Recent Publications

“Crisis Management Lessons from the Clinton Administration’s Implementation of Presidential Decision Directive 56”
October 12, 2021 — In the wake of the Battle of Mogadishu, Somalia, on October 3-4, 1993, in which 19 American servicemembers were killed and 73 injured, I was tasked to lead an effort to discern the strategic lessons to be learned from the ill-fated US intervention. The study highlighted several shortfalls: the absence of a clear US strategy and whole-of-government plan for the operation, the onset of mission creep as the operation evolved from a humanitarian mission... MORE

“The Battalion Commander Effect”
October 7, 2021 — Statistical evidence suggests that Army battalion commanders are significant determinants of the retention of their lieutenants—especially high-potential lieutenants. Further, this so-called Battalion Commander Effect should be included in brigadier general promotion board assessments and used to inform officer professional military education curricula. ... MORE

“Assessing Risk at the National Strategic Level- Visualization Tools for Military Planners”
October 6, 2021 — The reemergence of great power competition, conflict with near-peer competitor states below the level of armed conflict, and persisting threats from nonstate actors with transnational ambitions and global reach pose challenges for strategists planning, executing, and assessing military operations and strategy. Building on current visualization tools, two proposed models—the National Strategic Risk Abacus and the National Strategic Risk Radar Chart—address these challenges and better depict how the US military may inadvertently contribute to risk at the national strategic level. ... MORE

Great (Soft) Power Competition- US and Chinese Efforts in Global Health Engagement
October 1, 2021 — Global health engagement, an underutilized strategy rooted in the strengths of soft power persuasion, can lead to more military-to-military cooperation training, help establish relationships that can be relied on when crises develop, stabilize fragile states, and deny violent extremist organizations space for recruiting and operations. Examining Chinese efforts worldwide to curry favor and influence and the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, this article shows health as a medium is a very compelling and advantageous whole-of-government approach to national security policy concerns... MORE

“The Evolution of Hybrid Warfare- Implications for Strategy and the Military Profession”
September 29, 2021 — The concept of hybrid war has evolved from operational-level use of military means and methods in war toward strategic-level use of nonmilitary means in a gray zone below the threshold of war. This article considers this evolution and its implications for strategy and the military profession by contrasting past and current use of the hybrid war concept and raising critical questions for policy and military practitioners. ... MORE

“Reversing the Readiness Assumption- A Proposal for Fiscal and Military Fitness”
September 27, 2021 — Looming budget cuts will necessitate adept management to retain a military capable of competing and winning by avoiding the mistakes made in prior drawdowns. This article presents a framework for government and defense leaders to prepare for the coming drawdown and plan for the necessary capacity of tomorrow across the diplomatic, information, military, and economic framework. ... MORE

“Samuel Huntington, Professionalism, and Self-Policing in the US Army Officer Corps”
September 21, 2021 — Drawing on Samuel P. Huntington’s three phases of self-regulation used to determine if an occupation qualifies as a profession, this article focuses on the third phase of policing and removing those who fail to uphold the standards set forth in the first two phases. It reviews how the Army implemented this phase following the Civil War through the post–Vietnam War years and the implications for the officer corps. ... MORE

America Needs a Permanent Military Presence in the Baltics, and Here’s Why
September 21, 2021 — Dr. John R. Deni, 2021 in Defense NewsWith the Defense Department weighing whether and how to change the U.S. military footprint overseas, it’s time to make the American military presence in the Baltic states durable. Maintaining merely periodic American boots on the ground, sometimes there and sometimes not — especially while a more permanent U.S... MORE

Cover for America Needs a Permanent Military Presence in the Baltics, and Here’s Why

“The Alt-Right Movement and National Security”
September 16, 2021 — Identifying the January 6 insurrection at the US Capitol as an inflection point, this article analyzes the historical relationship between White supremacy and the US military from Reconstruction after the Civil War to the present. The article posits causes for the disproportionate number of current and former members of the military associated with White power groups and proposes steps the Department of Defense can take to combat the problems posed by the association of the US military with these groups... MORE

Germany Has a Math Problem, and It’s about to Get Worse
September 9, 2021 — Dr. Sarah Lohmann, 2021, American Institute for Contemporary German Studies (AICGS)What the numbers say about the energy landscapeIn this traditional state of Bavaria where election banners offering defense of “Heimat” (Homeland) seized the day in the last election, the posters wedged between ancient church domes on cobblestone streets now tout... MORE

Cover for Germany Has a Math Problem, and It’s about to Get Worse

SSI Live 84 – Can the West get Counterinsurgency Right?
September 8, 2021 — The fall of Afghanistan raises serious questions about whether the United States and the West more broadly are able to successfully implement what military practitioners call Foreign Internal Defense, or supporting a friendly foreign government under attack from an internal insurgency. What explains success or failure in these cases? SSI Live host... MORE

SSI Live 83 – Explaining Afghanistan’s Downfall
September 7, 2021 — How did Afghanistan fall to the Taliban after 20 years of effort by the United States and its allies? SSI Live host Dr. John R. Deni invited his SSI colleagues Dr. Chris Mason to address the end of America’s longest war and to help shed light on the key reasons for why Afghanistan fell. Dr. Mason drew on his long experience working in and studying... MORE