Recent Publications

The Future of American Landpower: Does Forward Presence Still Matter? The Case of the Army in the Pacific
June 1, 2014 — Author: Dr John R Deni View the Executive SummaryThe time has come for a reappraisal of the U.S. Army’s forward presence in East Asia, given the evolving strategic context and the extraordinarily high, recurring costs of deploying U.S. Army forces from the 50 states for increasingly important security cooperation activities across the... MORE

From War to Deterrence? Israel-Hezbollah Conflict Since 2006
May 1, 2014 — Author: Dr Jean-Loup Samaan View the Executive SummaryOver the last 7 years, the border between Israel and Lebanon has remained quiet. Against all odds, in a Middle East experiencing tremendous challenges, Israel and Hezbollah did not trigger a new conflict. To understand this paradox, the monograph explores the mechanisms of deterrence in the... MORE

Escalation and Intrawar Deterrence During Limited Wars in the Middle East
September 1, 2009 — Author: Dr W Andrew Terrill A central purpose of this monograph is to reexamine two earlier conflicts for insights that may be relevant for ongoing dangers during limited wars involving nations possessing chemical or biological weapons or emerging nuclear arsenals. These conflicts are the 1973 Arab-Israeli War and the 1991 Gulf War. Both of these... MORE

Japan’s Decision for War in 1941: Some Enduring Lessons
February 1, 2009 — Author: Dr Jeffrey Record The author takes a fresh look at Japan’s decision for war in 1941, and concludes that it was dictated by Japanese pride and the threatened economic destruction of Japan by the United States. He believes that Japanese aggression in East Asia was the root cause of the Pacific War, but argues that the road to war in 1941 was... MORE

Deterrence, Missile Defense, and Collateral Damage in the Iranian-Israeli Strategic Relationship
February 1, 2008 — Author: Dr W Andrew Terrill Each month a member of the SSI faculty writes an editorial for our monthly newsletter. This is the Op-Ed for the February 2008 newsletter.Read Now MORE

Cover for Deterrence, Missile Defense, and Collateral Damage in the Iranian-Israeli Strategic Relationship

Force and Restraint in Strategic Deterrence: A Game-Theorist’s Perspective
November 1, 2007 — Author: Dr Roger B Myerson A great power’s use of its military forces may be rendered ineffective or even counterproductive when there are no clear internationally recognizable limits on this use of force. Professor Myerson derives this conclusion from the basic observation that our ability to influence potential rivals depends on a balanced mix of... MORE

Preventive War and Its Alternatives: The Lessons of History
April 1, 2006 — Author: Dr Dan Reiter The 2002 National Security Strategy suggested preventive attacks, diplomacy, deterrence, and other policies as means of curtailing threats presented by the spread of nuclear, biological, and chemical (NBC) weapons to terrorists and rogue states. The author analyzes which mix of these policies might best and most cost... MORE

Getting Ready for a Nuclear-Ready Iran
November 1, 2005 — Authors: Mr Patrick Clawson, Mr Henry D Sokolski As Iran edges closer to acquiring a nuclear bomb and its missiles extend an ever darker diplomatic shadow over the Middle East and Europe, Iran is likely to pose three threats. First, Iran could dramatically up the price of oil by interfering with the free passage of vessels in and through the... MORE

The Impact of Missile Threats on the Reliability of U.S. Overseas Bases: A Framework for Analysis
January 1, 2005 — Author: Mr Joel Wuthnow Although the United States will continue to utilize overseas military bases in the next decade, the acquisition and improvement of long-range missiles by several potential aggressors will pose new operational and strategic problems for U.S. forces. Several states will likely attain a credible capability to threaten U.S... MORE

Maintaining Effective Deterrence
August 1, 2003 — Author: Dr Colin S Gray While deterrence is as old as human conflict itself, it became particularly important with the advent of nuclear weapons when armed conflict between the superpowers had the potential to end civilization. Today there is a sense that terrorism has rendered deterrence obsolete and forced the United States to substitute... MORE

Facing the Hydra: Maintaining Strategic Balance while Pursuing a Global War against Terrorism
May 1, 2002 — Author: Dr Conrad C Crane The author analyzes the impact of the war on terrorism and the requirements of the 2001 Quadrennial Defense Review on the many essential missions conducted by the U.S. Armed Forces. Focusing primarily on the Army, he highlights the requirements associated with combat operations against terrorists, accelerating... MORE

Halt Phase Strategy: New Wine in Old Skins . . . with Powerpoint
July 1, 1998 — Author: Dr Earl H Tilford Jr Analyzes the Halt Phase Strategy/Doctrine currently advocated by the Air Force. As a part of his analysis, the author traces the immediate origins of Report of the Quadrennial Defense Review. Dr. Tilford contends, however, that Halt's real origins are more closely identified with intrinsic Air Force strategic bombing... MORE