Recent Publications

China’s Foreign Police Training: A Global Footprint
November 13, 2025 — New data reveal how China’s foreign police training programs have become an integral part of Beijing’s strategy to remake global security... MORE

Forecasting the PRC’s Next Global Initiative
November 7, 2025 — Executive Summary: • Xi Jinping could unveil a “global environmental initiative” as soon as mid-November 2025, at the COP31 summit in Brazil. This would align with previous initiatives that have been announced at international forums. • This new initiative would complete a set of five that matches the five strands in the initial rubric of the “Community of Common Destiny” concept, Beijing’s framework for a new approach to global governance. • The PRC will likely leverage a global environmental initiative and its significant economic advantages in green energy to expand international acceptance of their alternative global governance model... MORE

The PLA’s Progress toward World-Class Ground Force Capabilities
October 27, 2025 — This essay examines Xi Jinping’s dictum of creating a world-class military by 2049 and assesses the progress of the PLA ground forces toward achieving that notional benchmark... MORE

Adapting to Future Wars: The Reorganization of the PLA Army’s Special Operations Forces and the Move toward Professionalization
September 26, 2025 — The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) implemented major changes to the organization, accession, and training of its army’s special operations forces (SOF) beginning in 2017, including the creation of a 12-man SOF team and establishment of a probable national-level army-subordinate counterterrorism unit. Beginning in 2025, the PLA introduced several changes to improve officer accession and noncommissioned officer retention in its special operations community. This article assesses observed changes since 2017 designed to improve the PLA’s command and control of its army’s SOF units and to set the foundation for China’s elite forces becoming world-class by 2049... MORE

Slide for Adapting to Future Wars: The Reorganization of the PLA Army’s Special Operations Forces and the Move toward Professionalization

A New World Cop on the Beat? China’s Internal Security Outreach Under the Global Security Initiative
August 13, 2025 — Global outreach by China’s internal security agencies is expanding. This nonmilitary security diplomacy plays a crucial yet overlooked role in Chinese foreign security policy. Watch Now MORE

Planning for Protracted Conflict With China: Five Questions to Ask
June 26, 2025 — Where and how a conflict starts will affect the kind of war it will be... MORE

Slide for Planning for Protracted Conflict with China: Five Questions to Ask

Assessing the PLA’s Strengths and Weaknesses for Achieving the PRC’s Goals
June 3, 2025 — This chapter examines the perceived strengths and weaknesses of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) within the context of its modernization process and argues that the persistence of shortcomings may undercut the confidence senior leaders would prefer to have before deciding to initiate major combat... MORE

Slide for Assessing the PLA’s Strengths and Weaknesses for Achieving the PRC’s Goals

Ecuador’s Incoming Government Faces Difficult Choices Regarding China
May 8, 2025 — With Daniel Noboa returning to the presidency and a new Chinese ambassador on the way, China-Ecuador relations are at an inflection point.From April 22-25, I had the opportunity to travel to Quito, Ecuador, to address an international forum on China and Latin America, held by the prestigious San Francisco of Quito University and FLACSO Ecuador. My... MORE

Ecuador’s Incoming Government Faces Difficult Choices Regarding China | R. Evan Ellis

Evolution of the Latin American Strategic Environment and the Posture of its Security Forces
January 14, 2025 — The security environment in Latin America and the Caribbean continues to evolve, driven in part by dramatic underlying changes in the broader global dynamics. Latin American security forces, constrained by a combination of resources and administrative and political factors, struggle with varying degrees of effectiveness to adapt. This paper... MORE

Evolution of the Latin American Strategic Environment and the Posture of its Security Forces | R. Evan Ellis

2025: Possibilities for the Year to Come
December 27, 2024 — 2025 is likely to be a transformative year for Latin America and the Caribbean, and its relationships with the United States, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and other actors. Although it is impossible to predict with certainty the complex interaction among interdependent events and factors, it is important to recognize the substantial number... MORE

2025: Possibilities for the Year to Come | Dr. R. Evan Ellis

Ecuador’s Evolving Engagement with the PRC
December 24, 2024 — Under the current Ecuadorian government of Daniel Noboa, major infrastructure, financial, and security cooperation with China has been restrained, but political expediency may change that.In September 2024, Ecuadorian Economy Minister Juan Carlos Vega Malo traveled to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to discuss a range of commercial and... MORE

Ecuador’s Evolving Engagement with the PRC | Dr. R. Evan Ellis

Making the Case for Democratic, Limited Government and Economic Liberty in the Americas
December 17, 2024 — This work is derived from an address given by the author to the InterAmerican Institute for Democracy on December 4, 2024, in Miami, Florida.In discussing the status of political and economic freedom in Latin America, my thoughts go to the consolidation of power of criminal dictatorships in Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba, the deterioration of... MORE

Making the Case for Democratic, Limited Government and Economic Liberty in the Americas | R. Evan Ellis