Recent Publications

Leaderless Organizations and the Strategic Value of Airstrikes in Syria
December 29, 2014 — Lieutenant Colonel Michael A. Adelberg After more than three years of war in Syria, which has seen more than one million refugees, more than a quarter million dead, the use of chemical weapons, and dozens of atrocities on all sides, the United States finally became involved. On September 22, 2014 the United States and a coalition of Arab states... MORE

Regionalizing East Mediterranean Gas: Energy Security, Stability, and the U.S. Role
December 19, 2014 — Author: Ms Laura El-Katiri, Dr Mohammed El-KatiriView the Executive SummaryThe East Mediterranean has been witnessing an unparalleled natural resource boom since the late-2000s, when Israel, followed by Cyprus, made its first significant offshore hydrocarbon discoveries in many years. These discoveries have since proven to be substantially larger... MORE

Strategic Insights: The U.S. Foray Into The Levant
October 15, 2014 — Dr. Sami G. Hajjar The Levant is caught up in a web of political, social, and economic problems that seem to be the work of the hidden hand of the devil. The U.S. Air Force, and those of Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Jordan are actively bombing positions of the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL, or ISIS by... MORE

Cover for Strategic Insights: The U.S. Foray Into The Levant

Turkey’s New Regional Security Role: Implications for the United States
September 10, 2014 — Author: Dr Richard Weitz View the Executive SummaryUntil a few years ago, the relationship between Washington and Ankara was perennially troubled and occasionally terrible. Turkey opposed the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq and complained that the Pentagon was allowing Iraqi Kurds too much autonomy, leading to deteriorating security along the... MORE

Op-Ed: Syria and the Great Middle Eastern War
July 8, 2014 — Dr. Larry P. GoodsonThe Syrian Civil War is shaping up to do something disastrous to the Middle East—something that has not occurred in modern history. A regional conflagration is coming; indeed, it may already be here. The meltdown currently underway in Iraq is only the first manifestation of the regional war—or perhaps region-wide violence—that... MORE

The Resurgence of Al-Qaeda in Syria and Iraq
May 6, 2014 — Author: Dr Azeem Ibrahim View the Executive SummaryThe Syrian civil war has allowed al-Qaeda to recover from its setbacks up to 2010. Its main affiliate in the region seems to be testing a new strategy of collaboration with other Salafist-Jihadist groups and a less brutal implementation of Sharia law in areas it controls. In combination, this might... MORE

What Will Happen to Syria’s Christians?
May 5, 2014 — Dr. W. Andrew Terrill The Syrian civil war is widely understood to have a strong sectarian component. In this conflict, Bashar Assad’s Alawite–dominated regime is seeking to crush an uprising led by majority Sunni Arabs. The Alawites are a branch of Shi’ite Islam and have been supported by Shi’ite allies including Iran, the Lebanese terrorist group... MORE

Russia After Putin
May 2, 2014 — Author: Dr Richard J Krickus View the Executive SummaryDespite many obstacles, the leadership in Washington and Moscow must find ways to address security threats even as the United States rebalances toward Asia. Moreover, he agrees with prominent statesmen like Zbigniew Brzezinski and Henry Kissinger that ultimately, Russia must be integrated into... MORE

Turkey-Kurdish Regional Government Relations After the U.S. Withdrawal From Iraq: Putting the Kurds on the Map?
March 12, 2014 — Author: Mr Bill Park View the Executive SummaryThe withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from Iraq at the end of 2011 left behind a set of unresolved problems in the relationship between the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), and the Federal Government in Baghdad—notably relating to the disputed boundaries of the KRG, and the extent of its autonomy... MORE

Cover for Turkey-Kurdish Regional Government Relations After the U.S. Withdrawal From Iraq: Putting the Kurds on the Map?

Op-Ed: Will the Syrian Civil War Last 10 More Years?
December 30, 2013 — Dr. W. Andrew TerrillThe Syrian civil war began in March 2011 when large numbers of peaceful protestors began demanding an end to the brutal autocratic rule of President Bashar Assad. Many Syrian demonstrators hoped that their dictatorship could be overthrown as easily as those in Tunisia and Egypt as part of the regional process now known as the... MORE

Avoiding the Slippery Slope: Conducting Effective Interventions
June 4, 2013 — Author: Dr Thomas R Mockaitis View the Executive SummaryThis Letort Paper covers U.S. military interventions in civil conflicts since the end of the Cold War. It defines intervention as the use of military force to achieve a specific objective (i.e., deliver humanitarian aid, support revolutionaries or insurgents, protect a threatened population,... MORE

Op-Ed: The West and the Durability and Problems of Monarchies in the Arab Spring
December 14, 2011 — Dr. W. Andrew TerrillThe regional response to the Arab Spring has alarmed a number of international observers because a variety of ugly governments are displaying their ugliest side. No civilized person condones the nature of Libyan leader Muhammar Qadhafi’s final hour, but equally no one doubts that he worked hard to earn such a fate. Likewise, in... MORE