Recent Publications

Maneuvering the Islamist-Secularist Divide in the Arab World: How the United States Can Preserve its Interests and Values in an Increasingly Polarized Environment
October 28, 2014 — Author: Mr Gregory Aftandilian View the Executive SummaryThis monograph examines the Islamist-secularist divide in Arab countries, particularly in Egypt and Tunisia, and why it has become so intense and polarizing. It demonstrates that having Islamist parties in power or in domineering positions in Arab societies often provokes a backlash from... MORE

Visual Propaganda and Extremism in the Online Environment
July 25, 2014 — Authors: Dr Cori E Dauber, Dr Carol K Winkler View the Executive SummaryVisual images have been a central component of propaganda for as long as propaganda has been produced. But recent developments in communication and information technologies have given terrorist and extremist groups options and abilities they never would have been able to come... MORE

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Russia’s Contribution as a Partner in the War on Terrorism
July 8, 2014 — Author: Mr Henry Plater-Zyberk View the Executive SummaryThis monograph examines terrorism and counterterrorism from the Russian perspective so as to assess prospects for cooperation with Russia in fighting terror. It concludes that, regardless of the state of political relations between Russia and the United States at any given time, longer-term... MORE

Countering Radicalization and Recruitment to Al-Qaeda: Fighting the War of Deeds
June 13, 2014 — Author: Dr Paul Kamolnick View the Executive SummaryThis Letort Paper proposes that actions, policies, and deeds—those of the U.S. Government and al-Qaeda—be leveraged as a means of delegitimizing al-Qaeda terrorist propaganda. Two chief fronts—changing deeds and challenging deeds—is proposed. Changing deeds requires that the United States... MORE

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Cyberterrorism after STUXNET
June 11, 2014 — Author: Dr Thomas M Chen View the Executive SummaryThe discovery of STUXNET was a recent milestone in the arena of cyber security because it was the first malware designed to cause real world damage to industrial control systems. It demonstrated that a sufficiently determined adversary might be able to cause physical damage to U.S. critical... MORE

Russia’s Counterinsurgency in North Caucasus: Performance and Consequences
March 31, 2014 — Author: Dr Ariel CohenView the Executive Summary The North Caucasus region has been a source of instability for the past several centuries. Most recently, Chechen aspirations to achieve full independence after the break-up of the Soviet Union led to two disastrous wars. While the active phase of the Chechen conflict ended in 2000 – more than a... MORE

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The Effectiveness of Drone Strikes in Counterinsurgency and Counterterrorism Campaigns
September 26, 2013 — Author: Dr James Igoe Walsh View the Executive SummaryThe United States increasingly relies on unmanned aerial vehicles to target insurgent and terrorist groups around the world. This monograph analyzes the available research and evidence that assesses the political and military consequences of drone strikes. It is not clear if drone strikes have... MORE

Russian Interests in Sub-Saharan Africa
July 12, 2013 — Author: Mr Keir Giles View the Executive SummaryAn apparent lack of interest by Russia in Sub-Saharan Africa over recent years masks persistent key strategic drivers for Moscow to re-establish lost influence in the region. A preoccupation with more immediate foreign policy concerns has temporarily interrupted a process of Russia reclaiming... MORE

The Struggle for Yemen and the Challenge of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula
June 21, 2013 — Author: Dr W Andrew Terrill View the Executive SummaryIn recent years, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has been widely recognized as a more dangerous regional and international terrorist organization than the original al-Qaeda led by Osama bin Laden until his death in 2011. In 2010-11, AQAP was able to present a strong challenge to Yemen's... MORE

The Challenge of Drug Trafficking to Democratic Governance and Human Security in West Africa
May 17, 2013 — Author: Mr David E Brown View the Executive SummaryInternational criminal networks mainly from Latin America and Africa—some with links to terrorism—are turning West Africa into a key global hub for the distribution, wholesaling, and production of illicit drugs. These groups represent an existential threat to democratic governance of already... MORE

Op-Ed: Drones Are Making A Difference In Yemen
March 13, 2013 — Dr. W. Andrew TerrillUnmanned aerial vehicles (often known as drones) have recently been the subject of intense controversy due to their use in remote parts of the world to target individuals designated as terrorists. This concern is appropriate, because many aspects of their use are clearly in need of scrupulous legal and ethical consideration... MORE

Jihadist Cells and “IED” Capabilities in Europe: Assessing the Present and Future Threat to the West
November 1, 2012 — Author: Dr Jeffrey M Bale The first of two interrelated security threats is multifaceted inasmuch as it stems from a complex combination of religious, political, historical, cultural, social, and economic motivational factors caused by the growing predilection for carrying out mass casualty terrorist attacks inside the territories of “infidel”... MORE

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