unleashed against Israel on October 7 has set in motion tragically predictable actions, likely to accelerate the fundamental transformation underway in the global... MORE

Implications of the Israel-Hamas War for the Global Strategic Environment
by R. Evan Ellis
https://www.indrastra.com/2023/11/implications-of-israel-hamas-war-for.html

Iran’s Re-engagement with Latin America
November 3, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis | The article presents the resumption of Iran’s relations with Latin America and the opportunities this offers for political and economic interaction. It highlights Iran’s acceptance into the BRICS during the organization’s summit in Johannesburg in 2023, which accelerated the reestablishment of Iran’s contacts with the international... MORE

Iran’ Re-engagement with Latin America
by R. Evan Ellis
https://revistas.ceeep.mil.pe/index.php/seguridad-y-poder-terrestre/article/view/43/81

Comparing China’s Engagement in Africa and Latin America
October 21, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis | There are substantial commonalities in Beijing’s engagement between the two regions, but also differences that provide insights into how China-based entities make, and adapt, policies. On October 12-13, 2023, the Jack D. Gordon Institute of Florida International University (FIU) hosted an event bringing together Africa and Latin... MORE

Comparing China’s Engagement in Africa and Latin America
R. Evan Ellis
There are substantial commonalities in Beijing’s engagement between the two regions, but also differences that provide insights into how China-based entities make, and adapt, policies.
https://thediplomat.com/2023/10/comparing-chinas-engagement-in-africa-and-latin-america/

Image credits: Chinese flag from Pexels.com, world map overlay from FreePik.com

Security Challenges Facing the Dominican Republic and the Government Response
October 18, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis | From September 24-28, 2023, a trip was made to Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, to present a paper on crime and violence in the Caribbean at a forum organized by Funglode,[2] one of the country’s leading think tanks. As part of this visit, he held a dialogue with a wide range of former and current security personnel and other... MORE

Security Challenges Facing the Dominican Republic and the Government Response
R. Evan Ellis
ntroduction
From September 24-28, 2023, a trip was made to Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, to present a paper on crime and violence in the Caribbean at a forum organized by Funglode,[2] one of the country’s leading think tanks. As part of this visit, he held a dialogue with a wide range of former and current security personnel and other experts on the security challenges facing the nation.

The Dominican Republic’s economy, closely linked to that of the United States (U.S.) through geography, family ties and the Central America-Dominican Republic Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA-DR),[3] is one of the fastest growing in the region.[4] Despite the devastating impact of the COVID-19 pandemic,[5] tourism has recovered remarkably. The country has a vibrant democratic political culture and, unlike many of its Caribbean and Central American neighbors with whom it shares close linguistic and cultural ties, has managed to maintain significantly lower levels of violence and gang activity.

(https://ceeep.mil.pe/2023/10/18/retos-de-seguridad-a-los-que-se-enfrenta-la-republica-dominicana-y-la-respuesta-del-gobierno/?lang=en)

Background image credit: CEEP

The Impact of the Turn to the Left on the Advance of the People’s Republic of China in Latin
October 5, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis | This work uses the comparative method, complemented by quantitative data, to examine engagement by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in Latin America as a function of government type, across a range of activities, including trade, investment, infrastructure projects, security relations, and technical architectures over the past... MORE

R. Evan Ellis
This work uses the comparative method, complemented by quantitative data, to examine engagement by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in Latin America as a function of government type, across a range of activities, including trade, investment, infrastructure projects, security relations, and technical architectures over the past two decades. The findings indicate that the PRC establishes distinct and often broader forms of engagement with populist, anti-US governments, although this does not necessarily translate into a higher volume of PRC investment or overall trade with those governments. This is the first major work in the growing China–Latin America literature to explicitly analyze the dynamics of PRC engagement across regime type. It contributes to strategic analysis of the PRC challenge in the region by the operational force, including the identification of risks, and the formulation of responses, including credible messaging, in support of a coordinated whole-of-government response to the PRC challenge.

Read now: The Impact of the Turn to the Left on the Advance of the People’s Republic of China in Latin

Image adapted from FreePik (https://www.freepik.com/free-vector/coronavirus-map_7456298.htm)

Fernando Villavicencio and the Self-Destructive Collaboration between China and Populist Regimes
August 15, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis Mexico’s relationship with China has always been complicated. Although Chinese migrants formed an important part in Mexico’s national story, the perceived “otherness” of the Chinese community and competition for work led to occasional violence against ethnic Chinese. With the contemporary expansion of the PRC economy, the position of... MORE

Fernando Villavicencio and the Self-Destructive Collaboration between China and Populist Regimes
R. Evan Ellis

Mexico’s Engagement with China and Choices for its Future
August 11, 2023 — R. Evan EllisAs Mexico looks to national elections in June 2024, the expanding engagement that the country is backing into with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) will have profound implications for the country’s future, as well as the United States and the rest of the region.BackgroundMexico’s relationship with China has always been complicated... MORE