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Will Assad’s Defeat be Putin’s Waterloo?
Will Assad’s defeat be Putin’s Waterloo? | John R. Deni The Assad regime in Syria has become a casualty of Moscow’s increasingly desperate efforts in Ukraine, and its collapse is a strategic and operational blow that undermines the narrative of Russia as ascendant, Kyiv as doomed, and Vladimir Putin as strategic mastermind.
Dec. 10, 2024 - The narrative of Russia’s ascendancy in 2024 is beginning to look like more fiction than fact. The Assad regime in Syria has become a casualty of Moscow’s increasingly desperate efforts in Ukraine, and its collapse is a...
China’s Summit Diplomacy: Insights From BRICS, APEC and the G20
China’s Summit Diplomacy: Insights From BRICS, APEC and the G20 | R. Evan Ellis
Nov. 26, 2024 - From late October through mid-November, China’s President Xi Jinping held high-profile engagements in three very different major international forums: the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia; the APEC Leadership Forum in Lima,...
Challenges and Opportunities for U.S.-Mexico Security Cooperation
Challenges and Opportunities for US-Mexico Security Cooperation | R. Evan Ellis
Nov. 26, 2024 - While policy clashes between the elected governments of Mexico and the United States in the coming years appear likely, the degree to which those tensions degrade the commercial relationship and security cooperation that is...
Opidata #8: The BRICS Summit, China, and the Emerging Illiberal Counter-Order
Opidata #8: The BRICS Summit, China, and the Emerging Illiberal Counter-Order | Dr. R. Evan Ellis The 2024 BRICS summit in Kazan solidified an anti-liberal «counter-order,» challenging the rules-based international system. With its expansion to 23 members, the bloc, financially led by China, seeks to evade global restrictions and advance its agendas, though it faces coordination challenges and diverse objectives among its members. The October 2024 BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, in which the body expanded its membership from 10 to 23, is the most concrete expression of an emerging, if nebulous illiberal resistance to the rules-based international order that has created the basis for international economic and technological progress and democracy since the second World War.
Nov. 14, 2024 - The 2024 BRICS summit in Kazan solidified an anti-liberal «counter-order,» challenging the rules-based international system. With its expansion to 23 members, the bloc, financially led by China, seeks to evade global...
Security Challenges in the Dutch Caribbean
Security Challenges in the Dutch Caribbean | R. Evan Ellis This work examines security challenges facing the Dutch Caribbean, including narcotrafficking and other forms of organized crime, money laundering, Venezuelan and other refugee flows, and the little-understood activities of criminal groups operating within the region’s Chinese minority communities. It also examines the successes and challenges in coordination between law enforcement and other government entities in the Dutch Caribbean, and between the Dutch Caribbean and the European Netherlands, with the French, English and Spanish-speaking Caribbean, and with the range of other states and actors in the region. This work recommends that both the U.S. and Dutch government pay more attention to the challenges of the Caribbean part of the Kingdom of the Netherlands, and more fully take advantage of opportunities to work together more closely in addressing those challenges, and also in leveraging the lessons of good governance in the region, as they wrestle with difficulties elsewhere in the Caribbean. Keywords: Dutch Caribbean, Netherlands, narcotrafficking, Venezuela, money laundering, organized crime. Image from article: https://ceeep.mil.pe/2024/11/07/desafios-de-seguridad-en-el-caribe-holandes/?lang=en
Nov. 12, 2024 - This work examines security challenges facing the Dutch Caribbean, including narcotrafficking and other forms of organized crime, money laundering, Venezuelan and other refugee flows, and the little-understood activities of...
Paraguay’s Security Challenges and the Government Response
R. Evan Ellis for CEEP The article analyzes the security challenges in Paraguay and the government response under the administration of Santiago Peña. It argues that Paraguay, despite its strategic location and regional relevance, faces serious security problems due to organized crime, corruption and its role as a transit point for drugs and weapons. The country also serves as a hub for Hezbollah operations in the region. Keywords: Paraguay, security, organized crime, corruption, drug trafficking, Hezbollah.
Oct. 28, 2024 - This article analyzes the security challenges in Paraguay and the government response under the administration of Santiago Peña. It argues that Paraguay, despite its strategic location and regional relevance, faces serious...
Chile’s Expanding Defense Relationship with China
From September 9-14, 2024, Chilean Defense Minister Maya Fernandez Allende, granddaughter of Chile’s first socialist president Salvador Allende, traveled to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to attend the 11th annual Xiangshan Defense Forum in Beijing.  The meeting, the most significant event of People’s Liberation Army (PLA) global defense “diplomacy” during the year, was attended by over 500 representatives from more than 90 countries, including 30 Defense Ministers. While there, presumably following many positive encounters and generous PLA hospitality and a meeting with PLA Defense Minister Dong Jun, Minister Fernandez publicly proclaimed her interest in reviving closer Chile-PLA defense cooperation.  Her statement, which included the intention to re-activate a previously established PRC-Chile Joint Working Commission. Photo of Chilean President Gabriel Boric meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Bangkok on Friday. Image via @gabrielboric and sourced from article. (https://chinayamericalatina.com/la-creciente-relacion-de-chile-con-china-en-materia-de-defensa/)
Oct. 18, 2024 - From September 9-14, 2024, Chilean Defense Minister Maya Fernandez Allende, granddaughter of Chile’s first socialist president Salvador Allende, traveled to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to attend the 11th annual...
Understanding the PRC’s Selective Use of Military Hotlines
Executive Summary: The PRC’s strategic use of and reluctance to establish military hotlines reflect a calculated approach to escalation risk, which can be seen in crises ranging from the accidental bombing of its embassy in Belgrade in 1999 to the present day. There is a recognition that hotlines offer tactical benefits, but they are not viewed as a solution to Image source: Xi Jinping met with representatives of the 78th Group Army officers and soldiers, via qstheory from article (https://jamestown.org/program/understanding-the-prcs-selective-use-of-military-hotlines/)
Oct. 4, 2024 - Executive Summary: The PRC’s strategic use of and reluctance to establish military hotlines reflect a calculated approach to escalation risk, which can be seen in crises ranging from the accidental bombing of its embassy in...
Ukraine in NATO: Beyond the ‘Irreversible Path’
Whether and how NATO might pull Ukraine closer attracted a great deal of attention at the 2024 Washington summit, with the Alliance settling on the formulation of an ‘irreversible path’ towards Kyiv’s membership and pledging to further institutionalise the NATO–Ukraine relationship. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00396338.2024.2403220
Sept. 20, 2024 - Whether and how NATO might pull Ukraine closer attracted a great deal of attention at the 2024 Washington summit, with the Alliance settling on the formulation of an ‘irreversible path’ towards Kyiv’s membership and pledging...
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