Recent Publications

2023 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment
August 24, 2023 — The United States operates within a global context that is increasingly complex, interconnected, and unpredictable. The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment serves as a guide to define broadly the contemporary security landscape and the diverse range of interests that shape our national security agenda... MORE

2023 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment
The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment serves as a guide for academics and practitioners in the defense community on the current challenges and opportunities in the strategic environment. This year’s publication outlines key strategic issues across the four broad themes of Regional Challenges and Opportunities, Domestic Challenges, Institutional Challenges, and Domains Impacting US Strategic Advantage. These themes represent a wide range of topics affecting national security and provide a global assessment of the strategic environment to help focus the defense community on research and publication. Strategic competition with the People’s Republic of China and the implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine remain dominant challenges to US national security interests across the globe. However, the evolving security environment also presents new and unconventional threats, such as cyberattacks, terrorism, transnational crime, and the implications of rapid technological advancements in fields such as artificial intelligence. At the same time, the US faces domestic and institutional challenges in the form of recruiting and retention shortfalls in the all-volunteer force, the prospect of contested logistics in large-scale combat operations, and the health of the US Defense Industrial Base. Furthermore, rapidly evolving security landscapes in the Arctic region and the space domain pose unique potential challenges to the Army’s strategic advantage.
https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/962/

Change and Innovation in the Institutional Army from 1860–2020
August 23, 2023 — This episode showcases the understudied institutional Army, the generating force, as a critical prerequisite for overall strategic success. Competition, crisis, and conflict require more than the manned, trained, and equipped units that deploy. This podcast analyzes six case studies of institutional Army reforms over 160 years to examine adaptation in peace and war. The conclusions provide historical insights to inform current practices and fulfill the Army’s articulated 2022 Institutional Strategy... MORE

AY24 Campaign Planning Handbook
August 22, 2023 — The purpose of this document is to assist United States Army War College students during the Military Strategy and Campaigning (MSC) course. It also serves to assist commanders, planners, and other staff officers in combatant commands (CCMD), joint task forces (JTF), and service component commands. It supplements joint doctrine and contains elements of emerging doctrine as practiced globally by joint force commanders (JFCs)... MORE

CAMPAIGN PLANNING HANDBOOK Academic Year 2024

The Ethics of Trusting AI
August 15, 2023 — Based on the monograph Trusting AI: Integrating Artificial Intelligence into the Army’s Professional Expert Knowledge and the Parameters article “Minotaurs, Not Centaurs: The Future of Manned-Unmanned Teaming,” this episode focuses on the ethics of trusting AI. Who is responsible when something goes wrong? When is it okay for AI to make command decisions? How can humans and machines... MORE

Fernando Villavicencio and the Self-Destructive Collaboration between China and Populist Regimes
August 15, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis Mexico’s relationship with China has always been complicated. Although Chinese migrants formed an important part in Mexico’s national story, the perceived “otherness” of the Chinese community and competition for work led to occasional violence against ethnic Chinese. With the contemporary expansion of the PRC economy, the position of... MORE

Fernando Villavicencio and the Self-Destructive Collaboration between China and Populist Regimes
R. Evan Ellis

Mexico’s Engagement with China and Choices for its Future
August 11, 2023 — R. Evan EllisAs Mexico looks to national elections in June 2024, the expanding engagement that the country is backing into with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) will have profound implications for the country’s future, as well as the United States and the rest of the region.BackgroundMexico’s relationship with China has always been complicated... MORE

"Innovation, Flexibility, and Adaptation: Keys to Patton’s Information Dominance"
August 8, 2023 — In 1944, Third US Army created a cohesive and flexible system for managing information and denying it to the enemy that aligned operational concepts with technological capabilities. The organization’s success in the European Theater highlights its effective combined arms integration. An examination of the historical record shows the creative design of the Signal Intelligence and Army Information Services enabled Third Army to deliver information effects consistently and provides a useful model for considering the dynamics at play in fielding new and experimental multidomain effects formations. ... MORE

PRC Engagement in The Bahamas
August 2, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis Introduction In his March 2023 annual posture statement to the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee, head of U.S. Northern Command General Glen VanHerck referred to the substantial commercial and other presence of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in the Bahamas as “efforts to gain a foothold only 50 miles from the U.S. East... MORE

PRC Engagement in The Bahamas
R. Evan Ellis
China, South & Latin America, SSI Worldwide

"The Strategic Importance of Taiwan to the United States and Its Allies"
July 31, 2023 — This podcast presents four factors to consider in evaluating Taiwan’s strategic importance to the United States and its allies and answers a question often raised at forums concerning the Indo-Pacific: “Why should the United States care” about this small island in the Pacific? The response often given is simply US credibility, and while this is an important factor, this podcast reviews a wider array of possible factors to consider when answering that question. The study of these factors should assist US military and policy practitioners in accurately evaluating the related strategic environment... MORE

PacNet #49 – China’s military engagements with Cuba: Implications of a strategic advance in Latin America
July 30, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis In June 2023, The Wall Street Journal reported that the People’s Republic of China has heavily invested in a cash-strapped Cuba in exchange for access to an electronic intelligence collection (ELINT) facility, and negotiated an agreement to train Chinese soldiers on the north side of the island. These developments have been met with... MORE

The Good Captain: A Personal Memoir of America at War
July 21, 2023 — Strategic Leadership Book Review: The Good Captain: A Personal Memoir of America at War Author: R. D. Hooker Jr. | Reviewed by Joseph J. Collins, PhD, retired US Army colonel | Retired Army colonel Rich Hooker’s The Good Captain is a memoir spanning the Cold War through the Global War on Terror. Hooker’s deployments take up the bulk of the book... MORE

Corruption in the Americas
July 21, 2023 — Regional Studies Book Review: Corruption in the Americas Ryan Orsini Editors: Jonathan D. Rosen and Hanna S. Kassab | Reviewed by Dr. José de Arimatéia da Cruz, professor of international relations and comparative politics, Georgia Southern University, and visiting professor, Center for Strategic Leadership, US Army War College | Jonathan D... MORE