Recent Publications

China's Rise and Reconfiguration of Central Asia's Geopolitics: A Case for U.S. "Pivot" to Eurasia
July 29, 2015 — Author: Mr Roman Muzalevsky View the Executive SummaryChina’s emergence as a global actor has questioned the position of the United States as the strongest power and the future of the Washington-led global order. To achieve the status of a truly global player wielding influence in all dimensions of power would require China to leverage its regional... MORE

The Chinese People’s Liberation Army in 2025
July 28, 2015 — Editors: Mr Roy Kamphausen, Dr David LaiView the Executive SummaryThis volume is of special relevance in light of the profound changes occurring within the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA). China’s desire to develop a military commensurate with its diverse interests is both legitimate and understandable. The challenge for U.S. Pacific Command... MORE

Strategic Insights: Fragile States Cannot Be Fixed With State-Building
July 27, 2015 — Dr. Robert D. LambThe problem with the way the international community thinks about and responds to fragile states is not that we do not understand “fragility,” its causes, and its cures, but that we think of them as “states,” as coherent units of analysis. As a result of this strategic level mistake, efforts to build state capacity to contain... MORE

A Hard Look at Hard Power: Assessing the Defense Capabilities of Key U.S. Allies and Security Partners
July 22, 2015 — Author: Mr Gary J Schmitt View the Executive SummarySince World War II, a key element of America’s grand strategy has been its worldwide network of strategic allies and partners. The network has provided the United States an invaluable global presence, enhanced deterrence against adversaries and, when called upon, provided men and materiel to help... MORE

The Approaching Implosion of Venezuela and Strategic Implications for the United States
July 10, 2015 — Dr. R. Evan EllisThe U.S. response to the ever deepening political and economic crisis in Venezuela, and the regime’s increasingly aggressive behavior toward its neighbors and the international community, is compelling evidence that the Barack Obama administration is sincere in respecting the sovereignty of nations of Latin America and the... MORE

Paid to Perform: Aligning Total Military Compensation with Talent Management, Vol. 8
June 30, 2015 — Authors: LTC Michael J Colarusso, COL Andrew O Hall, COL David S Lyle, Major Michael S Walker, Mr Roy A WallaceView the Executive Summary Transforming the U.S. military’s personnel management system is critical to long-run American national security interests, particularly as increasingly capable peer adversaries emerge. Talent management is... MORE

Russian Ballistic Missile Defense: Rhetoric and Reality
June 29, 2015 — Author: Mr Keir GilesView the Executive SummaryRussia's actions in Ukraine are not the only challenge to relations with the United States. U.S. plans for ballistic missile defense (BMD) capability in Europe have led to aggressive rhetoric from Moscow, which continues at the time of this writing even though attention in the West is focused almost... MORE

The Strategic Lessons Unlearned from Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan: Why the ANSF Will Not Hold, and the Implications for the U.S. Army in Afghanistan
June 25, 2015 — Author: Dr M Chris Mason View the Executive SummaryThe wars in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan were lost before they began, not on the battlefields, where the United States won every tactical engagement, but at the strategic level of war. In each case, the U.S. Government attempted to create a Western-style democracy in countries which were decades... MORE

Joining the New Caravan: ISIS and the Regeneration of Terrorism in Southeast Asia
June 25, 2015 — Dr. Zachary AbuzaIntroduction.Since early-2014, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) has made gradual inroads into Southeast Asia. There are an estimated 500 Southeast Asians, not including family and kin, in Iraq and Syria fighting for ISIS, as well as al-Nusra, which at first attracted far more Southeast Asians. Since August 2014, there has... MORE

Does Anyone Really Know What’s Going On? Likely Not.
June 17, 2015 — Mr. Nathan P. FreierNational security elites have fallen into a funk over the recent course of U.S. policy. At first glance, it seems the mythical Midas Touch of the United States as indispensable to solving the world’s most compelling challenges is just that . . . myth. Even a cursory examination of current events betrays a veritable dog’s... MORE

The New Russian Engagement with Latin America: Strategic Position, Commerce, and Dreams of the Past
June 17, 2015 — Author: Dr R Evan Ellis View the Executive SummaryIn many ways, Russia’s expanded engagement in Latin America as a response to escalating tension over the Ukraine was a repetition of its answer to U.S. involvement in the 2008 conflict in the former Soviet Republic of Georgia. In the latter conflict, the U.S. deployed naval forces to the Black Sea... MORE

The Strategic Importance of the Global Oil Market
June 4, 2015 — Author: Dr Leif Rosenberger View the Executive SummaryThis Letort Paper analyzes the new global oil market. It shows how the price of oil reflects the confluence of four interrelated factors. First, the Paper explores why the supply of oil has been soaring in the world. Second, it explains why the demand for oil has been relatively weak. Third, it... MORE