Recent Publications - Tag CLSC External Articles

If China Attacks Taiwan: Beijing Risks Social Instability in a Conflict
February 4, 2026 — A conversation between Dr. Sheena Chestnut Greitens, Dr. Jake Rinaldi, and Bonnie Glaser on the risk of domestic social instability for Beijing if China attacked Taiwan. A podcast from The German Marshall Fund of the United States... MORE

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If China Attacks Taiwan: Beijing Risks Social Instability in a Conflict

Can the 15th Five-Year Plan Fix the People’s Liberation Army’s Procurement Bottlenecks?
January 14, 2026 — China’s newly released 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) proposal, unveiled after the Fourth Party Plenum in October 2025, not only marks Beijing’s quest to achieve the People’s Liberation Army’s goal of building a so-called world-class military by 2049. As the last major planning cycle before the 2035 benchmark for “basically achieving full modernization,” the plan also reaffirms General Secretary Xi Jinping’s core priorities: operational efficiency, technological self-reliance, and the Chinese Communist Party’s absolute command... MORE

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If China Attacks Taiwan: The Consequences for China of "Minor Conflict" and "Major War" Scenarios
January 6, 2026 — Introduction by Bonnie S. Glaser: Research on the possibility and likely outcome of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait has expanded rapidly in recent years. Studies have focused on a broad range of questions related to deterrence, potential conflict dynamics, and possible conflict outcomes. Tabletop exercises have been used to identify gaps in the... MORE

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China’s Foreign Police Training: A Global Footprint
November 13, 2025 — New data reveal how China’s foreign police training programs have become an integral part of Beijing’s strategy to remake global security... MORE

Forecasting the PRC’s Next Global Initiative
November 7, 2025 — Executive Summary: • Xi Jinping could unveil a “global environmental initiative” as soon as mid-November 2025, at the COP31 summit in Brazil. This would align with previous initiatives that have been announced at international forums. • This new initiative would complete a set of five that matches the five strands in the initial rubric of the “Community of Common Destiny” concept, Beijing’s framework for a new approach to global governance. • The PRC will likely leverage a global environmental initiative and its significant economic advantages in green energy to expand international acceptance of their alternative global governance model... MORE

The PLA’s Progress toward World-Class Ground Force Capabilities
October 27, 2025 — This essay examines Xi Jinping’s dictum of creating a world-class military by 2049 and assesses the progress of the PLA ground forces toward achieving that notional benchmark... MORE

Global Public Security with Chinese Characteristics
September 30, 2025 — A conversation between Dr. Sheena Chestnut Greitens and Bonnie Glaser on China's Global Security Initiative... MORE

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Adapting to Future Wars: The Reorganization of the PLA Army’s Special Operations Forces and the Move toward Professionalization
September 26, 2025 — The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) implemented major changes to the organization, accession, and training of its army’s special operations forces (SOF) beginning in 2017, including the creation of a 12-man SOF team and establishment of a probable national-level army-subordinate counterterrorism unit. Beginning in 2025, the PLA introduced several changes to improve officer accession and noncommissioned officer retention in its special operations community. This article assesses observed changes since 2017 designed to improve the PLA’s command and control of its army’s SOF units and to set the foundation for China’s elite forces becoming world-class by 2049... MORE

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A New World Cop on the Beat? China’s Internal Security Outreach Under the Global Security Initiative
August 13, 2025 — Global outreach by China’s internal security agencies is expanding. This nonmilitary security diplomacy plays a crucial yet overlooked role in Chinese foreign security policy. Watch Now MORE

Planning for Protracted Conflict With China: Five Questions to Ask
June 26, 2025 — Where and how a conflict starts will affect the kind of war it will be... MORE

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Assessing the PLA’s Strengths and Weaknesses for Achieving the PRC’s Goals
June 3, 2025 — This chapter examines the perceived strengths and weaknesses of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) within the context of its modernization process and argues that the persistence of shortcomings may undercut the confidence senior leaders would prefer to have before deciding to initiate major combat... MORE

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Ecuador’s Incoming Government Faces Difficult Choices Regarding China
May 8, 2025 — With Daniel Noboa returning to the presidency and a new Chinese ambassador on the way, China-Ecuador relations are at an inflection point.From April 22-25, I had the opportunity to travel to Quito, Ecuador, to address an international forum on China and Latin America, held by the prestigious San Francisco of Quito University and FLACSO Ecuador. My... MORE

Ecuador’s Incoming Government Faces Difficult Choices Regarding China | R. Evan Ellis