Recent Publications

Op-Ed: The West and the Durability and Problems of Monarchies in the Arab Spring
December 14, 2011 — Dr. W. Andrew TerrillThe regional response to the Arab Spring has alarmed a number of international observers because a variety of ugly governments are displaying their ugliest side. No civilized person condones the nature of Libyan leader Muhammar Qadhafi’s final hour, but equally no one doubts that he worked hard to earn such a fate. Likewise, in... MORE

The Saudi-Iranian Rivalry and the Future of Middle East Security
December 1, 2011 — Author: Dr W Andrew Terrill Saudi Arabia and Iran have often behaved as serious rivals for influence in the Middle East and especially the Gulf area since at least Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution and the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War. While both nations define themselves as Islamic, the differences between their foreign policies could hardly be more... MORE

The Arab Spring and the Future of U.S. Interests and Cooperative Security in the Arab World
August 2, 2011 — Table of Contents Summary Introduction Tunisia Egypt Libya Bahrain Syria Yemen Algeria Jordan Morocco Oman Kuwait Lebanon Mauritania Saudi Arabia Conclusion EndnotesSummaryThe Arab Spring is an ongoing and deeply significant process occurring in the contemporary Middle East that will have important implications for the United States government. In... MORE

Negotiating with Iran and Syria over Iraq
January 1, 2007 — Author: Dr W Andrew Terrill Each month a member of the SSI faculty writes an editorial for our monthly newsletter. This is the Op-Ed for the January 2007 newsletter.Read Now MORE

Getting Ready for a Nuclear-Ready Iran
November 1, 2005 — Authors: Mr Patrick Clawson, Mr Henry D Sokolski As Iran edges closer to acquiring a nuclear bomb and its missiles extend an ever darker diplomatic shadow over the Middle East and Europe, Iran is likely to pose three threats. First, Iran could dramatically up the price of oil by interfering with the free passage of vessels in and through the... MORE

Strategic Implications of Intercommunal Warfare in Iraq
February 1, 2005 — Author: Dr W Andrew Terrill In the post-Saddam era, differences among Iraqi ethnic and religious groups will either emerge as a barrier to political cooperation and national unity, or they will instead be mitigated as part of the struggle to define a new and more inclusive system of government. Should Iraqi ethnic and sectarian differences become... MORE

Hizballah: Terrorism, National Liberation, or Menace?
August 1, 2002 — Author: Dr Sami G Hajjar The author reviews the history of Hizballah since its inception in 1982, and examines its role in the recent political turmoil of Lebanon and the region. Not only is Hizballah's role central in the dispute over the Sheb'a Farms enclave between Lebanon and Israel, it is part of an entangled set of linkages involving Syria,... MORE

Syria and the Peace: A Good Chance Missed
July 7, 1997 — Author: Dr Helena Cobban One of the more dismaying aspects of the current peace process has been the failure of Syria and Israel to make a deal. According to Christian Science Monitor correspondent Helena Cobban, these two long-standing foes came very close to composing their decades-old quarrel. The Syrian and Israeli leaders persevered to... MORE

Assad and the Peace Process: The Pivotal Role of Lebanon
February 1, 1995 — Author: Dr Stephen C Pelletiere The world is waiting for peace in the Middle East. At present the possibility of a settlement is delayed by differences between Israel and Syria. The two are far apart on how to solve one of the thornier problems of the negotiations--the eventual status of the Golan Heights. That Syria's President Assad and Israel's... MORE

Turkey’s Strategic Position at the Crossroads of World Affairs
December 1, 1993 — Authors: Dr Stephen J Blank, Dr William T Johnsen, Dr Stephen C Pelletiere This report analyzes the implications of Turkey's policies and the reactions of Turkey's neighbors in three discrete chapters. The authors focus their conclusions and options for U.S. policymakers on the effect of Turkish policies in Europe, the Middle East, and the former... MORE