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Venezuela’s Elections: Hoping for the Best, Preparing for the Worst
Venezuela's Elections: Hoping for the Best, Preparing for the Worst - R. Evan Ellis As Venezuela moves toward promised national elections on July 28, my heart is with the hopes of Venezuelans for a miracle that will translate their courageous act of voting, into a restoration of democracy. Everything I have seen unfold in the country over the past 25 years of my career in government and the private sector following Venezuela leads me to expect the worst. https://www.indrastra.com/2024/07/venezuelas-elections-hoping-for-best.html
July 25, 2024 - As Venezuela moves toward promised national elections on July 28, my heart is with the hopes of Venezuelans for a miracle that will translate their courageous act of voting, into a restoration of democracy. Everything I have...
China, the Illiberal Counter-Order, and the Role of Values in the Strategic Response
China, the Illiberal Counter-Order, and the Role of Values in the Strategic Response R. Evan Ellis https://gordoninstitute.fiu.edu/news-events/the-policy-spotlight/2024/china-the-illiberal-counter-order-and-the-role-of-values-in-the-strategic-response.html
July 22, 2024 - The dynamics of the international order in the third decade of the 21st Century are changing profoundly.  The magnitude and complexity of the change are illustrated by Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine, in both its initial...
Engagement with China has had a Multifaceted Impact on Latin American Democracy
R. Evan Ellis Background photo by AP Ng Han Guan, Pool, reposted from article (https://thediplomat.com/2024/07/engagement-with-china-has-had-a-multifaceted-impact-on-latin-american-democracy)
July 15, 2024 - While Beijing may not deliberately promote authoritarian regimes in Latin America, implicit risks to the dynamics of democracies arise out of engagement with China.In its public discourse, unlike the Soviet Union during the...
NATO’s in Denial about Deterrence by Denial
NATO’s in Denial about Deterrence by Denial John R. Deni Published by POLITICO https://www.politico.eu/article/nato-us-army-chinese-government-defense-war-europe-allies-cold-war-russia-poland/
July 8, 2024 - Taking the necessary steps to fully operationalize deterrence by denial is critical — especially before a possible change in America’s relationship with NATO.Recent revelations that the Chinese government has been...
Paraguay’s Security Challenges and the Government Response
Paraguay’s Security Challenges and the Government Response R. Evan Ellis https://gordoninstitute.fiu.edu/news-events/the-policy-spotlight/2024/paraguays-security-challenges-and-the-government-response.html
July 8, 2024 - The land-locked South American country of Paraguay receives little attention in Washington D.C. relative to its strategic importance for the region and the U.S. It is larger than Germany, and like Germany, its impact, and the...
Russian Warships, Venezuelan Elections, and a Fabricated Crisis with Guyana in the Caribbean?
Russian Warships, Venezuelan Elections, and a Fabricated Crisis with Guyana in the Caribbean? R. Evan Ellis Published by Jack D. Gordon Institute for Public Policy at Florida International University https://gordoninstitute.fiu.edu/news-events/the-policy-spotlight/2024/russian-warships-venezuelan-elections-and-a-fabricated-crisis-with-guyana-in-the-caribbean.html Background photo of Russian warship in the Caribbean from FIU article link, originally sourced from The New York Times, June 6, 2024 (https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/12/world/americas/russia-cuba-navy-exercies.html)
June 17, 2024 - The deployment of Russian warships to the Caribbean is Kabuki theater.  For 15 years, a Russia whose international power projection capabilities have deteriorated significantly since the end of the Cold War has periodically...
Playing Both Sides of the U.S.-Chinese Rivalry
On a visit to Budapest in late February, China’s minister of public security, Wang Xiaohong, secured a face-to-face meeting with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban to establish a new bilateral security arrangement. China and Hungary agreed to cooperate on law enforcement, policing, and counterterrorism, putting security ties at the center of their relationship. In many ways, it was a puzzling agreement, since Hungary is already a member of a security alliance—NATO—that protects it from armed attack. But Budapest’s pursuit of security relationships with both Beijing and Washington is a notable example of a global trend. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/playing-both-sides-us-chinese-rivalry Composite images from Unsplash (USA Flag: https://unsplash.com/photos/flag-of-america-E4hWWoTTtxw, China flag: https://unsplash.com/photos/red-national-flag-jL0tMFYOdBM, Storm: https://unsplash.com/photos/black-and-white-clouds-during-daytime-qcpAMjzX4BI)
May 29, 2024 - Why Countries Get External Security from Washington—and Internal Security from BeijingOn a visit to Budapest in late February, China’s minister of public security, Wang Xiaohong, secured a face-to-face meeting with Hungarian...
The New NATO Force Model: Ready For Launch?
The New NATO Force Model: Ready For Launch? | John R. Deni Published by NATO NATO Allies are in the process of a dramatic change to the Alliance’s force structure, which will see the NATO Response Force (NRF) replaced with a three tiered structure of Allied forces, to include an Allied Reaction Force (ARF), all of which is designed to better defend and deter. This new NATO Force Model faces a variety of challenges. To avoid the potential pitfalls and ensure the Alliance fulfils its own vision, NATO and its member nations ought to consider an array of mitigating steps, such as using snap exercises and inspection visits to ensure forces are indeed manned, trained and equipped, and emphasizing mass and capacity in Allied acquisition plans and capability targets. https://www.ndc.nato.int/news/news.php?icode=1937# Background image composite of pages from the publication NATO (https://www.ndc.nato.int/news/news.php?icode=1937#)
May 28, 2024 - Allies are in the process of a dramatic change to the Alliance’s force structure, which will see the NATO Response Force (NRF) replaced with a three tiered structure of Allied forces, to include an Allied Reaction Force...
China-Argentina Space Engagement
This work examines China - Argentine Space Collaboration, with a focus on the PRC Operated Deep Space Radar Facility in Neuquén. It argues that in interest of national development, and in the context of hopes for benefit from Argentina’s broader relationship with China, in an era of less pronounced strategic competition between the PRC and the U.S., the prior Peronist government off Cristina Fernández de Kirchner made contractual commitments that provide limited benefits to Argentina, undercut national sovereignty, and create risks of PRC use of Argentine national territory for military purposes against the West in time of war. Argentine governments have worked professionally within significant constraints of a lack of regular access to the facility, to provide technical oversight. The Center-right governments of both Mauricio Macri and Javier Milei have made heightened efforts at control, but have been impeded by the details of the contract signed by the prior Fernández government and the difficulty in making current policy decisions about possible future PRC behavior regarding the military use of PC-operated space facilities in Argentina. The case study also showcases a broader set of risks and dilemmas for other governments in the region tempted to leverage PRC interest in engagement in the space domain to further real and symbolic national technical development. Key Words People´s Republic of China (PRC), Argentina, Space Cooperation, Deep-Space Radar, Neuquén. Read the article: https://chinayamericalatina.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/WP40-May-2024-REDCAEM.pdf Background photo of China and Argentina’s deep space ground station antennas from Wikimedia, April, 2022 (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Estaci%C3%B3n_de_Espacio_Profundo_de_la_CLTC-CONAE-NEUQUEN_en_abril_2022_02.jpg)
May 23, 2024 - This work examines China - Argentine Space Collaboration, with a focus on the PRC Operated Deep Space Radar Facility in Neuquén. It argues that in interest of national development, and in the context of hopes for benefit...
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