Recent Publications

The Strategic Importace of Tawian to the United States and Its Allies: Part Two
October 30, 2023 — Taiwan has become increasingly important to the United States and its allies as the Russia-Ukraine War has united democracies against authoritarian expansionism and indeed has developed an international democracy-authoritarianism dynamic in global affairs. Part one of this article clearly outlined the geopolitical, economic, and soft-power reasons why Taiwan is strategically important. Part two reviews the development... MORE

SSI Live 102 – Ellis on Elections in Argentina Ecuador Venezuela
October 30, 2023 — Implications of Elections in Argentina, Ecuador, and Venezuela – It’s election season in South America, and the outcomes in three key countries have somewhat surprised observers. The implications for Argentina’s flailing economy, the narcotics-fueled violence in Ecuador, and the flow of oil from Venezuela are numerous, but what do they mean for the United States and the Pentagon?... MORE

Comparing China’s Engagement in Africa and Latin America
October 21, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis | There are substantial commonalities in Beijing’s engagement between the two regions, but also differences that provide insights into how China-based entities make, and adapt, policies. On October 12-13, 2023, the Jack D. Gordon Institute of Florida International University (FIU) hosted an event bringing together Africa and Latin... MORE

Comparing China’s Engagement in Africa and Latin America
R. Evan Ellis
There are substantial commonalities in Beijing’s engagement between the two regions, but also differences that provide insights into how China-based entities make, and adapt, policies.
https://thediplomat.com/2023/10/comparing-chinas-engagement-in-africa-and-latin-america/

Image credits: Chinese flag from Pexels.com, world map overlay from FreePik.com

Security Challenges Facing the Dominican Republic and the Government Response
October 18, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis | From September 24-28, 2023, a trip was made to Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, to present a paper on crime and violence in the Caribbean at a forum organized by Funglode,[2] one of the country’s leading think tanks. As part of this visit, he held a dialogue with a wide range of former and current security personnel and other... MORE

Security Challenges Facing the Dominican Republic and the Government Response
R. Evan Ellis
ntroduction
From September 24-28, 2023, a trip was made to Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, to present a paper on crime and violence in the Caribbean at a forum organized by Funglode,[2] one of the country’s leading think tanks. As part of this visit, he held a dialogue with a wide range of former and current security personnel and other experts on the security challenges facing the nation.

The Dominican Republic’s economy, closely linked to that of the United States (U.S.) through geography, family ties and the Central America-Dominican Republic Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA-DR),[3] is one of the fastest growing in the region.[4] Despite the devastating impact of the COVID-19 pandemic,[5] tourism has recovered remarkably. The country has a vibrant democratic political culture and, unlike many of its Caribbean and Central American neighbors with whom it shares close linguistic and cultural ties, has managed to maintain significantly lower levels of violence and gang activity.

(https://ceeep.mil.pe/2023/10/18/retos-de-seguridad-a-los-que-se-enfrenta-la-republica-dominicana-y-la-respuesta-del-gobierno/?lang=en)

Background image credit: CEEP

The Origins of Victory: How Disruptive Military Innovation Determines the Fates of Great Powers
October 17, 2023 — Book Review: The Origins of Victory: How Disruptive Military Innovation Determines the Fates of Great Powers Author: Andrew F. Krepinevich Jr. | Reviewed by Zachery Tyson Brown, defense analyst, Office of the Secretary of Defense | Andrew F. Krepinevich has questions for policymakers when it comes to emerging technologies and warfare. In The... MORE

Book Review: The Origins of Victory: How Disruptive Military Innovation Determines the Fates of Great Powers
https://press.armywarcollege.edu/parameters_bookshelf/28
Author: Andrew F. Krepinevich Jr.
Reviewed by Zachery Tyson Brown, defense analyst, Office of the Secretary of Defense

Andrew F. Krepinevich has questions for policymakers when it comes to emerging technologies and warfare. In The Origins of Victory: How Disruptive Military Innovation Determines the Fates of Great Powers, Krepinevich asks: How do states gain advantages in military competition during periods of disruptive change? How are developmental technologies best incorporated into legacy military structures? Or are entirely new structures necessary?

Four Battlegrounds: Power in the Age of Artificial Intelligence
October 17, 2023 — Book Review: Four Battlegrounds: Power in the Age of Artificial Intelligence Author: Paul Scharre| Reviewed by Dr. Robert J. Bunker, director of research and analysis, managing partner, C/O Futures, LLC | Award-winning author Paul Scharre’s latest work, Four Battlegrounds: Power in the Age of Artificial Intelligence, envisions artificial... MORE

Book Review: Four Battlegrounds: Power in the Age of Artificial Intelligence
https://press.armywarcollege.edu/parameters_bookshelf/27

Author: Paul Scharre

Reviewed by Dr. Robert J. Bunker, director of research and analysis, managing partner, C/O Futures, LLC

TEASER: Award-winning author Paul Scharre’s latest work, Four Battlegrounds: Power in the Age of Artificial Intelligence, envisions artificial intelligence as ushering in a “new industrial revolution” with big military, economic, and political implications. The reviewer sees this “readable, tightly structured” book as “fascinating and important work from a US national security studies perspective” and “after-hours supplemental reading for US military and policy professionals who want to understand the political-military importance of AI and its strategic (in fact, civilizational) implications for the future.”

US-Russia Foreign Policy: Confronting Russia’s Geographic Anxieties
October 16, 2023 — The United States must place Russia’s focus on geographic concerns at the center of future strategy development to build a constructive relationship with Russia and achieve US regional goals. This article analyzes Russia’s geography and historical impact on Russian foreign policy, outlines Moscow’s current foreign policy goals, and highlights underlying concerns for US policymakers and military practitioners... MORE

Implications of the Hamas Terror Attacks and the Israeli Response on Latin America and the Global Strategic Environment
October 13, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis | My heart goes out to the almost 1,000 Israelis brutally slaughtered by Hamas on October 7, 2023, terrorist attacks this week. Few not actually living this moment in Israel, and certainly not me, can truly understand the grief and outrage that Hamas’ acts of depravity have sparked among Israelis. A nation forged from history’s most... MORE

Evan Ellis - Implications of the Hamas Terror Attacks and the Israeli Response on Latin America and the Global Strategic Environment
(for IndraStra at https://www.indrastra.com/2023/10/implications-of-hamas-terror-attacks.html)

Expert Analysis on Latest Attacks in Ukraine
October 6, 2023 — John R. Deni | Military expert John Deni talks to CNN's Laila Harrak about Russian attacks on civilians, and the question of U.S. aid.Watch the video here: Expert analysis on latest attacks in Ukraine | CNN (https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2023/10/07/exp-ukraine-laila-guest-fst-100702aseg1.cnn)CNN Host Laila Guest interviews John R. Deni on the... MORE

Expert Analysis on Latest Attacks in Ukraine
US Army War College | Strategic Studies Institute

Military expert John Deni talks to CNN's Laila Harrak about Russian attacks on civilians, and the question of U.S. aid.
Expert analysis on latest attacks in Ukraine | CNN (https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2023/10/07/exp-ukraine-laila-guest-fst-100702aseg1.cnn)

CNN Host Laila Guest interviews John R. Deni on the current situation in Ukraine.

Photo is a screenshot of the CNN interview.

The Chechen Kadyrovtsy’s Coercive Violence in Ukraine
October 5, 2023 — Chechnya is a region of the Russian Federation, and its native Chechen society is Islamic and tribal, which is very different from Russia's Orthodox and non-tribal society. In the 1990s, Chechnya tried to cede from Russia in the context of the wider Soviet collapse, and Russia waged two wars to try and prevent this. Chechnya won de facto independence in the first war, but Russia would later reinvade and win the second war, where they installed the Kadyrov family as the local collaborator regime to rule this region. ... MORE

The Impact of the Turn to the Left on the Advance of the People’s Republic of China in Latin
October 5, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis | This work uses the comparative method, complemented by quantitative data, to examine engagement by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in Latin America as a function of government type, across a range of activities, including trade, investment, infrastructure projects, security relations, and technical architectures over the past... MORE

R. Evan Ellis
This work uses the comparative method, complemented by quantitative data, to examine engagement by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in Latin America as a function of government type, across a range of activities, including trade, investment, infrastructure projects, security relations, and technical architectures over the past two decades. The findings indicate that the PRC establishes distinct and often broader forms of engagement with populist, anti-US governments, although this does not necessarily translate into a higher volume of PRC investment or overall trade with those governments. This is the first major work in the growing China–Latin America literature to explicitly analyze the dynamics of PRC engagement across regime type. It contributes to strategic analysis of the PRC challenge in the region by the operational force, including the identification of risks, and the formulation of responses, including credible messaging, in support of a coordinated whole-of-government response to the PRC challenge.

Read now: The Impact of the Turn to the Left on the Advance of the People’s Republic of China in Latin

Image adapted from FreePik (https://www.freepik.com/free-vector/coronavirus-map_7456298.htm)

A Call to Action: Lessons from Ukraine for the Future Force
September 29, 2023 — Fifty years ago, the US Army faced a strategic inflection point after a failed counterinsurgency effort in Vietnam. In response to lessons learned from the Yom Kippur War, the United States Army Training and Doctrine Command was created to reorient thinking and doctrine around the conventional Soviet threat. Today’s Army must embrace the Russo-Ukrainian conflict as an opportunity to reorient the force into one as forward-thinking and formidable as the Army that won Operation Desert Storm. This article suggests changes the Army should make to enable success in multidomain large-scale combat operations at today’s strategic inflection point... MORE