In mid-2020, then-President Donald Trump ordered the Pentagon to withdraw roughly one-third of US forces from Germany, reportedly because of policy differences with Berlin. Given how long it would take to implement such a significant change in overseas posture, the clock ran out on his term before the Department of Defense could complete it. With Trump’s return to the White House, it’s possible he may again order DOD to dramatically reduce forward stationing of forces in Europe, but far earlier in his term.
Assuming the United States maintains some kind of troop presence in Europe—admittedly an open question given uncertainties surrounding the new administration’s approach to European security—relying primarily on rotational presence doesn’t make sense fiscally. Rotating US military forces overseas for continuous nine-month deployments costs more than forward stationing them in allied countries such as Germany or Poland. This may seem counterintuitive, but recent US Army data indicate that recurring annual costs of back-to-back nine-month deployments outweigh those associated with basing units in Europe on a full-time basis.
Background image of soldiers with the US Army’s 2nd Cavalry Regiment fire upon the opposing force during Exercise Saber Junction 23 in Hohenfels, Germany, NATO.int, from article (https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/its-still-more-expensive-to-rotate-military-forces-overseas-than-base-them-there/)