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Coalition of the unWilling and unAble by John R. Deni
Coalition of the unWilling and unAble
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China, Europe, and the Pandemic Recession: Beijing’s Investments and Transatlantic Security Dr. John R. Deni, 2022 Given the depth and breadth of the pandemic-induced recession in Europe, private companies in need of capital and governments looking to shed state-owned enterprises may be tempted to sell shares, assets, or outright ownership to investors with liquidity to spare. Of greatest concern is the role that China might play in Europe, building Beijing’s soft power, weakening allied geopolitical solidarity, and potentially reprising the role it played in the 2010s, when its investments in Europe expanded dramatically. https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/949/
China, Europe, and the Pandemic Recession: Beijing’s Investments and Transatlantic Security
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The People of the PLA 2.0 by Roy Kamphausen https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/944/
The People of the PLA 2.0
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2023 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment serves as a guide for academics and practitioners in the defense community on the current challenges and opportunities in the strategic environment. This year’s publication outlines key strategic issues across the four broad themes of Regional Challenges and Opportunities, Domestic Challenges, Institutional Challenges, and Domains Impacting US Strategic Advantage. These themes represent a wide range of topics affecting national security and provide a global assessment of the strategic environment to help focus the defense community on research and publication. Strategic competition with the People’s Republic of China and the implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine remain dominant challenges to US national security interests across the globe. However, the evolving security environment also presents new and unconventional threats, such as cyberattacks, terrorism, transnational crime, and the implications of rapid technological advancements in fields such as artificial intelligence. At the same time, the US faces domestic and institutional challenges in the form of recruiting and retention shortfalls in the all-volunteer force, the prospect of contested logistics in large-scale combat operations, and the health of the US Defense Industrial Base. Furthermore, rapidly evolving security landscapes in the Arctic region and the space domain pose unique potential challenges to the Army’s strategic advantage. https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/962/
2023 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment
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Recent Publications
Publications | May 29, 2024

Playing Both Sides of the U.S.-Chinese Rivalry

Why Countries Get External Security from Washington—and Internal Security from BeijingOn a visit to Budapest in late February, China’s minister of public security, Wang Xiaohong, secured a face-to-face meeting with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor
Publications | April 17, 2024

Decisive Decade: PRC Global Strategy and the PLA as a Pacing Challenge –...

The US Army War College’s 2023 Conference on the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) was held February 22 to 24, 2023, at Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania. The conference, entitled “Decisive Decade: PRC Global Strategy and the PLA as Pacing Challenge,”
Publications | April 11, 2024

War with China: A View from Early 2024

US defense analysts are overdue for a fundamental reassessment of the strategic factors that would shape a future Sino-American war.The United States may lower the overall risk of sparking a war between Washington and Beijing by more formally
Publications | April 9, 2024

A Baseline Assessment of the PLA Army's Border Reinforcement Operations ...

This report analyzes the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) border reinforcement operation throughout the Aksai Chin and adjacent areas from summer 2020 to early 2021. It is based largely on analysis of Google Earth imagery and provides a baseline for
China Landpower Studies Center | March 22, 2024

Implications for Modern Warfighting Concepts: What the US Army Can Learn...

These four historic vignettes provide context and lessons learned for the US Army as it returns to peer conflict. Although history does not account for the cyber and space domains, the leaders involved in the highlighted conflicts dealt with the
Publications | March 20, 2024

Arming Allies and Partners: How Foreign Military Sales Can Change the Ch...

Allies and partners are “a center of gravity” for the DoD National Defense Strategy in the Indo-Pacific. But are regional nations building military capacity to help the United States prepare for and deter a potential clash with the People’s Republic
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Cover for Avoiding the Trap: U.S. Strategy and Policy for Competing in the Asia-Pacific Beyond the Rebalance
Avoiding the Trap: U.S. Strategy and Policy for Competing in the Asia-Pacific Beyond the Rebalance
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Cover for U.S.-China Competition: Asia-Pacific Land Force Implications – A U.S. Army War College Integrated Research Project in Support of U.S. Army Pacific Command and Headquarters, Department of the Army, Directorate of Strategy and Policy (HQDA G-35)
U.S.-China Competition: Asia-Pacific Land Force Implications
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Cover for An Army Transformed: USINDOPACOM Hypercompetition and US Army Theater Design
An Army Transformed: USINDOPACOM Hypercompetition and US Army Theater Design
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Cover for Outplayed: Regaining Strategic Initiative in the Gray Zone, A Report Sponsored by the Army Capabilities Integration Center in Coordination with Joint Staff J-39/Strategic Multi-Layer Assessment Branch
Outplayed: Regaining Strategic Initiative in the Gray Zone
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From the Archives
Implications for Modern Warfighting Concepts: What the US Army Can Learn from Past Conflicts
These four historic vignettes provide context and lessons learned for the US Army as it returns to peer conflict. Although history does not account for the cyber and space domains, the leaders involved in the highlighted conflicts dealt with the reintroduction of maneuver warfare tied to modern fires from land, sea, and air. Peer-level conflict also compelled governments to work intensely in the information space to steel their societies and to influence allies, partners, and adversaries. Using historical reference material and insights from historians and other experts, this essay will help the US Army and the wider community of interest relearn peer rival conflict to support deterrence and prepare for the next large-scale war. Cover photo from https://www.defense.gov/Multimedia/Photos/igphoto/2003203865/ Firing Line Soldiers conduct suppression by fire during a training exercise as part of Balikatan 23 in the Philippines, April 13, 2023. Balikatan 23 is the 38th iteration of the annual exercise between the U.S. military and the Philippines armed forces.
March 22, 2024 - These four historic vignettes provide context and lessons learned for the US Army as it returns to peer conflict. Although history does not account for the cyber and space domains, the leaders involved in the highlighted...
Arming Allies and Partners: How Foreign Military Sales Can Change the China Problem
Arming Allies and Partners: How Foreign Military Sales Can Change the China Problem By Brennan Deveraux Background photo from DVIDS: https://www.dvidshub.net/image/1362099/decisive-action-rotation-14-07
March 20, 2024 - Allies and partners are “a center of gravity” for the DoD National Defense Strategy in the Indo-Pacific. But are regional nations building military capacity to help the United States prepare for and deter a potential clash...
China’s Security Engagement in Latin America and the Caribbean
China’s Security Engagement in Latin America and the Caribbean An overview of the characteristics and trends in China’s security engagement in the region, and how it is evolving. China’s activities in the security and defense sector in Latin America and the Caribbean are a small but strategically significant portion of its engagement with the region. Beijing has openly acknowledged its interest in engaging with the region on security matters in the 2008 and 2016 China-Latin America Policy White Papers, as well as in the 2022-2024 China-CELAC plan. That interest is also reflected in the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs white paper elaborating on China’s Global Security initiative. The security dimension of China’s engagement in the region has been highlighted by the head of U.S. Southern Command and other senior U.S. defense officials, as well as receiving occasional coverage in the media and academic works, generally with a focus on the threat posed to the United States. Background image from Deposit Photos via The Diplomat (https://thediplomat.com/2024/02/chinas-security-engagement-in-latin-america-and-the-caribbean/)
Feb. 26, 2024 - An overview of the characteristics and trends in China’s security engagement in the region, and how it is evolving.China’s activities in the security and defense sector in Latin America and the Caribbean are a small but...
Why North Korea Survives
Why North Korea Survives Here’s how the Kim regime has proven so resilient. Sheena Chestnut Greitens Background image from Persuasion article (https://www.persuasion.community/p/a0ef3d8d-1bd2-438d-87fe-72653b385ad6 by KIM Won Jin/AFP)
Feb. 20, 2024 - Here’s how the Kim regime has proven so resilient.North Korea’s recent jettisoning of reunification with South Korea as a national goal has raised much speculation about Pyongyang’s goals and strategy. Relatively overlooked...
CMSI Note #4: Deck Cargo Ships: Another Option for a Cross-Strait Invasion
CMSI Perspectives and Key Take-Aways: In addition to RO-RO ferries, the PLA also uses another class of RO-RO ship, the deck cargo ship, in sea transport training exercises. Deck cargo ships are widely used in China’s ocean engineering and construction industry, constituting an existing and large-scale volume of lift capacity. The simple design and relative ease of construction of deck cargo ships means they can quickly be built in large numbers. These vessels may be tasked to bring in large columns of logistics and follow-on forces to consolidate landing areas, possibly in waves not far behind landing assault forces. Deck cargo ships can distribute the risk for many units making transits and force an adversary to find suitable kill solutions to strike numerous lower value targets. Publisher China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S Naval War College Keywords China, PRC, China Maritime Studies Institute, CMSI, People’s Liberation Army, People’s Liberation Army Navy, PLAN, deck cargo ships, roll-on/roll-off Recommended Citation Kennedy, Conor M.,
Feb. 14, 2024 - CMSI Perspectives and Key Take-Aways: In addition to RO-RO ferries, the PLA also uses another class of RO-RO ship, the deck cargo ship, in sea transport training exercises. Deck cargo ships are widely used in China’s ocean...
The Mixed Message About China's Economy
Chinese Premier Li Qiang spoke this week at the World Economic Forum in Switzerland, saying the Chinese economy was doing just fine. Signals out of Beijing have been conveying a different message. SHEENA CHESTNUT GREITENS: So I think that the idea that economic growth created the basis for stability for the Chinese Communist Party was the conventional wisdom, and I think that was the conventional wisdom until pretty recently. So he's actually inverted the cause and effect in that relationship. https://www.npr.org/2024/01/19/1225721116/the-mixed-message-about-chinas-economy
Feb. 8, 2024 - Chinese Premier Li Qiang spoke this week at the World Economic Forum in Switzerland, saying the Chinese economy was doing just fine. Signals out of Beijing have been conveying a different message.SHEENA CHESTNUT GREITENS: So...
Assessing the Outcome of Taiwan's Presidential Election | 2024 Elections to Watch
On January 13 Taiwanese voters headed to the polls, where they elected William Lai to serve as president. Carnegie Asia Program non-resident scholar Sheena Greitens breaks down the results of the election and the various issues at play. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-v5HIuJLmvI
Jan. 18, 2024 - On January 13 Taiwanese voters headed to the polls, where they elected William Lai to serve as president. Carnegie Asia Program non-resident scholar Sheena Greitens breaks down the results of the election and the various...
New Leaders in “National” Security after China’s 20th Party Congress
National Security after China’s 20th Party Congress: Trends in Discourse and Policy (prcleader.org) Sheena Chestnut Greitens Aug 29, 2023 National Security after China’s 20th Party Congress: Trends in Discourse and Policy The 20th Party Congress in October 2022 affirmed the centrality of Xi Jinping’s vision of national (or state) security in Chinese domestic and foreign policy. Trends in national security discourse and policy at the start of Xi’s third term indicate that Chinese leaders continue to emphasize elements of the “comprehensive national security concept” framework established in 2014: the centrality of political/regime security, the interconnectedness of internal and external security threats, an emphasis on preventive solutions to security challenges, and the need to deepen reforms in national security law, organization, and policy to address an increasingly challenging security environment. At the same time, evolution is observable in four key areas of China’s national security policy: the changing prioritization of security vs. development; an enhanced focus on state security and counter-espionage work; emphasis on strengthening national security education; and efforts to harness foreign policy to shape China’s external environment in ways that are favorable to regime security. Background image from article: https://www.prcleader.org/post/national-security-after-china-s-20th-party-congress-trends-in-discourse-and-policy
Nov. 30, 2023 - Sheena Chestnut Greitens | The 20th Party Congress in October 2022 affirmed the centrality of Xi Jinping’s vision of national (or state) security in Chinese domestic and foreign policy. Trends in national security discourse...
China Maritime Report No. 32: The PCH191 Modular Long-Range Rocket Launcher: Reshaping the PLA Army's Role in a Cross-Strait Campaign
Nov. 15, 2023 - With its fielding of the PCH191 multiple rocket launcher (MRL) and its variety of long-range precision munitions, the PLA Army (PLAA) has become arguably the most important contributor of campaign and tactical firepower...
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