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Aug. 13, 2025

Election, Crisis, and U.S. Opportunity in Bolivia

By Dr. R. Evan Ellis

Bolivia, strategically at the center of South America, faces a critical election that will define its direction in its current profound economic, political and security crisis, its future relationship with the People’s Republic of China (PRC), its engagement with the United States and Western institutions, and its role in the Americas and beyond.

Bolivia is at an inflection point. Although it has perennially faced problems, the current reinforcing effects of economic crisis, corruption fueled by criminal economies, and political fragmentation have opened up the possibility of a center-right, pro-US, market oriented government coming to power in the nation’s August 17 national elections. Indeed, the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) political party that has dominated the country for the past two decades could do so poorly that it might lose its legal standing as a party. At the same time, Bolivia also faces the prospect of expanded political chaos and violence, state capture criminal elements and a resurgent non-democratic left, and a deepened embrace of the PRC and other anti-U.S. actors and policies.
 

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