Recent Publications

Emerging Technologies and Terrorism: An American Perspective
April 18, 2024 — In a world where technology is rapidly advancing and available to the masses, companies and policymakers face a daunting reality—non-state actors are using innovation for sinister purposes. While artificial intelligence (AI) and autonomous systems promise enhanced threat detection, terrorist groups are exploiting these tools for recruitment and attacks... MORE

2023 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment
August 24, 2023 — The United States operates within a global context that is increasingly complex, interconnected, and unpredictable. The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment serves as a guide to define broadly the contemporary security landscape and the diverse range of interests that shape our national security agenda... MORE

2023 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment
The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment serves as a guide for academics and practitioners in the defense community on the current challenges and opportunities in the strategic environment. This year’s publication outlines key strategic issues across the four broad themes of Regional Challenges and Opportunities, Domestic Challenges, Institutional Challenges, and Domains Impacting US Strategic Advantage. These themes represent a wide range of topics affecting national security and provide a global assessment of the strategic environment to help focus the defense community on research and publication. Strategic competition with the People’s Republic of China and the implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine remain dominant challenges to US national security interests across the globe. However, the evolving security environment also presents new and unconventional threats, such as cyberattacks, terrorism, transnational crime, and the implications of rapid technological advancements in fields such as artificial intelligence. At the same time, the US faces domestic and institutional challenges in the form of recruiting and retention shortfalls in the all-volunteer force, the prospect of contested logistics in large-scale combat operations, and the health of the US Defense Industrial Base. Furthermore, rapidly evolving security landscapes in the Arctic region and the space domain pose unique potential challenges to the Army’s strategic advantage.
https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/962/

A Hard Look at Hard Power: Assessing the Defense Capabilities of Key US Allies and Security Partners—Second Edition
October 30, 2020 — Mr. Gary J. Schmitt, 2020With the United States facing two major revisionist powers, Russia and China, as well as additional security threats from North Korea, Iran, and jihadist terrorism, a critical advantage for the United States is its global network of alliances and strategic partners. As the 2018 National Defense Strategy states, “Alliances... MORE

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Friendly Force Dilemmas in Europe: Challenges Within and Among Intergovernmental Organizations and the Implications for the U.S. Army
May 23, 2018 — Authors: Jose Luis Calvo Albero, Jose De Meer Madrid, Kirk Gallinger, Klaus Klingenschmid, Angus McAfee, Stefano Messina, Markus Meyer, Michael Mineni, Darryl RuppAfter a period of stability, the transatlantic community is facing considerable challenges in maintaining European security. Russia’s efforts to destabilize Europe, terrorism, climate... MORE

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Strategic Insights: The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS/ISIL) and Trinidad and Tobago: Establishing a Dangerous Presence in the Western Hemisphere
May 13, 2016 — Dr. José de Arimatéia da Cruz In his National Security Strategy (February 2015), President Barack Obama stated that, “the threat of catastrophic attacks against our homeland by terrorists has diminished but still persists . . . Our adversaries are not confined to a distinct country or region. Instead, they range from South Asia through the Middle... MORE

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Strategic Insights: The Coming Perfect Storm of Europe
April 15, 2016 — Lieutenant Colonel Michael A. Adelberg A collection of social and security trends are at play in Europe that may threaten the peace and stability of the continent. The array of challenges, threats, and frictions could converge at such a point that an unintentional spark could ignite a major crisis or even a regional war of some type.The most... MORE

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What the President’s ISIL Strategy Means to the Army
December 11, 2014 — Lieutenant Colonel Michael A. Adelberg When President Barack Obama gave his speech outlining his strategy to counter the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) on September 10, 2014, he was very clear that he would not send U.S. troops into Iraq with a ground combat mission. The United States will “degrade and ultimately destroy” ISIL though... MORE

Nuclear Weapons Materials Gone Missing: What Does History Teach?
November 1, 2014 — Author: Mr Henry D Sokolski View the Executive SummaryIn 2009, President Obama spotlighted nuclear terrorism as one of the top threats to international security, launching an international effort to identify, secure, and dispose of global stocks of weapons-usable nuclear materials—namely highly enriched uranium and weapons-grade plutonium. Since... MORE

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Maneuvering the Islamist-Secularist Divide in the Arab World: How the United States Can Preserve its Interests and Values in an Increasingly Polarized Environment
October 1, 2014 — Author: Mr Gregory Aftandilian View the Executive SummaryThis monograph examines the Islamist-secularist divide in Arab countries, particularly in Egypt and Tunisia, and why it has become so intense and polarizing. It demonstrates that having Islamist parties in power or in domineering positions in Arab societies often provokes a backlash from... MORE

Russia’s Contribution as a Partner in the War on Terrorism
July 1, 2014 — Author: Mr Henry Plater-Zyberk View the Executive SummaryThis monograph examines terrorism and counterterrorism from the Russian perspective so as to assess prospects for cooperation with Russia in fighting terror. It concludes that, regardless of the state of political relations between Russia and the United States at any given time, longer-term... MORE

Visual Propaganda and Extremism in the Online Environment
July 1, 2014 — Authors: Dr Cori E Dauber, Dr Carol K Winkler View the Executive SummaryVisual images have been a central component of propaganda for as long as propaganda has been produced. But recent developments in communication and information technologies have given terrorist and extremist groups options and abilities they never would have been able to come... MORE

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Cyberterrorism after STUXNET
June 1, 2014 — Author: Dr Thomas M Chen View the Executive SummaryThe discovery of STUXNET was a recent milestone in the arena of cyber security because it was the first malware designed to cause real world damage to industrial control systems. It demonstrated that a sufficiently determined adversary might be able to cause physical damage to U.S. critical... MORE