Recent Publications

It’s (Still) More Expensive to Rotate Military Forces Overseas than Base Them There
December 19, 2024 — In mid-2020, then-President Donald Trump ordered the Pentagon to withdraw roughly one-third of US forces from Germany, reportedly because of policy differences with Berlin. Given how long it would take to implement such a significant change in overseas posture, the clock ran out on his term before the Department of Defense could complete it. With... MORE

It’s (still) more expensive to rotate military forces overseas than base them there | By John R. Deni

Will Assad’s Defeat be Putin’s Waterloo?
December 10, 2024 — The narrative of Russia’s ascendancy in 2024 is beginning to look like more fiction than fact. The Assad regime in Syria has become a casualty of Moscow’s increasingly desperate efforts in Ukraine, and its collapse is a strategic and operational blow that undermines the narrative of Russia as ascendant, Kyiv as doomed, and Vladimir Putin as strategic mastermind. ... MORE

Will Assad’s defeat be Putin’s Waterloo? | John R. Deni

SSI Live 114 – The Role of European Allies in the Ukraine War
December 2, 2024 — America’s European allies have played a critical role in providing military assistance to Ukraine. Can Europeans maintain that effort or even increase it if the United States reduces its role? What lessons can the United States learn from the role of its European allies in this war, which might be applicable to future rounds of strategic... MORE

America and the International Order
October 30, 2024 — In this episode, Lieutenant General Ben Hodges (US Army, retired) discusses America’s role in the international order. The podcast covers the Russia-Ukraine War and what it means for NATO, maintaining stability in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, strategic competition between China and the United States in the Indo-Pacific, the economic and technological competition between the United States and China, South America and immigration, North Korea, and more. ... MORE

Conversations on Strategy Podcast – Ep 53 – LTG Ben Hodges (US Army, retired) – America and the International Order

Book Review: War in Ukraine: Conflict, Strategy, and the Return of a Fractured World
September 25, 2024 — John Erickson and John Nagl review Hal Brands’s 2024 anthology on the Russia-Ukraine War, including a thorough and helpful overview of the parts and chapters. They supplement the review with a contextualization of the war and its significance for the rest of the world. They call Brands’s book, “a scholarly appraisal of the Russian invasion of Ukraine that may mark the first blows of World War III.”... MORE

cover of War in Ukraine: Conflict, Strategy, and the Return of a Fractured World

Book Review: Putin’s War on Ukraine: Russia’s Campaign for Global Counter-Revolution
September 25, 2024 — Senior Russia analyst Dr. Lionel M. Beehner provides thoughtful praise and critiques on Samuel Ramani’s 2023 book, Putin’s War on Ukraine, calling it “a must-read for diplomats and defense experts.” According to Beehner, Ramani provides “a front-row seat to the war,” helpfully “recalls incidents that may be buried in readers’ minds,” and “masterfully shows the chaos within Russian leadership circles near the invasion.” Beehner also distills and explains Ramani’s main point... MORE

cover of Putin’s War on Ukraine: Russia’s Campaign for Global Counter-Revolution

Ukraine in NATO: Beyond the ‘Irreversible Path’
September 20, 2024 — Whether and how NATO might pull Ukraine closer attracted a great deal of attention at the 2024 Washington summit, with the Alliance settling on the formulation of an ‘irreversible path’ towards Kyiv’s membership and pledging to further institutionalise the NATO–Ukraine relationship. There has been comparatively little analysis of what should happen... MORE

Ukraine in NATO: Beyond the ‘Irreversible Path’ | Jorh R. Deni

The Role of America’s European Allies in the Russia-Ukraine War, 2022–24
September 19, 2024 — What more can US allies in Europe do to assist Ukraine militarily? More broadly, what can the United States expect from its closest allies in Europe in strategic competition with Russia and China? In this monograph, John R. Deni and Lisa A. Aronsson assess whether US allies and partners in Europe can continue providing military assistance to Ukraine or expand assistance, while preserving their own national... MORE

The NATO Strategic Concept on Its Seventy-Fifth Anniversary
August 14, 2024 — | Published by Army University Press Military Review, July-August 2024 | The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) will celebrate its seventy-fifth anniversary at its 2024 summit in Washington, D.C. NATO’s age tells a story of alliance endurance through Cold War tensions, a difficult Global War on Terrorism, and now major war on its doorstep... MORE

2024 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment
July 24, 2024 — The United States faces a complex and ever-changing global environment. The 2024 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment is designed to guide the collective defense community to research and write about critical national security challenges to help the Army prepare for a wide range of potential conflicts and threats... MORE

The 2024 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment sets the foundation for cutting-edge research to understand the ever-evolving security environment domestically and internationally.

“Iraq’s Ministry of Interior: NATO, Capability Building, and Reform”
July 22, 2024 — Andrea Malouf, a consultant and adviser, discusses her article, “Iraq’s Ministry of Interior: NATO, Capability Building, and Reform.” She emphasizes the importance of defining clear end states for successful reform, avoiding a sole focus on training, making strategic decisions based on practical constraints, questioning assumptions and biases, collaborating with partner organizations, understanding public perceptions,... MORE

NATO’s in Denial about Deterrence by Denial
July 8, 2024 — Taking the necessary steps to fully operationalize deterrence by denial is critical — especially before a possible change in America’s relationship with NATO.Recent revelations that the Chinese government has been substantially aiding Russia’s war effort in Ukraine — selling the country all it needs to build its own armaments, including microchips... MORE

NATO’s in Denial about Deterrence by Denial
John R. Deni
Published by POLITICO