Recent Publications - Tag Antulio J. Echevarria II

What is Strategic Rivalry? Why Should We Care?
April 9, 2026 — The states most likely to draw America into its next major crisis or war are not unknowns. They are the usual suspects: The same handful of states that have threatened the United States repeatedly across decades. Interstate rivals have caused roughly 80 percent of history’s wars and the odds of any given rivalry ending peacefully are little better than a coin toss. Yet America’s key strategy documents since the 2017 National Security Strategy have used phrases like great power competition, interstate strategic competition, and strategic competition without acknowledging the essential difference between a competition and a rivalry... MORE

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The 2026 National Defense Strategy
March 17, 2026 — Military strategists Dr. Frank G. Hoffman (retired) and Dr. Antulio J. Echevarria II analyze the 2026 National Defense Strategy... MORE

Decisive Point episode: The 2026 National Defense Strategy

Ukraine’s Not-So-Whole-of-Society at War: Force Generation in Modern Developed Societies
March 11, 2026 — This podcast argues that Ukraine offers a cautionary tale regarding the two main modern models of force generation. Neither the professional high-tech war model, favored by Western militaries, nor the whole-of-society war approach, said to have saved Ukraine in 2014 and 2022, proved successful formulas for Ukraine. Considering that Ukraine is fighting for survival, with Russian forces inside the country, the failure of both models in action has serious implications for NATO member states as they deliberate their choices regarding future force generation... MORE

Decisive Point episode: Ukraine’s Not-So-Whole-of-Society at War: Force Generation in Modern Developed Societies

Strategic Rivalries: How Are They Won?
March 6, 2026 — This article argues strategic rivalries—distinct from general strategic competition—are best understood as contests in which states prioritize weakening a specific opponent’s capacity to compete. It departs from existing work by critiquing the Joint Concept for Competing’s narrow definition and by emphasizing rivalry termination as a central but understudied dimension. Drawing on decades of international relations scholarship and historical datasets of interstate rivalries since 1815, the article analyzes how rivalries end and identifies strategic preclusion as a proactive approach for winning them. Its insights offer policy and military practitioners guidance for shaping competitive strategies short of war... MORE

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Parameters | Spring 2026
March 6, 2026 — Welcome to the Spring 2026 issue of Parameters, which consists of an In Focus special commentary, three forums (Clausewitz and Modern Warfare, Operational Considerations, and Historical Studies), and the Strategic Competition Corner... MORE

Parameters | Winter 2025–26
December 17, 2025 — Welcome to the Winter 2025–26 issue of Parameters, which consists of an In Focus special commentary, two forums (Indo-Pacific Deterrence and Considerations for Modern Warfare), and the new Strategic Competition Corner... MORE

Reframing the Nature of Strategic Competition
December 17, 2025 — In this Corner, Dr. Antulio J. Echevarria II, professor of strategic competition at the US Army War College, critiques the essential concepts underpinning US doctrine concerning intrastate strategic competition. In this, his inaugural contribution, Dr. Echevarria discusses the shortfalls in the Joint concept of interstate strategic competition, namely, its failure to capture the true nature of that competition. A more extensive reading of the scholarly literature on strategic rivalry suggests the nature of strategic competition should be reframed to align more closely with the nature of war... MORE

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Understanding, Deterring, and Preparing for a Great-Power War in the Twenty-First Century
August 6, 2025 — This integrated research project highlights gaps in the US Army’s understanding of, and preparations for, a great-power war in the twenty-first century. The project employs historical analysis to enhance Army leaders’ understanding of great-power wars, provides novel ways to improve US strategies for deterring a great-power war, and explores ways the United States can better prepare for a great-power war... MORE

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