Recent Publications

“Linking Trauma to the Prevalence of Civil War”
September 30, 2022 — This podcast argues the more trauma endured by a population, the more civil war the country will experience in the future. Drawing on mental health, trauma, and neurobiological research, it builds a new theory of civil war that fills existing gaps in current civil-war literature, and then tests the theory via statistical analysis of a large sample size (large-n statistical analysis). The conclusions will help policymakers and US military leadership better understand civil wars and the limits of American power to end them. ... MORE

Strategic Insights: Fragile States Cannot Be Fixed With State-Building
July 27, 2015 — Dr. Robert D. LambThe problem with the way the international community thinks about and responds to fragile states is not that we do not understand “fragility,” its causes, and its cures, but that we think of them as “states,” as coherent units of analysis. As a result of this strategic level mistake, efforts to build state capacity to contain... MORE

Reforming the Police in Post-Soviet States: Georgia and Kyrgyzstan
November 6, 2013 — Author: Dr Erica Marat View the Executive SummaryThis report identifies and explains the determinants of police reform in former Soviet states by examining the cases of Georgia and Kyrgyzstan. The two cases were chosen to show two drastically different approaches to reform played out in countries facing arguably similar problems with state-crime... MORE

Drug Trafficking, Violence, and Instability
April 1, 2012 — Authors: Dr Vanda Felbab-Brown, Dr Phil Williams Although challenges posed by various kinds of violent armed groups initially appear highly diverse and unrelated to one another, in fact they all reflect the increasing connections between security and governance and, in particular, the relationship between poor governance and violent armed groups... MORE

Cover for Drug Trafficking, Violence, and Instability

Threat Posed by Mounting Vigilantism in Mexico
September 1, 2011 — Author: Dr George W Grayson Until the 1980s, Mexico enjoyed relative freedom from violence. Ruthless drug cartels existed, but they usually abided by informal rules of conduct hammered out between several capos and representatives of the dominant Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), which ruled the country until the 1990s. Relying on bribes,... MORE

Civilian Skills for African Military Officers to Resolve the Infrastructure, Economic Development, and Stability Crisis in Sub-Saharan Africa
March 1, 2011 — Author: Ms Diane E Chido For decades, a lack of economic opportunity has caused instability and violence in Sub-Saharan Africa. Fortunately, U.S. Africa Command (USAFRICOM) is in a unique position to increase stability and reduce the causes of violence and extremism through new partnerships and military-to-military training. The current training... MORE

Crime, Violence, and the Crisis in Guatemala: A Case Study in the Erosion of the State
April 1, 2010 — Author: Dr Hal Brands Guatemala is currently experiencing a full-blown crisis of the democratic state. An unholy trinity of criminal elements—international drug traffickers, domestically based organized crime syndicates, and youth gangs—is effectively waging a form of irregular warfare against government institutions, with devastating consequences... MORE

Drug Trafficking, Violence, and Instability in Mexico, Colombia, and the Caribbean: Implications for U.S. National Security
January 1, 2010 — Authors: Mr Evan Brown, Dr Dallas D Owens Key Insights from the conference included:(1) The relationships between powerful criminal groups and states are complex and create transnational issues of corruption and the production, transportation, marketing, and consumption of illegal products and services that have national security implications for... MORE

Drug Trafficking, Violence, and the State in Mexico
April 1, 2009 — Author: Dr Phil Williams Each month a member of the SSI faculty writes an editorial for our monthly newsletter. This is the Op-Ed for the April 2009 newsletter. Read Now MORE

From the New Middle Ages to a New Dark Age: The Decline of the State and U.S. Strategy
June 1, 2008 — Author: Dr Phil Williams Security and stability in the 21st century have little to do with traditional power politics, military conflict between states, and issues of grand strategy. Instead they revolve around the disruptive consequences of globalization, declining governance, inequality, urbanization, and nonstate violent actors. The author... MORE

Global Climate Change National Security Implications
April 1, 2008 — Author: Dr Carolyn Pumphrey On March 29-31, 2007, the Strategic Studies Institute and the Triangle Institute for Security Studies conducted a colloquium on “Global Climate Change: National Security Implications” held in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. This volume is based on the proceedings of this conference. Chapter 1 addresses the growing... MORE

Iran, Iraq, and the United States: The New Triangle’s Impact on Sectarianism and the Nuclear Threat
November 1, 2006 — Author: Dr Sherifa D Zuhur This monograph considers the issues of Iranian influence in Iraq, and its impact on continuing sectarian violence there. It also questions the claims that a Shi'a crescent of power is solidifying by examining the distinct features of Iraqi versus Iranian Shi'ism and political Islam. Iran and Iraq havehistorically... MORE