Recent Publications

"The Grand Strategic Thought of Colin S. Gray”
January 10, 2022 — A titan of modern strategic studies, Colin S. Gray distinguished himself from other scholars in the field with his belief that grand strategy is indispensable, complex, and inherently agential. This article identifies key themes, continuities, conceptual relationships, and potential discontinuities from his decades of grand strategic thought. Gray’s statement that “all strategy is grand strategy” remains highly relevant today, emphasizing the importance of agential context in military environments—a point often neglected in strategic practice. ... MORE

SSI Live 86 – Negotiating with Russia Over Ukraine
January 10, 2022 — Negotiations between Russia and the United States, NATO, and the OSCE regarding the situation in/around Ukraine begin this week. How should the West approach those negotiations? SSI Live host Dr. John R. Deni argues the West should strike a hard bargain, even if it risks war in Ukraine.Keywords: Russia, Ukraine, NATO, United States,... MORE

SSI Live 85 – Latin America’s Shift Left
January 7, 2022 — Recent elections in Honduras and Chile appear to indicate that left-leaning parties are on the rise across Latin America. Is this the case, and if so, what are the strategic implications for U.S. security? Dr. Evan Ellis, SSI’s Latin America expert, joined SSI Live host Dr. John R. Deni to discuss Latin America’s shift to the left.Keywords: Latin... MORE

“Defeat Mechanisms in Modern Warfare”
December 27, 2021 — This article explores the current debate about service and Joint operating concepts, starting with the Army’s multi-domain operations concept. It argues for adaptations to an old operational design technique—defeat mechanisms; updates to Joint and service planning doctrine; and discipline regarding emerging concepts. Rather than debate over attrition versus maneuver, combinations of a suite of defeat mechanisms should be applied to gain victory in the future. ... MORE

“Broken Nest- Deterring China from Invading Taiwan”
December 16, 2021 — Deterring a Chinese invasion of Taiwan without recklessly threatening a great-power war is both possible and necessary through a tailored deterrence package that goes beyond either fighting over Taiwan or abandoning it. This article joins cutting-edge understandings of deterrence with empirical evidence of Chinese strategic thinking and culture to build such a strategy... MORE

Parameters Winter 2021–22
November 22, 2021 — What Went Wrong in Afghanistan? | Broken Nest: Deterring China from Invading Taiwan | Sino-Indian Border Disputes in an Era of Strategic Expansions | Rethinking US Strategic Concepts | Defeat Mechanisms in Modern Warfare | The Air Littoral: Another Look In Tribute | The Grand Strategic Thought of Colin S. Gray | Sherman and His Historians: An End to the Outsized Destroyer Myth?... MORE

“Crisis Management Lessons from the Clinton Administration’s Implementation of Presidential Decision Directive 56”
October 12, 2021 — In the wake of the Battle of Mogadishu, Somalia, on October 3-4, 1993, in which 19 American servicemembers were killed and 73 injured, I was tasked to lead an effort to discern the strategic lessons to be learned from the ill-fated US intervention. The study highlighted several shortfalls: the absence of a clear US strategy and whole-of-government plan for the operation, the onset of mission creep as the operation evolved from a humanitarian mission... MORE

“The Battalion Commander Effect”
October 7, 2021 — Statistical evidence suggests that Army battalion commanders are significant determinants of the retention of their lieutenants—especially high-potential lieutenants. Further, this so-called Battalion Commander Effect should be included in brigadier general promotion board assessments and used to inform officer professional military education curricula. ... MORE

“Assessing Risk at the National Strategic Level- Visualization Tools for Military Planners”
October 6, 2021 — The reemergence of great power competition, conflict with near-peer competitor states below the level of armed conflict, and persisting threats from nonstate actors with transnational ambitions and global reach pose challenges for strategists planning, executing, and assessing military operations and strategy. Building on current visualization tools, two proposed models—the National Strategic Risk Abacus and the National Strategic Risk Radar Chart—address these challenges and better depict how the US military may inadvertently contribute to risk at the national strategic level. ... MORE

Great (Soft) Power Competition- US and Chinese Efforts in Global Health Engagement
October 1, 2021 — Global health engagement, an underutilized strategy rooted in the strengths of soft power persuasion, can lead to more military-to-military cooperation training, help establish relationships that can be relied on when crises develop, stabilize fragile states, and deny violent extremist organizations space for recruiting and operations. Examining Chinese efforts worldwide to curry favor and influence and the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, this article shows health as a medium is a very compelling and advantageous whole-of-government approach to national security policy concerns... MORE

“The Evolution of Hybrid Warfare- Implications for Strategy and the Military Profession”
September 29, 2021 — The concept of hybrid war has evolved from operational-level use of military means and methods in war toward strategic-level use of nonmilitary means in a gray zone below the threshold of war. This article considers this evolution and its implications for strategy and the military profession by contrasting past and current use of the hybrid war concept and raising critical questions for policy and military practitioners. ... MORE

“Reversing the Readiness Assumption- A Proposal for Fiscal and Military Fitness”
September 27, 2021 — Looming budget cuts will necessitate adept management to retain a military capable of competing and winning by avoiding the mistakes made in prior drawdowns. This article presents a framework for government and defense leaders to prepare for the coming drawdown and plan for the necessary capacity of tomorrow across the diplomatic, information, military, and economic framework. ... MORE