Recent Publications

“Integrated Planning and Campaigning for Complex Problems”
July 12, 2021 — Shortfalls and inefficiencies in traditional planning and campaigning have become increasingly clear in the current hyperconnected security environment. US military planners can mitigate these deficiencies by embracing integrated planning and campaigning approaches including the development of new organizational structures and processes. These improvements will give senior leaders increased options as the US military and US Allies and partners address complex problems with better effect and to greater advantage... MORE

“Toward Successful COIN- Shining Path’s Decline”
June 29, 2021 — The rapid decline of the Peruvian left-wing insurgent organization Sendero Luminoso was not only the result of the arrest of its leader. An analysis of the precipitous weakening of the organization using two social movement theories finds other factors were involved in the demise of the organization as well. These factors—participatory politics,... MORE

“COIN Doctrine Is Wrong”
June 28, 2021 — Counterinsurgency does not increase the legitimacy of, or support for, central governments engaged in internal conflicts. Recent research shows quantifiable degrees of government legitimacy, national identity, and population security are necessary precursors and accurate predictors of a government’s ability to outlast a civil uprising. Because the first two predictors—government legitimacy and national identity—can be measured and do not increase during a conflict... MORE

“JDN 2-19- Hitting the Target but Missing the Mark”
June 22, 2021 — Predoctrinal deliberations about the employment of the US armed forces, captured in Joint Doctrine Notes, remain critically understudied. Using comparative text analysis, this article identifies changes in recent Joint Doctrine Note depictions of military strategy. These changes risk distorting the logic of military strategy, sacrificing means-ends... MORE

“Matthew Ridgway and the Value of Persistent Dissent”
June 22, 2021 — Army General Matthew Ridgway’s actions throughout his career provide a valuable example of the appropriate time and place for serious dissent by military leaders. Ridgway demonstrated the importance of selectively and pragmatically expressing open disagreement in response to operational decisions a military leader deems unnecessarily risk American lives and economic resources... MORE

“Transforming the US Army for the Twenty-First Century”
June 5, 2021 — In an era of great power competition centered on warfighting domains other than land, the US Army faces difficult and likely painful choices. This reality, coupled with looming budget cuts, means the Army must reconsider its approach to capabilities and total force structure, its role in homeland security, and the relationship between its active... MORE

“Europe- A Strategy for a Regional and Middle Power”
June 4, 2021 — As the European Union deals with yet another crisis— the COVID-19 pandemic—it must adopt a grand strategy based on unity, policy, and proportionality: cohesion over inaction, policy over process, and regional imperatives over global ambitions. An analysis of past strategy documents and a study of current international trends stress the need for a... MORE

Russia’s Forever Wars: Syria and the Pursuit of Great Power Status
June 1, 2021 — Robert E. Hamilton, 2021, the Foreign Policy Research InstituteSeptember 2021 marks the sixth anniversary of the Russian Federation’s intervention in the Syrian civil war. A patient, flexible strategy set against irresolute and muddled Western strategies allowed Moscow to achieve its initial aim of preventing the fall of the Bashar al Assad regime... MORE

Cover for Russia’s Forever Wars: Syria and the Pursuit of Great Power Status

“The Joint Force and Lessons from 1971”
April 10, 2021 — In 1971 Colonel Duane H. Smith analyzed the unified command structure, examined an existing proposal for change, and suggested improvements. He illustrated how this structure must account for the challenges of the contemporary strategic environment and balance several tensions, such as effectiveness versus efficiency, flexibility versus focusing on... MORE

“Moscow in the Middle East”
April 10, 2021 — In 1971 Dr. John R. Thomas documented the involvement of the Soviet Union in the Middle East from the start of the Cold War. Like its name and borders, the motivations for that country’s involvement in the region have changed. Russia today promulgates relationships with the governments of the Middle East in a nonideological, more limited manner... MORE

Cooperation, Competition, and Compartmentalization
April 8, 2021 — Russian-Turkish Relations and Their Implications for the West Robert E. Hamilton, 2021, the Foreign Policy Research InstituteThe relationship between the Russian Federation and Republic of Turkey is one of the most important bilateral relationships in Eurasia today. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) original adversary and one of its... MORE

Cooperation, Competition, and Compartmentalization:
Russian-Turkish Relations and Their Implications for the West

“Soviet Reform–Surprisingly Prescient”
March 27, 2021 — Writing in 1971, economist Dr. John P. Hardt assessed the trajectory of the Soviet economy arguing the need for reform and evaluating the willingness of key actors in the Soviet bureaucracy to support such policies. Fifty years later, Hardt was remarkably prescient with regard to structural difficulties such reform posed and the costs of delay. The... MORE