Recent Publications

"Deterring Russian Nonstrategic Nuclear Weapons A Revised Approach"
December 7, 2023 — A change in deterrence thought and strategy is necessary to avoid nuclear escalation in armed conflict with Russia. Traditional threat-based deterrence strategies will not be successful, and a new strategy must address the conditions that might cause Russian leadership to employ nuclear weapons. An examination of the Able Archer 83 exercise using an original framework highlights the ways Russian interests ... MORE

SSI Live 104 – Implications of Milei’s Election in Argentina –
December 5, 2023 — Libertarian Javier Milei recently won a landslide victory in Argentina’s presidential election on a platform of radical reform designed to solve the country’s major economic challenges. How did Milei pull it off? What came out of his post-election trip to the United States? How likely is he to achieve his policy aims at home and abroad? And what are the implications for the U.S.-Argentinian security relationship?... MORE

Americans and the Dragon: Lessons in Coalition Warfighting from the Boxer Uprising
December 5, 2023 — Drawing from archival materials at the US Army Heritage and Education Center and the United States Military Academy at West Point, numerous published primary sources, and a range of secondary sources, this monograph offers an overview of the China Relief Expedition from June 1900 to the moment of liberation in August. Its considerations range from the geopolitical to the strategic... MORE

Would Venezuela Really Invade Essequibo?
December 4, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis | In the context of unfolding global conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine and the dangers of an increasingly aggressive yet economically fragile People’s Republic of China (PRC), Venezuela’s provocative referendum on its claim to two thirds of the territory of neighboring Guyana has received understandably little attention in... MORE

By R. Evan Ellis
In the context of unfolding global conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine and the dangers of an increasingly aggressive yet economically fragile People’s Republic of China (PRC), Venezuela’s provocative referendum on its claim to two thirds of the territory of neighboring Guyana has received understandably little attention in Washington, D.C.
Original background image from article: https://theglobalamericans.org/2023/11/would-venezuela-really-invade-essequibo/

How to stop Ukraine’s NATO bid from derailing Washington summit
December 4, 2023 — John R. Deni for POLITICO | It’s time to tear up the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act. John R. Deni is a research professor at the U.S. Army War College’s Strategic Studies Institute. He’s the author of “NATO and Article 5.” The views expressed are his own.Marking the 75th anniversary of NATO’s founding, the alliance’s next summit in Washington is... MORE

How to stop Ukraine’s NATO bid from derailing Washington summit
by John R. Deni
Marking the 75th anniversary of NATO’s founding, the alliance’s next summit in Washington is just months away, and allies are eagerly preparing the agenda.

This time around, several member countries are keen to avoid the kind of divisive discussions over Ukraine’s path to membership that publicly played out at last year’s summit in Vilnius — and none more so than hosting nation the United States.

Background image from https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ukraine_%E2%80%93_NATO_Commission_chaired_by_Petro_Poroshenko_(2017-07-10)_48.jpg

Ukraine's Lessons for Future Combat: Unmanned Aerial Systems and Deep Strike
November 30, 2023 — The Russia-Ukraine War holds many lessons for the US Army and American policymakers and leaders on the nature and role of reconnaissance-strike complexes in modern combat, especially Ukraine’s development of a battle-management system that uses unmanned aerial systems and satellite reconnaissance to enable the fire coordination for deep strikes into the enemy rear. In the research presented here ... MORE

New Leaders in “National” Security after China’s 20th Party Congress
November 30, 2023 — Sheena Chestnut Greitens | The 20th Party Congress in October 2022 affirmed the centrality of Xi Jinping’s vision of national (or state) security in Chinese domestic and foreign policy. Trends in national security discourse and policy at the start of Xi’s third term indicate that Chinese leaders continue to emphasize elements of the “comprehensive... MORE

National Security after China’s 20th Party Congress: Trends in Discourse and Policy (prcleader.org) | Sheena Chestnut Greitens

“Was the Russian Invasion of Ukraine a Failure of Western Deterrence?"
November 22, 2023 — In February 2022, many observers initially evaluated the Russian invasion of Ukraine as a failure of Western deterrence. That assessment was and is flawed inasmuch as the West never articulated a clear strategy to deter such an invasion. Engaging with relevant conceptual debates about how deterrence works and relating this information to what the West did and did not do in the run-up to the invasion, this article shows that... MORE

War of Supply
November 22, 2023 — Book Review: War of Supply Author: David D. Dworak | Reviewed by Dr. John A. Bonin, consultant, US Army War College | The reviewer notes, “While there are thousands of books about World War II, there are relatively few on the war in the Mediterranean and fewer on its logistics.” Dworak provides just that, with a chronological account of Operation... MORE

Book Review: War of Supply
John A. Bonin
Author: David D. Dworak
Reviewed by Dr. John A. Bonin, consultant, US Army War College
The reviewer notes, “While there are thousands of books about World War II, there are relatively few on the war in the Mediterranean and fewer on its logistics.” Dworak provides just that, with a chronological account of Operation Torch in North Africa; Operations Husky, Avalanche, and Shingle in Sicily and Italy; and Operation Dragoon in southern France.
https://press.armywarcollege.edu/parameters_bookshelf/30

Blood and Ruins: The Last Imperial War, 1931–1945
November 22, 2023 — Book Review: Blood and Ruins: The Last Imperial War, 1931–1945 Author: Richard Overy | Reviewed by Jonathan Klug, colonel, US Army, and assistant professor, Department of Military Strategy, Planning, and Operations, US Army War College | Many track the start of World War II to Poland in 1939. In Blood Ruins, Richard Overy contends the 1931 Japanese... MORE

Book Review: Blood and Ruins: The Last Imperial War, 1931–1945
Jonathan Klug
Author: Richard Overy
Reviewed by Jonathan Klug, colonel, US Army, and assistant professor, Department of Military Strategy, Planning, and Operations, US Army War College
Teaser: Many track the start of World War II to Poland in 1939. In Blood Ruins, Richard Overy contends the 1931 Japanese invasion of Manchuria was the start of an Asian war that later merged into the 1939 war in Europe when Japan attacked America in 1939. The book addresses policy and strategy as well as operational, technical, and tactical issues.
https://press.armywarcollege.edu/parameters_bookshelf/29

On The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment
November 22, 2023 — The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment serves as a guide for academics and practitioners in the defense community on the current challenges and opportunities in the strategic environment. This year’s publication outlines key strategic issues across the four broad themes of Regional Challenges and Opportunities, Domestic Challenges, Institutional Challenges, and Domains Impacting US Strategic... MORE

Bolivia’s Descent into Deep Chaos and the Implications for the Region
November 22, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis | The resource rich, land-locked South American nation of Bolivia has traditionally received limited attention from Washington. The country, historically mired in poverty, corruption, and cycles of political conflict is one of the hemisphere’s major sources for coca and illegally mined gold, as well as a transit country for both... MORE

The resource rich, land-locked South American nation of Bolivia has traditionally received limited attention from Washington. The country, historically mired in poverty, corruption, and cycles of political conflict is one of the hemisphere’s major sources for coca and illegally mined gold, as well as a transit country for both. Bolivia’s leftist populist Movement for Socialism (MAS) governments of Evo Morales and Luis Arce have made the country an important point of entry into the hemisphere for extra-hemispheric U.S. rivals including the People’s Republic of China, Russia, and Iran.
In recent weeks, a power struggle has emerged for control of the MAS between current President Luis Arce and former President Evo Morales. This has implications for the stability of the country as it plays out in the context of crosscutting political rivalries, economic difficulties, and a significant criminal economy with competing interests. This work examines the deteriorating situation in Bolivia and the potential implications for the region.
Image adapted from:
https://theglobalamericans.org/2023/11/bolivias-descent-into-deep-chaos-and-the-implications-for-the-region/