From the Editor in Chief
C. Anthony Pfaff
Welcome to the Winter 2025–26 issue of Parameters, which consists of an In Focus special commentary, two forums (Indo-Pacific Deterrence and Considerations for Modern Warfare), and the new Strategic Competition Corner.
The PDF version of this issue can be found here.
Features
In Focus
Responsibly Pursuing Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI) for the War Fighter
A. Blair Wilcox and C. Anthony Pfaff
©2025 C. Anthony Pfaff
This special commentary argues that the US Army must adopt a sober and methodical approach to integrating GenAI into military decision-making processes. Drawing parallels to the historical introduction of tanks and airplanes, the authors caution against both underutilizing the technology and being misled by oversold capabilities. Using the GenAI system Donovan as a case study, the commentary highlights critical deficits in current systems, such as a lack of computational and geospatial reasoning and points to procurement challenges that hinder improvement. The authors contend that simply using GenAI to speed up legacy processes will waste its potential. Instead, they advocate for using war gaming and experimentation within professional military education as a stress test to define requirements properly, manage cognitive loads on personnel, and guide the private sector to develop solutions that are truly aligned with the war fighter’s needs, ultimately enhancing military decision making.
Keywords: generative artificial intelligence, GenAI, technology, Center for Strategic Leadership (CSL), Donovan
Indo-Pacific Deterrence
A Hybrid Deterrence Model for Countering China
Lucas Ziller
©2025 Lucas Ziller
This article argues that the United States deterrence-by-denial strategy is insufficient to deter China from attempting forcible unification with Taiwan, due to its neglect of ideological and psychological drivers in the Chinese Communist Party’s decision-making calculus. Unlike existing military-centric models, it introduces a hybrid deterrence framework that integrates denial and punishment across domains, coordinated by a Joint Interagency Organization. The article offers a practical model for deterring ideologically motivated adversaries through synchronized, multidomain planning based on coercion theory, behavioral deterrence literature, and strategic documents from US and Chinese sources.
Keywords: deterrence, interagency, China, Taiwan, operational-level planning
Security Implications of the China-Russia-North Korea Triangle
Brian G. Carlson
This article analyzes the evolving strategic dynamics within the China-Russia-North Korea triangle and their implications for global security. It argues that while the strengthened Russia–North Korea relationship poses risks for China’s global strategy and its major economic partnerships, for now, China also derives some benefits from these close ties and considers the risks to be manageable. Drawing on recent diplomatic developments, military cooperation, and regional responses, the article offers a nuanced assessment of how this alignment affects European and Indo-Pacific theaters. The analysis provides US policymakers with insight into the risks of opportunistic aggression and the strategic calculations driving these partnerships.
Keywords: China, Russia, North Korea, international security, Indo-Pacific, Korean Peninsula
China’s Securitization of Agricultural Imports: A Case of Economic Statecraft Mixed Successes
Gustavo Ferreira and Bert Cramer
This article argues that the People’s Republic of China’s agricultural import diversification from 1995–2023 reflects a strategic effort to reduce reliance on US and allied suppliers while prioritizing national food security. Unlike prior studies focused on production or consumption, this analysis centers on trade patterns of high-value, strategically critical commodities. Using trade data and policy documents, it assesses shifts in supplier dependency, notably toward Brazil. This research offers policy and military practitioners insights into how food security intersects with economic statecraft, revealing vulnerabilities and strategic choices in global supply chains relevant to deterrence and resilience planning.
Keywords: economic statecraft, agriculture, strategic competition, China, international trade
Considerations for Modern Warfare
Drones and the Changing Character of War
Erik A. Davis
©2025 Erik A. Davis
Cheap drones have transformed the character of war by creating a “mass effect” that challenges traditional principles of force concentration. Unlike commentary focused on offense–defense debates or ethics, this article explains how Jevons’ Paradox, the Red Queen Effect, and models like Lanchester’s Laws and Hughes’ Salvo Equations underpin this shift. Drawing on lessons from Ukraine, historical theory, and production trends, it explains why the production of cheap “precision mass” is expected to accelerate. For military and policy practitioners, the analysis offers urgent guidance for adapting tactics, procurement, and doctrine to a battlefield dominated by ubiquitous, low-cost drones—before adversaries exploit this advantage.
Keywords: drone, sense, strike, mass, Jevons
Mission Command’s Asymmetric Advantage Through AI-Driven Data Management
Sorin Adam Matei and Kyle Parris Reed
©2025 Sorin Adam Matei and Kyle Parris Reed
Artificial intelligence can optimize mission command by condensing multisource field data that ascends the decision chain while distilling concise, decision-quality guidance to the tactical edge. Diverging from existing publications, this article positions information asymmetry as a defining pillar of mission command rather than a limitation. This article presents a condensation-distillation framework that manages complexity through data condensation, AI-driven distillation, and conceptual metrics to assess asymmetric information flows. Drawing on military doctrine, algorithmic-warfare literature, and current modernization programs, military practitioners will engage with a systems-thinking perspective, revealing how AI-enabled command and control can enhance decision clarity and reinforce the intent of mission command.
Keywords: information asymmetry, mission command, command and control, artificial intelligence, data management
On Lethality: Toward a More Complete Definition and Formation of the Lethality Framework
John M. Hinck, Robert S. Hinck, Jayson A. Altieri, and David R. Jarnot
©2025 John M. Hinck, Robert S. Hinck, Jayson A. Altieri, and David R. Jarnot
This article argues lethality should be conceptualized as a holistic and regenerative process in which adversarial militaries prepare for, adapt to, and sustain the application of force in conflict. Whereas the literature on lethality is widening to include the human war fighter, attempts to define and measure lethality have proven problematic—a struggle this article seeks to remedy. Drawing on historical, doctrinal, and interdisciplinary perspectives, the authors argue that lethality includes the capacity to kill and elements of learning and adaptation. The proposed lethality framework offers policy and military practitioners a model for assessing and operationalizing lethality in military education, leadership development, and Joint force integration.
Keywords: lethality framework, procedural lethality, adaptive lethality, regenerative lethality, vitality
Strategic Competition Corner
Reframing the Nature of Strategic Competition
Antulio J. Echevarria II
In this Corner, Dr. Antulio J. Echevarria II, professor of strategic competition at the US Army War College, critiques the essential concepts underpinning US doctrine concerning intrastate strategic competition. In this, his inaugural contribution, Dr. Echevarria discusses the shortfalls in the Joint concept of interstate strategic competition, namely, its failure to capture the true nature of that competition. A more extensive reading of the scholarly literature on strategic rivalry suggests the nature of strategic competition should be reframed to align more closely with the nature of war.
Keywords: intrastate strategic competition, interstate strategic competition, doctrine, National Security Strategy, Joint Concept for Competing
Strategy
Arms Control at a Crossroads: Renewal or Demise?
Edited by Jeffrey A. Larsen and Shane Smith
Reviewed by Dr. Ronald J. Granieri, acting chair, Department of National Security and Strategy, US Army War College
Keywords: arms control, strategic domain, cooperative security, deterrence, weapons
Ground Combat: Puncturing the Myths of Modern War
by Ben Connable
Reviewed by Justin R. Lynch, lecturer, Georgetown University
Keywords: land warfare, modern war, force planning, military-technical revolution
Sun Tzu in Space: What International Relations, History, and Science Fiction Teach Us About Our Future
by Gregory D. Miller
Reviewed by Lieutenant Colonel Timothy S. Martin, director, Defense Strategy Course, US Army War College, and Captain Stephanie St. Louis, strategic planner, Office of the Chief of Army Reserve, Fort Belvoir
©2025 Timothy S. Martin and Stephanie St. Louis
Keywords: future, international relations, science fiction, history
The Retreat from Strategy: Britain’s Dangerous Confusion of Interests with Values
by David Richards and Julian Lindley-French
Reviewed by Dr. James D. Scudieri, senior research historian, US Army Heritage and Education Center, US Army War College
Keywords: strategy, grand strategy, army and politics, civil-military relations, British national security, NATO
Military History
The Clausewitz Myth: Or the Emperor’s New Clothes
by Azar Gat
Reviewed by Colonel Darren W. Buss, faculty instructor, Department of Military Strategy, Planning, and Operations, US Army War College
Keywords: Clausewitz, theory of war, military science, history
Outmaneuvered: America’s Tragic Encounter with Warfare from Vietnam to Afghanistan
by James A. Warren
Reviewed by Dr. Marie Louise deRaismes Combes, assistant professor of national security, Department of National Security and Strategy, US Army War College
©2025 Marie Louise deRaismes Combes
Keywords: irregular warfare, leadership, strategy, hubris and arrogance
Valiant Women: The Extraordinary American Servicewomen Who Helped Win World War II
by Lena Andrews
Reviewed by Dr. Christine Cook, director of theories and war, Department of Distance Education, US Army War College
©2025 Christine Cook
Keywords: Allied strategy, World War II, military history, biography
The Dark Path: The Structure of War and the Rise of the West
by Williamson Murray
Reviewed by Dr. John A. Nagl, professor of war-fighting studies, US Army War College
©2025 John A. Nagl
Keywords: military revolution, western warfare, industrial warfare, strategic history, military innovation
Facing the Victorious Turks: How the French Misread the Turkish War of Independence
by Andrew Orr
Reviewed by Dr. Michael S. Neiberg, chair of war studies, US Army War College
Keywords: World War I, allied powers, nationalism, imperialism, intelligence
A Search for Strategy: British-American Military Collaboration in 1942
by John F. Shortal
Reviewed by Colonel William Phillips, US Army retired, assistant professor, Department of Joint, Interagency, and Multinational Operations, Command and General Staff College
©2025 William Phillips
Keywords: British-American Alliance, military collaboration, strategic planning, Combined Chiefs of Staff, diplomatic history
Defining the Mission: The Development of US Strategic Military Intelligence up to the Cold War
by Scott A. Moseman
Reviewed by Dr. Thomas W. Spahr, Francis W. De Serio Chair of Strategic and Theater Intelligence, US Army War College
Keywords: civil-military relations, strategic intelligence, domestic security, national security, military profession, military intelligence
Generals and Admirals, Criminals and Crooks: Dishonorable Leadership in the U.S. Military
by Jeffrey J. Matthews
Reviewed by Lieutenant Colonel Josh VanBuskirk, instructor, Defense Strategy Foundation Course, Department of Distance Education, US Army War College
Keywords: ethics, leadership failure, war crimes, US military history, civil-military relations