Recent Publications

“Air Littoral- Another Look”
February 8, 2022 — Assessing threats to the air littoral, the airspace between ground forces and high-end fighters and bombers, requires a paradigm change in American military thinking about verticality. This article explores the consequences of domain convergence, specifically for the Army and Air Force’s different concepts of control. It will assist US military and policy practitioners in conceptualizing the air littoral and in thinking more vertically about the air and land domains and the challenges of domain convergence. ... MORE

“What Went Wrong in Afghanistan”
January 24, 2022 — Critics of the Afghan war have claimed it was always unwinnable. This article argues the war was unwinnable the way it was fought and posits an alternative based on the Afghan way of war and the US approach to counterinsurgency in El Salvador during the final decade of the Cold War. Respecting the political and military dictates of strategy could have made America’s longest foreign war unnecessary and is a warning for the wars we will fight in the future... MORE

SSI Live 87 – China, Taiwan, and the Outlook for 2022
January 24, 2022 — Tensions between China and Taiwan increased dramatically through most of 2021, yet a somewhat calmer, steady state situation has prevailed in recent weeks. What explains this? What role does the 2022 Party Congress in China play, and how might President Xi Jinping approach 2022 and beyond? SSI’s Dr. Roger Cliff joins SSI Live host Dr. John R. Deni... MORE

"The Grand Strategic Thought of Colin S. Gray”
January 10, 2022 — A titan of modern strategic studies, Colin S. Gray distinguished himself from other scholars in the field with his belief that grand strategy is indispensable, complex, and inherently agential. This article identifies key themes, continuities, conceptual relationships, and potential discontinuities from his decades of grand strategic thought. Gray’s statement that “all strategy is grand strategy” remains highly relevant today, emphasizing the importance of agential context in military environments—a point often neglected in strategic practice. ... MORE

SSI Live 86 – Negotiating with Russia Over Ukraine
January 10, 2022 — Negotiations between Russia and the United States, NATO, and the OSCE regarding the situation in/around Ukraine begin this week. How should the West approach those negotiations? SSI Live host Dr. John R. Deni argues the West should strike a hard bargain, even if it risks war in Ukraine.Keywords: Russia, Ukraine, NATO, United States,... MORE

SSI Live 85 – Latin America’s Shift Left
January 7, 2022 — Recent elections in Honduras and Chile appear to indicate that left-leaning parties are on the rise across Latin America. Is this the case, and if so, what are the strategic implications for U.S. security? Dr. Evan Ellis, SSI’s Latin America expert, joined SSI Live host Dr. John R. Deni to discuss Latin America’s shift to the left.Keywords: Latin... MORE

“Defeat Mechanisms in Modern Warfare”
December 27, 2021 — This article explores the current debate about service and Joint operating concepts, starting with the Army’s multi-domain operations concept. It argues for adaptations to an old operational design technique—defeat mechanisms; updates to Joint and service planning doctrine; and discipline regarding emerging concepts. Rather than debate over attrition versus maneuver, combinations of a suite of defeat mechanisms should be applied to gain victory in the future. ... MORE

“Broken Nest- Deterring China from Invading Taiwan”
December 16, 2021 — Deterring a Chinese invasion of Taiwan without recklessly threatening a great-power war is both possible and necessary through a tailored deterrence package that goes beyond either fighting over Taiwan or abandoning it. This article joins cutting-edge understandings of deterrence with empirical evidence of Chinese strategic thinking and culture to build such a strategy... MORE

Parameters Winter 2021–22
November 22, 2021 — What Went Wrong in Afghanistan? | Broken Nest: Deterring China from Invading Taiwan | Sino-Indian Border Disputes in an Era of Strategic Expansions | Rethinking US Strategic Concepts | Defeat Mechanisms in Modern Warfare | The Air Littoral: Another Look In Tribute | The Grand Strategic Thought of Colin S. Gray | Sherman and His Historians: An End to the Outsized Destroyer Myth?... MORE

“Crisis Management Lessons from the Clinton Administration’s Implementation of Presidential Decision Directive 56”
October 12, 2021 — In the wake of the Battle of Mogadishu, Somalia, on October 3-4, 1993, in which 19 American servicemembers were killed and 73 injured, I was tasked to lead an effort to discern the strategic lessons to be learned from the ill-fated US intervention. The study highlighted several shortfalls: the absence of a clear US strategy and whole-of-government plan for the operation, the onset of mission creep as the operation evolved from a humanitarian mission... MORE

“The Battalion Commander Effect”
October 7, 2021 — Statistical evidence suggests that Army battalion commanders are significant determinants of the retention of their lieutenants—especially high-potential lieutenants. Further, this so-called Battalion Commander Effect should be included in brigadier general promotion board assessments and used to inform officer professional military education curricula. ... MORE

“Assessing Risk at the National Strategic Level- Visualization Tools for Military Planners”
October 6, 2021 — The reemergence of great power competition, conflict with near-peer competitor states below the level of armed conflict, and persisting threats from nonstate actors with transnational ambitions and global reach pose challenges for strategists planning, executing, and assessing military operations and strategy. Building on current visualization tools, two proposed models—the National Strategic Risk Abacus and the National Strategic Risk Radar Chart—address these challenges and better depict how the US military may inadvertently contribute to risk at the national strategic level. ... MORE