Recent Publications

“Spatial Anchors and Dangerous Liaisons: Terrorist Collaboration in an Augmented Age”
August 8, 2024 — If leaders of terrorist organizations can recruit, indoctrinate, plan, and operate using AR with little drop-off in effectiveness while staying safely in hiding, the challenges faced by national security and law-enforcement organizations will increase exponentially... MORE

2024 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment
July 24, 2024 — The United States faces a complex and ever-changing global environment. The 2024 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment is designed to guide the collective defense community to research and write about critical national security challenges to help the Army prepare for a wide range of potential conflicts and threats... MORE

The 2024 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment sets the foundation for cutting-edge research to understand the ever-evolving security environment domestically and internationally.

“ChatGPT, Artificial Intelligence, and the Terrorist Toolbox”
July 9, 2024 — Dr. Sarah Lohmann discusses the use of AI in terrorism, emphasizing its potential for both good and malicious intent. She highlights terrorists’ utilization of AI tools for recruitment and accessing sensitive data, posing cybersecurity risks. Lohmann also touches on AI regulation efforts, disparities between regions,... MORE

“ChatGPT, Artificial Intelligence, and the Terrorist Toolbox”
July 9, 2024 — Dr. Sarah Lohmann discusses the use of AI in terrorism, emphasizing its potential for both good and malicious intent. She highlights terrorists’ utilization of AI tools for recruitment and accessing sensitive data, posing cybersecurity risks. Lohmann also touches on AI regulation efforts, disparities between regions, and the importance of innovation and transparency in AI governance. Global cooperation is crucial... MORE

Emerging Technologies and Terrorism: An American Perspective
April 18, 2024 — In a world where technology is rapidly advancing and available to the masses, companies and policymakers face a daunting reality—non-state actors are using innovation for sinister purposes. While artificial intelligence (AI) and autonomous systems promise enhanced threat detection, terrorist groups are exploiting these tools for recruitment and attacks... MORE

2023 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment
August 24, 2023 — The United States operates within a global context that is increasingly complex, interconnected, and unpredictable. The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment serves as a guide to define broadly the contemporary security landscape and the diverse range of interests that shape our national security agenda... MORE

2023 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment
The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment serves as a guide for academics and practitioners in the defense community on the current challenges and opportunities in the strategic environment. This year’s publication outlines key strategic issues across the four broad themes of Regional Challenges and Opportunities, Domestic Challenges, Institutional Challenges, and Domains Impacting US Strategic Advantage. These themes represent a wide range of topics affecting national security and provide a global assessment of the strategic environment to help focus the defense community on research and publication. Strategic competition with the People’s Republic of China and the implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine remain dominant challenges to US national security interests across the globe. However, the evolving security environment also presents new and unconventional threats, such as cyberattacks, terrorism, transnational crime, and the implications of rapid technological advancements in fields such as artificial intelligence. At the same time, the US faces domestic and institutional challenges in the form of recruiting and retention shortfalls in the all-volunteer force, the prospect of contested logistics in large-scale combat operations, and the health of the US Defense Industrial Base. Furthermore, rapidly evolving security landscapes in the Arctic region and the space domain pose unique potential challenges to the Army’s strategic advantage.
https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/962/

On “Countering Terrorism on Tomorrow’s Battlefield and Critical Infrastructure Security and Resiliency”
May 10, 2023 — In this episode of Conversations on Strategy, Lucas Cox shares his thoughts on being an intern working on two collaborative studies for NATO. ... MORE

A Hard Look at Hard Power: Assessing the Defense Capabilities of Key US Allies and Security Partners—Second Edition
October 30, 2020 — Mr. Gary J. Schmitt, 2020With the United States facing two major revisionist powers, Russia and China, as well as additional security threats from North Korea, Iran, and jihadist terrorism, a critical advantage for the United States is its global network of alliances and strategic partners. As the 2018 National Defense Strategy states, “Alliances... MORE

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Friendly Force Dilemmas in Europe: Challenges Within and Among Intergovernmental Organizations and the Implications for the U.S. Army
May 23, 2018 — Authors: Jose Luis Calvo Albero, Jose De Meer Madrid, Kirk Gallinger, Klaus Klingenschmid, Angus McAfee, Stefano Messina, Markus Meyer, Michael Mineni, Darryl RuppAfter a period of stability, the transatlantic community is facing considerable challenges in maintaining European security. Russia’s efforts to destabilize Europe, terrorism, climate... MORE

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Strategic Insights: The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS/ISIL) and Trinidad and Tobago: Establishing a Dangerous Presence in the Western Hemisphere
May 13, 2016 — Dr. José de Arimatéia da Cruz In his National Security Strategy (February 2015), President Barack Obama stated that, “the threat of catastrophic attacks against our homeland by terrorists has diminished but still persists . . . Our adversaries are not confined to a distinct country or region. Instead, they range from South Asia through the Middle... MORE

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Strategic Insights: The Coming Perfect Storm of Europe
April 15, 2016 — Lieutenant Colonel Michael A. Adelberg A collection of social and security trends are at play in Europe that may threaten the peace and stability of the continent. The array of challenges, threats, and frictions could converge at such a point that an unintentional spark could ignite a major crisis or even a regional war of some type.The most... MORE

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Joining the New Caravan: ISIS and the Regeneration of Terrorism in Southeast Asia
June 25, 2015 — Dr. Zachary AbuzaIntroduction.Since early-2014, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) has made gradual inroads into Southeast Asia. There are an estimated 500 Southeast Asians, not including family and kin, in Iraq and Syria fighting for ISIS, as well as al-Nusra, which at first attracted far more Southeast Asians. Since August 2014, there has... MORE