Recent Publications

Yes, Russia Might Invade a NATO Country. Here’s How the Alliance Should Prepare.
June 1, 2022 — Dr. John R. Deni, 2022 in PoliticoRussia’s invasion has been a wake-up call: It’s time for NATO allies to get back to basics.Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has triggered a careful balancing act on the part of NATO allies, who are eager to see Russia fail but also unwilling to jump into the war directly. This reflects the same challenge that has... MORE

Russian President Putin (from Wikipedia)

Yes, the United States Should Weaken Russia
May 27, 2022 — The old approach of outreach and inclusion has failed. In the wake of Russia’s latest invasion, Washington must seek to erode Moscow’s power.Dr. John R. Deni, 2022 in Foreign Policy Following a recent visit to Kyiv, Ukraine, with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the United States wanted “to see Russia... MORE

NATO Must Prepare to Defend Its Weakest Point—the Suwalki Corridor
May 27, 2022 — On the Polish-Lithuanian border, the West must respond to Russia’s actual capabilities rather than making assumptions about its intent.Dr. John R. Deni, 2022 in Foreign Policy As the Biden administration monitors Moscow’s reaction to dramatic U.S. and allied increases in assistance to Ukraine as well as the punishing Western economic and financial... MORE

“Putin’s Invasion of Ukraine in 2022: Implications for Strategic Studies”
May 26, 2022 — This podcast examines critical issues for the field of strategic studies raised by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, including the waning of major war, strategic coercion, and “War Amongst the People.” Drawing on previous scholarship and current events, this commentary considers the questions raised by the first major war of the twenty-first century. It provides recommendations for scholars and senior leaders on how to work together to address the questions of strategy and policy that have and continue to arise as the war progresses. ... MORE

SSI Live 89 – China, Europe, and the Pandemic Recession: China’s Strategy Toward Europe
May 25, 2022 — This is the second podcast in a short series to launch a recently published multi-author study on China, Europe, and the Pandemic Recession: Beijing’s Investments and Transatlantic Security. In this podcast, contributing author Dr. Roger Cliff joins Dr. John R. Deni to discuss China’s strategy toward Europe. What does Beijing seek to get out of its... MORE

Toward a New Normal in Transatlantic Collective Defense
May 25, 2022 — With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in its third month, it is already possible to draw some important lessons from the most serious security crisis in Europe in decades.Dr. John R. Deni, 2022 in German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) It has fundamentally altered security on the continent, prompting a reappraisal of where and how NATO allies... MORE

The West Should Not Wish Away the Russian Threat Yet Again
May 25, 2022 — The time to institutionalize a muscular and ready front line force posture is now. Dr. John R. Deni and Christopher Skaluba, 2022 in Defense One The West’s initial response to Russia’s brutal, unprovoked invasion of Ukraine has been remarkably unified and effective. The multifaceted effort to arm Ukraine while reinforcing NATO allies in Eastern Europe has helped to turn the war’s tide and prevent, for now at least,... MORE

A Russian serviceman interacts with a bear at the zoo in Ukraine's port city of Mariupol on May 18, 2022, amid the ongoing Russian military action in Ukraine. AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES / OLGA MALTSEVA

Sourced from Defense One for use in "The West Should Not Wish Away the Russian Threat Yet Again" by John R. Deni https://ssi.army.afpims.mil/SSI-Media/Recent-Publications/ctl/ArticleEdit/mid/63305/Article/3508510/

“Information Warfare: Lessons in Inoculation to Disinformation”
May 23, 2022 — While propaganda and disinformation have been used to destabilize opposing forces throughout history, the US military remains unprepared for the way these methods have been adapted to the Internet era. This article explores the modern history of disinformation campaigns and the current state of US military readiness in the face of campaigns from near-peer competitors and proposes education as the best way to prepare US servicemembers to defend against such campaigns. ... MORE

China, Europe, and the Pandemic Recession: Beijing’s Investments and Transatlantic Security
May 22, 2022 — Dr. John R. Deni, 2022Given the depth and breadth of the pandemic-induced recession in Europe, private companies in need of capital and governments looking to shed state-owned enterprises may be tempted to sell shares, assets, or outright ownership to investors with liquidity to spare. Of greatest concern is the role that China might play in... MORE

China, Europe, and the Pandemic Recession: Beijing’s Investments and Transatlantic Security

Dr. John R. Deni, 2022
Given the depth and breadth of the pandemic-induced recession in Europe, private companies in need of capital and governments looking to shed state-owned enterprises may be tempted to sell shares, assets, or outright ownership to investors with liquidity to spare. Of greatest concern is the role that China might play in Europe, building Beijing’s soft power, weakening allied geopolitical solidarity, and potentially reprising the role it played in the 2010s, when its investments in Europe expanded dramatically.
https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/949/

SSI Live 88 – China, Europe, and the Pandemic Recession: COVID-19’s Economic Impact on Europe
May 19, 2022 — This is the first podcast in a short series to launch a recently published multi-author study on China, Europe, and the Pandemic Recession: Beijing’s Investments and Transatlantic Security. In this podcast, contributing author Dr. Mark Duckenfield joins Dr. John R. Deni to discuss the economic impact of COVID-19 on Europe. How does this crisis... MORE

“A Failure to Innovate: The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War”
May 16, 2022 — The root cause for the defeat of the Armenian forces in the second Nagorno-Karabakh War was flawed military doctrine inherited from the Soviet Union. This article analyzes the major problems faced by Armenia, uncovers the main reasons for unsuccessful innovation, tests empirical findings against some of the most authoritative theories... MORE

Would a Russian Coup Solve Anything?
May 13, 2022 — Putin’s successor would face the same political and geographic conditions that led him to confrontation. Dr. John R. Deni, 2022 in the Wall Street Journal Some Western observers hope Vladimir Putin will be overthrown in a coup. While the likelihood of such an event is debatable, one thing is certain: If Mr. Putin were removed in a coup, whoever replaces him would face the same domestic political incentives and disincentives, …... MORE

President of Russia Vladimir Putin at the military parade in Red Square, Moscow, to mark the 77th anniversary of Victory in the Great Patriotic War.