Recent Publications

How to stop Ukraine’s NATO bid from derailing Washington summit
December 4, 2023 — John R. Deni for POLITICO It’s time to tear up the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act. John R. Deni is a research professor at the U.S. Army War College’s Strategic Studies Institute. He’s the author of “NATO and Article 5.” The views expressed are his own.Marking the 75th anniversary of NATO’s founding, the alliance’s next summit in Washington is just... MORE

How to stop Ukraine’s NATO bid from derailing Washington summit
by John R. Deni
Marking the 75th anniversary of NATO’s founding, the alliance’s next summit in Washington is just months away, and allies are eagerly preparing the agenda.

This time around, several member countries are keen to avoid the kind of divisive discussions over Ukraine’s path to membership that publicly played out at last year’s summit in Vilnius — and none more so than hosting nation the United States.

Background image from https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ukraine_%E2%80%93_NATO_Commission_chaired_by_Petro_Poroshenko_(2017-07-10)_48.jpg

Expert Analysis on Latest Attacks in Ukraine
October 6, 2023 — Expert Analysis on Latest Attacks in UkraineUS Army War College | Strategic Studies InstituteMilitary expert John Deni talks to CNN's Laila Harrak about Russian attacks on civilians, and the question of U.S. aid.Watch the video here: Expert analysis on latest attacks in Ukraine | CNN... MORE

Expert Analysis on Latest Attacks in Ukraine
US Army War College | Strategic Studies Institute

Military expert John Deni talks to CNN's Laila Harrak about Russian attacks on civilians, and the question of U.S. aid.
Expert analysis on latest attacks in Ukraine | CNN (https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2023/10/07/exp-ukraine-laila-guest-fst-100702aseg1.cnn)

CNN Host Laila Guest interviews John R. Deni on the current situation in Ukraine.

Photo is a screenshot of the CNN interview.

NATO’s Defense Demands Eastern Front Improvements
July 20, 2023 — John R. Deni The recent summit largely avoided urgent questions about the mismatch between available forces and the Russian threat. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s rather impolitic reaction to the news that his country would not receive a firm timetable for membership in NATO stole the show at the alliance’s summit in Vilnius last week... MORE

NATO Vilnius Summit could have been historic. Instead, it mostly kicked the can down the road.
July 14, 2023 — John R. Deni argues that at the NATO Summit, “there was little significant movement on several key issues, leaving much on the table for the alliance’s 75th birthday summit next year in Washington, DC.” With the Vilnius Summit concluded, NATO observers can take a breath — and take a step back to see what was really accomplished at the meeting,... MORE

NATO Vilnius Summit could have been historic. Instead, it mostly kicked the can down the road.
John R. Deni

We don’t really know which NATO allies are pulling their weight.
July 10, 2023 — Here’s how to fix that. John R. Deni The Defense Investment Pledge agreed to by NATO allies in 2014 is reaching its decade-long finish line. The Alliance’s own data indicate that not all allies will cross that line, as many still spend less than the equivalent of 2 percent of their gross domestic products on defense and several still devote less... MORE

Debate continues over whether to invite Ukraine to join NATO
July 10, 2023 — Podcast appearance. John R. Deni As leaders of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, or NATO, meet at the annual summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, the conversation continues over whether to invite Ukraine to join the alliance and if so, when.Here & Now‘s Celeste Headlee speaks with John Deni, research professor at the U.S. Army War College and a... MORE

Don’t Promise Ukraine NATO Membership Now
May 19, 2023 — Bringing Kyiv into the alliance soon could harden Russia’s resolve, frustrate potential peace efforts, and play into the Kremlin’s propaganda.John R. DeniIn two months, NATO leaders will gather in Vilnius for their annual summit, and leading the agenda will be the West’s ongoing support for Ukraine today and in the years ahead. Prominent experts... MORE

Don’t Promise Ukraine NATO Membership Now
John R. Deni
Bringing Kyiv into the alliance soon could harden Russia’s resolve, frustrate potential peace efforts, and play into the Kremlin’s propaganda.

Putin is Mobilizing. Germany and France are Unlikely to Step Up.
September 26, 2022 — Dr. John R. Deni, Sept 26 2022 in PoliticoJohn R. Deni is a research professor at the U.S. Army War College’s Strategic Studies Institute and a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. He’s the author of “Coalition of the unWilling and unAble.”Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent decision to partially mobilize Russian... MORE

Russian President Putin (from Wikipedia)

European Strategies in Post-Pandemic Peer Competition: Implications for America
September 22, 2022 — Dr. John R. Deni, Sept 25 2022 in Taylor & Francis OnlineThe recent reconceptualization of national and/or defense strategies, hangovers from the sovereign debt crisis, and the impact of the pandemic-induced recession in four of the most powerful European countries – France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom – will have profound implications... MORE

Sweden and Finland are on their way to NATO membership. Here’s what needs to happen next.
August 4, 2022 — Dr. John R. Deni, 2022 in Atlatic Council Sweden and Finland have just cleared a big hurdle on their path to NATO membership with the US Senate’s overwhelming vote to welcome them into the Alliance. While several other allies still need to ratify the expansion, Finnish and Swedish membership in NATO is now not a question of whether but when.Even... MORE

Coalition of the unWilling and unAble
June 9, 2022 — European Realignment and the Future of American GeopoliticsDr. John R. Deni, 2022, forthcoming With the Defense Department weighing whether and how to change the U.S. military footprint overseas, it’s time to make the American military presence in the Baltic states durable. Maintaining merely periodic American boots on the ground, sometimes there... MORE

Coalition of the unWilling and unAble by John R. Deni

Yes, Russia Might Invade a NATO Country. Here’s How the Alliance Should Prepare.
June 1, 2022 — Dr. John R. Deni, 2022 in PoliticoRussia’s invasion has been a wake-up call: It’s time for NATO allies to get back to basics.Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has triggered a careful balancing act on the part of NATO allies, who are eager to see Russia fail but also unwilling to jump into the war directly. This reflects the same challenge that has... MORE